Contender selection refresher

[mikesal57]

from a Follow-Up issue...

[Tim Y]

When this was written, year round racing with a diminishing horse population was not the norm. Recency requirements are NOTHING like they used to be when freshened, even not completely fit horses, often trounce the stale over worked animals that are going to the post too often. One of my good friends with holds many of his good ones to mid to late season here just to take advantage of the set in of this staleness and does very well.

Second, class levels are man made subjective evaluations of the trainer/owner connections are a very poor correlation to the relative pace abilities of the contestants who, by the way, have NO IDEA who they are running against. MOST, short the top levels, classes are "plastic" anyway and each participant being in differing phases of form cycles are improving, staying close to the same, or are falling in abilities. To look at ANY CLASS level as being anywhere close to the same is to state that the pace pressures of that level are cast in stone and nothing is further from the truth.

Follow these guide lines and you will just introduce another un-necessary level of complexity that is mostly irrelevant.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

When this was written, year round racing with a diminishing horse population was not the norm. Recency requirements are NOTHING like they used to be when freshened, even not completely fit horses, often trounce the stale over worked animals that are going to the post too often. One of my good friends with holds many of his good ones to mid to late season here just to take advantage of the set in of this staleness and does very well.

Tim,
Although I cannot agree with you in the entirety, there are certainly situations where at least part of what you say is true. One such situation would be in a race for NW16M where there is a field full of horses that have been running every two weeks trying to beat that condition and fail. Along comes a horse who has had time off (for whatever reason) and runs a sharp race first time back. This horse may well beat a field of those tired horses mentioned above in its’ next race. Of course, this is also to say that this freshened runner HAS had a recent race and is not race weary like his competition.
As I have posted previously, all evidence (500,000 races over 12+years) points to the fact that those horses with a race in the past 45 days win the vast majority of races. On that basis I would say a recent race is still an important factor. My database covering the last 12+ years is certainly "post" Brohamers book, nevertheless, a recent race continues to be a factor in the face of year around racing and a diminishing horse population.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Second, class levels are man made subjective evaluations of the trainer/owner connections are a very poor correlation to the relative pace abilities of the contestants who, by the way, have NO IDEA who they are running against. MOST, short the top levels, classes are "plastic" anyway and each participant being in differing phases of form cycles are improving, staying close to the same, or are falling in abilities. To look at ANY CLASS level as being anywhere close to the same is to state that the pace pressures of that level are cast in stone and nothing is further from the truth.

Follow these guide lines and you will just introduce another un-necessary level of complexity that is mostly irrelevant.

Again I will reference my database of PP’s and results charts noted above. Although “the contestants, who by the way, have NO IDEA who they are running against”, they do seem to become intimately acquainted from the gate to the wire. Those lower level horses who enjoyed false bravado in the post parade soon learn their place in the class hierarchy and fall by the wayside once the gates open.
As with everything else in this game, nothing is 100% and horses do move up in class and win races, however, facts are facts, horses returning to the same class or dropping down in class win considerably more races than those moving up in class.

[tom]

I agree that class is very important at lower levels. NW16 and NW26 is a big jump or drop. With cheap horses having erratic form cycles, it helps you decide if today is a go or a no, and help you decide which pace lines to believe.

I still use pace as the final decision maker, but class and trainer guide me on contender and pace line selection.

Throwing out the standout pace horse off its last line opens the window to long shots.

[Tim Y]

GO to the racing office and see how many races don't fill and how trainers have to compromise to what they THINK the level of their horse should run. It is HORSE vs Horse not trainer vs trainer.

Horses run, trainers unsaddle them afterwards.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

GO to the racing office and see how many races don't fill and how trainers have to compromise to what they THINK the level of their horse should run. It is HORSE vs Horse not trainer vs trainer.

Horses run, trainers unsaddle them afterwards.

First, nowhere in my post do I suggest it is trainer vs. trainer, rather, a field of horses vs. each other.

Second, the racing secretary’s office has nothing to do with the fact that actual results prove horses returning to the same class level as their last race or dropping down in class level from their last race win the majority of races. This is not opinion.

Third, races do not fill for many reasons. It is the job of the racing secretary to card races for the horses he has on the grounds or those who may be in close proximity to his track that may ship in for a race. You can pick up a condition book in the racing secretary’s office for any track in that area. Trainers do not ship to another track in hopes that there will be a race for the horse they are towing in a trailer behind them when they get there. They KNOW there will be. They do not bring a horse eligible for NW4L to run in a NW4L by accident.

“Horses run, trainers unsaddle them afterwards.”
Trainers are also charged with the horses care and preparation. They are also charged with finding the most likely races where the horse in their care can win. This all happens BEFORE the race.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

“Horses run, trainers unsaddle them afterwards.”
Trainers are also charged with the horses care and preparation. They are also charged with finding the most likely races where the horse in their care can win. This all happens BEFORE the race.

There is NO WAY to put anything close to an accurate evaluation on horse care. I know MANY competent trainers who do right by all their horses, EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM, and have 6-8% win percentages....THAT IS until they get a very good charge. Their HORSE runs, the trainer (and I watch this EVERY race day several times from the winner's circle) stands over close by contributing NOTHING to the contest unfolding on the track.

Cam Gambolotti? Louie Rousell? We would NEVER know about them it if weren't for Spend A Buck and Risen Star respectively.

Horses make trainers, not the other way around.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Second, the racing secretary’s office has nothing to do with the fact that actual results prove horses returning to the same class level as their last race or dropping down in class level from their last race win the majority of races. This is not opinion.

.

Of course it is a self determined prophesy because all the trainers are duped into the same melarky thinking that class structure is some compartmentalized entrenched walled off entity.


The interactions of the pace abilities of the participants of the contest TODAY are germane and not much else. That field at that level of form will never meet again just the same way: the MATCH UP in exclusive to the contest and NOT based upon the artificial man made baloney of class levels.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Of course it is a self determined prophesy because all the trainers are duped into the same melarky thinking that class structure is some compartmentalized entrenched walled off entity.


The interactions of the pace abilities of the participants of the contest TODAY are germane and not much else. That field at that level of form will never meet again just the same way: the MATCH UP in exclusive to the contest and NOT based upon the artificial man made baloney of class levels.

Tim,
The subject of this thread was class and recent races not trainers, therefore, there is no reason for that subject to enter the discussion.
Further, I have, on a few occasions on this site, presented conclusive facts with regard to the subject of this thread. As a person who projects one's self as being learned, one would think you would relent when faced with overwhelming and undeniable fact.
None of this is to say that the "methodology" or the "match up" is not valid. That would be ludicrous. It is to say that there are other factors that can be put into play.
Do so called "lower class" animals beat so called "higher class" animals? You bet they do, but in many cases the categorization is flawed. i.e.- if there is a 5K claimer with 10 lifetime wins, in a race with a bunch of 1 for 15's or 1 for 20's lifetime in an ALLOWANCE race and the condition NW1X, I'll take the 5K claimer. Is this horse a "lower class" animal? It depends on how you look at it. The 1 for 15's and 1 for 20's have only proven they can beat a field of maidens. The 5K claimer has demonstrated he can beat fields of multiple winners. In my opinion, the 5K claimer is the "classier" horse. I would not, however, attempt to bet this same 5K claimer if placed in a "money" ALLOWANCE race. At that level the 5K claimer would have NO SHOT!
Horses at increasingly higher class levels run faster than those at class levels below them. If those lower level animals could consistently run faster, they wouldn't be at the lower levels, but they can't, so they are relegated to the levels at which the times they are capable of running allow them to compete. And so it goes, right up the ladder.