Tampa Wed 12/23

[raceman5]

Early DD 3/2-4-5

Bob

[raceman5]

Race 3 Tampa .50 P4

Race 3 2-4
Race 4 3-4-5-7
Race 5 2-6-7
Race 6 3-8

[SilentRun]

Re: R6 I bet the 5 and 8 I am still testing my picks with the Tote X-Ray
but paper play is so boring. I didn't like the 3 horse after 148 days layoff
with weak workouts. The standard I use is at least 1 5f workout within
15 days of the race. This has been statistically verified for layoffs.
The Tote X-Ray at 1 MTP was: 1-8-3-5. I also did not like the #1 for win
as his balance was 9 for the paceline I choose. So that left the 5 and 8.
Too bad they all don't work out like this.

Ernie

[SilentRun]

This is another example of 5F workouts for layoff horses winning or running
ITM. Also I know that for Tampa the early horse has the edge. This race is 6F.
The 2 and 8 horse are early but.....The 2 was off 279 days with no 5F works
and the 8 was off 90 days also without the magic 5F workout. However the
5 horse had two 5F workouts within 15 days of the race. Check out the panel.
This tells me the trainer is not using the race as a workout
but is serious about winning. Also the 5 is the next earlist horse.
The 5 won and paid 13.40.

As an aside at 1 MTP the Tote X-ray was: 2-4-1-5
The 8 horse was not in TX since 4 MTP and based on my stats
so far I would have to have a good reason to bet on a horse that is
not in the top 4 of the Tote X-ray since I am getting such a high probabilty
of winners in the TX top 4.

Writing this down helps me to clarify my decisions but at the same time
maybe some members may find this helpful in layoff handicapping.

Ernie

[mikesal57]

good post Ernie...

Keep this study going...you will get lots of controversy on this subject from a few on here...we have guys that don't use any horse over 90 days ...we have some that use the 1st back from a layoff if it was good any where in PP..we have some that look at trainer stats that shows good % itm off layoff...and of course some that use a line within the last 4 at this distance..

They're comfortable with what they believe,but maybe they can use your study to add help in their selection process.

So if you can continue it will add some more incites on this subject..

thxs

mike