Trying to Understand

[mikesal57]

Hi Guys....

This has been bugging me throughout the day and up till I went to sleep..

Now that I'm up and looking at the screens I can see clearly that something is wrong and explain it to you..

Playing Philly for the 2nd day in a row...I knew that early speed had the advantage....

Look at race #1...screen below...

RDSS has the 11 as the early speed..then the 8 & 2

Now look at the original lines that I chose ...

The 11 had the lead at a 23 & 2 tenths quarter and a hd off a 46 & 3 half

The 8 was 1.3 lts behind a 21& 9 qtr and 2 lts off a 45 & 2 half

How is the 11 the early horse ?

And if you think that maybe the track variant has something to do with it, is there that big a difference between a -5 and +3 and that RDSS uses only half of that value...Does this cause a 3 length difference..

Using raw numbers the 8 would of had a length or 2 over the field, by the half, and I would of had a 9-1 winner...

Can anyone explain this?

thxs mike

[justin13892002]

Mike,

I will do this the best I can, and am pretty sure I am right.

EP is calculated by the velocity of the 1st 2 calls. Formula is

(2640 - (Lengths back * 10)) / Time

So the velocities of EP are as follows.

11----(2640- (0 * 10))/ 46.3----Which calcs to 57.02 Ft/Sec
08----(2640- (2 * 10))/ 45.2----Which calcs to 57.96 Ft/Sec


Which would make the 8 the pace of the race. I am not sure as to why it had the 11 as the top EP horse. I typed the fractions into my EP calculator, and it says 8 was the top ranked EP.

Very good point you do bring up Mike.

[justin13892002]

Mike,

I just noticed this, but maybe Track Variant did have something to do with it? If you look at the ranked Fractals on the Right, it shows the 8 being #1 at the 1st fraction?

[mikesal57]

heres the screen with DTV turned off....

If I'm correct EPR is at the 2nd call ..4 furlongs

lets calculate it.. in tenths

#2 leading at 46.0= 46.0
#4 3.6 behind 45.2= 45.9
#6 leading at 46.8 = 45.8
#8 2 lts behind 45.2= 45.6
#9 1.1 behind 46.6 = 46.6
#11 hd behind 46.3= 46.3

#11 should be 2 LAST ..not 2nd from top

mike

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by justin13892002

Mike,

I just noticed this, but maybe Track Variant did have something to do with it? If you look at the ranked Fractals on the Right, it shows the 8 being #1 at the 1st fraction?

I saw that Justin but I dont know the relationship between the Fractals and EPR..I'm looking at EPR most of the time

[mikesal57]

What are "Fractals"..

Are they adjusted ..unadjusted...at what point of the race is E...1st qtr...2nd qtr?

Is there anything in RDSS that can tell me the postions at the 1ST CALL...

If EPR is at 2call , then 3/4 of the race has been run already...How can I determine the real early horse


mike

[justin13892002]

Mike,

You can calculate the REAL early horse usually based on 1st fraction velocity.

I am sure Fractals are the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractions, based on the actual Velocity of the horse. This seems to be a good starting point in figuring the whereabouts of a horse after the 1st call.

I do have a question in regards to finding lengths back based on velocity.

If the Pace Horse has a velocity of 57.4, how far back is a horse going to be with a 1st fraction velocity of 56.5??? What is the relationship value between Velocity and Lengths?

[Ted Craven]

Hi!

Let me look at the underlying numbers in this race and get back to you all, later today. Also, with some comments on Fractals, velocity calcs, etc.

Ted

[mikesal57]

Great Ted...I was hoping you come to the rescue..lol



mike

[mikesal57]

thxs Jus...I appreciate your responses ... I was looking for an easy way to see whos leading at the 1st call..being a match-up guy we all know the importance of early speed and with tracks like Philly..its that more essential to know whos leading at 1st call..

mike