EVD Jan 26 Race 10 - Pace and Cap

cprescigno · 01-26-2006, 11:29 AM

I checked Santa Anita and didn't see anything there worth risking my money on but this race at Evangeline looks like it has some possibilities. I'm not thrilled about all of the pacelines but it's what I have to work with. I am going to take another looik at them. I don't like projected pacelines. I was able to double check the 3 and it looked alright. Here's the pacelines I used.

cprescigno · 01-26-2006, 11:30 AM

Here's the BL/BL before hides.
EVD Jan 26 Race 10

cprescigno · 01-26-2006, 11:32 AM

And here's the BL/BL After hides.
EVD Jan 26 BL_BL

cprescigno · 01-26-2006, 11:58 AM

I ran the race through Val3 and the results are a bit different. There goes the 5 horse.
EVD Jan 26 Race 10 BL_BL VAL3

cprescigno · 01-26-2006, 12:00 PM

VDC Screen EVD Jan 26 Race 10

Chip Napolitano · 01-26-2006, 12:11 PM

Hi Charlie

Here are my final contenders on Val3

good luck! hope u cash big!

CN

alydar_ David · 01-26-2006, 08:30 PM

Interesting. We see this race differently.

Here's my take on it.

#3 seems to be the sole front runner in a more or less paceless race. He should have plenty left in the tank to finish the job too. At 3-1 he's probably an overlay. I'd think his fair odds are somewhere in the range of 2-1 or even less. I'd call him a legitimate favorite and I don't like to bet against legitimate favorites.

If we hold our breath and close our eyes (and assume #3 doesn't feel like running today for some reason), the value win bets will probably be on #9 at 10-1 and #4 at 12-1.

I might toss a couple of bucks on those as a flier, but unless #3 is scratched I'll be treading very cautiously. This is not a great betting race.

PS- I think #7 is also legitimate. And at 5/2 that means you have to beat two "real" horses to make money.

Oh, and there's nothing wrong with the #6 horse either. I don't think you'll get 6-1 on him though.

alydar_ David · 01-27-2006, 12:33 AM

Nice going, Chip. You had the winner right up there.

#3 was the co-favorite with #7 at five minutes to post. #3 went from 2-1 to 8/5 when the race started.

#6 was scratched.

I wound up making small win bets on #4 at 35-1 and #9 at 12-1. At those odds how can you say "No?" :>)

Check out the superfecta payoff. It was an "ALL-ALL."

10th race - Evangeline Downs - January 26, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
8 Real Silver 10.60 6.20 3.80
5 Diamond Bag 29.40 16.80
9 Hue's Power Man 6.60

$2 Exacta 8-5 326.40
$2 Quinella 5-8 191.80
$2 Superfecta 8-5-ALL-ALL 550.40

---

Not to redboard, but those of you that have the card, check out the eleventh and final race. Tell me you wouldn't have hit it. That race alone makes the whole night!

admin · 01-27-2006, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Nice going, Chip. You had the winner right up there.

10th race - Evangeline Downs - January 26, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
8 Real Silver 10.60 6.20 3.80
5 Diamond Bag 29.40 16.80
9 Hue's Power Man 6.60

$2 Exacta 8-5 326.40
$2 Quinella 5-8 191.80
$2 Superfecta 8-5-ALL-ALL 550.40

---

Not to redboard, but those of you that have the card, check out the eleventh and final race. Tell me you wouldn't have hit it. That race alone makes the whole night!

Nice win Chip
I was out of this race Every once in awhile I do a race like this one
were when I start to hide to my top 5 conenders
and I have many horses with either a top 5 TE or Primary Lines
Score This was the case this race I eneded up with 7 contenders
even after I saw the 6 was a scratch I just had trouble getting to my top 5 when I did I came up with on my BLBL this

David way to go in race 11 trouble is with Val 3 you can't do 4.5 races

cprescigno · 01-27-2006, 04:24 AM

I've been slow all month long. Almost no jobs comng in. Three proposals out, no answers yet. Wouldn't you just know it, today it hits the fan. Picked up five new work orders. It's 4:22 AM and I am just finishing one client.
I didn't even have enough time to take a second look here.
Not that I am sorry it finally got busy for me but it could have picked a better day. Now I'm booked up until Tuesday and still have the additiional three bids out.
What is that ALL/ALL?
It was posted that way yesterday for the Super in the sixth race. Does that mean they sold no tickets and will pay any third and fourth horse?
I have to get some rest. See you guys tomorrow.

Charlie

01-26-2006, 11:29 AM	#1
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	EVD Jan 26 Race 10 I checked Santa Anita and didn't see anything there worth risking my money on but this race at Evangeline looks like it has some possibilities. I'm not thrilled about all of the pacelines but it's what I have to work with. I am going to take another looik at them. I don't like projected pacelines. I was able to double check the 3 and it looked alright. Here's the pacelines I used. Attached Images

01-26-2006, 11:30 AM	#2
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Here's the BL/BL before hides. EVD Jan 26 Race 10 Attached Images

01-26-2006, 12:00 PM	#5
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	VDC Screen EVD Jan 26 Race 10 Attached Images

01-26-2006, 11:32 AM	#3
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	And here's the BL/BL After hides. EVD Jan 26 BL_BL Attached Images

01-26-2006, 11:58 AM	#4
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	I ran the race through Val3 and the results are a bit different. There goes the 5 horse. EVD Jan 26 Race 10 BL_BL VAL3 Attached Images

01-26-2006, 12:11 PM	#6
Chip Napolitano Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 108	Hi Charlie Here are my final contenders on Val3 good luck! hope u cash big! CN Attached Images

01-26-2006, 08:30 PM	#7
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Interesting. We see this race differently. Here's my take on it. #3 seems to be the sole front runner in a more or less paceless race. He should have plenty left in the tank to finish the job too. At 3-1 he's probably an overlay. I'd think his fair odds are somewhere in the range of 2-1 or even less. I'd call him a legitimate favorite and I don't like to bet against legitimate favorites. If we hold our breath and close our eyes (and assume #3 doesn't feel like running today for some reason), the value win bets will probably be on #9 at 10-1 and #4 at 12-1. I might toss a couple of bucks on those as a flier, but unless #3 is scratched I'll be treading very cautiously. This is not a great betting race. PS- I think #7 is also legitimate. And at 5/2 that means you have to beat two "real" horses to make money. Oh, and there's nothing wrong with the #6 horse either. I don't think you'll get 6-1 on him though.

01-27-2006, 12:33 AM	#8
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Nice going, Chip. You had the winner right up there. #3 was the co-favorite with #7 at five minutes to post. #3 went from 2-1 to 8/5 when the race started. #6 was scratched. I wound up making small win bets on #4 at 35-1 and #9 at 12-1. At those odds how can you say "No?" :>) Check out the superfecta payoff. It was an "ALL-ALL." 10th race - Evangeline Downs - January 26, 2006 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 8 Real Silver 10.60 6.20 3.80 5 Diamond Bag 29.40 16.80 9 Hue's Power Man 6.60 $2 Exacta 8-5 326.40 $2 Quinella 5-8 191.80 $2 Superfecta 8-5-ALL-ALL 550.40 --- Not to redboard, but those of you that have the card, check out the eleventh and final race. Tell me you wouldn't have hit it. That race alone makes the whole night!

01-27-2006, 04:24 AM	#10
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	I've been slow all month long. Almost no jobs comng in. Three proposals out, no answers yet. Wouldn't you just know it, today it hits the fan. Picked up five new work orders. It's 4:22 AM and I am just finishing one client. I didn't even have enough time to take a second look here. Not that I am sorry it finally got busy for me but it could have picked a better day. Now I'm booked up until Tuesday and still have the additiional three bids out. What is that ALL/ALL? It was posted that way yesterday for the Super in the sixth race. Does that mean they sold no tickets and will pay any third and fourth horse? I have to get some rest. See you guys tomorrow. Charlie