EVD 9th -- Friday, Jan. 27 - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 01-27-2006, 11:54 AM

EVD 9th -- Friday, Jan. 27

Doing a quick Gestalt of the card, a visual matchup suggests there might be a money maker in this race.

Wot say ye,' gents'? Shall we have a hit n' a giggle?

cprescigno · 01-27-2006, 05:29 PM

Dave,

I'm up for it. Already have the card. Could use a nice hit to open up the weekend.

Charlie

RichieP · 01-27-2006, 05:32 PM

Hi Aly!

Man u pick these real "Beauts" ha?

I NEVER bet 5f races. With real cash anyway.

Here are my final 4. I see the # 4 is 12/1 ml and that comes from a line at todays distance. Big odds on ml. Ok I will bite.

2nd thing I notice is that for a sprint race my four most important categories are Epr-Lpr-Cpr-TT

Each one of the 4 contenders is ranked BEST in one of the four. Nobody dominating here. At least from my "look"

ok Paper betting the # 4 and at 2mtp the highest odds of the remaining 3 horses ( 2,1,5)

Knock em dead matey as I know u are firing bullets here. The REAL kind. Not my paper blanks!

Richie

alydar_ David · 01-27-2006, 06:05 PM

Still haven't done the race, but I have a question.

Richie, my experience with Val3 suggests that whenever a top rated horse shows a "3" BAL they don't seem to win. Granted, that's when displaying five contenders, not four contenders as seen above.

But my question for you is this. Have you found the "3" BAL horses to run out? In other words, have you also found them to be false favorites?

I'll ask Bill too, and anyone else who uses Val2 or Val3.

RichieP · 01-27-2006, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alydar_David

But my question for you is this. Have you found the "3" BAL horses to run out? In other words, have you also found them to be false favorites?

I'll ask Bill too, and anyone else who uses Val2 or Val3.

Good question David. btw with 5 contenders the balance is still 3.

The last 100 horses with a balance of 3 have won a total of 8 races from my records here. This is all DIRT races omitting maidens of any kind ok? btw NO 5f races in this David! lol

Not a very good percentage at all considering their obvious strenght of readouts to have such a low balance.

Horses with a Balance of 2 are even WORSE.

Richie

alydar_ David · 01-27-2006, 06:19 PM

That's good to know. Thanks for checking your records, Richie. It's nice to identify false favorites; gives you more confidence to bet the others. I'm wary of those "3" BAL horses and your experience seems to echo mine.

alydar_ David · 01-27-2006, 07:06 PM

Okie doke. Here goes.

#6 Kind Sir can ran to SP par and is second best on Total Energy. He's the 3-1 on the morning line and the probable favorite. In my opinion this horse is a vulnerable favorite. Why? Because he can't run to 1F or 2C par. That's bad news in a 5F race when you're the favorite. I'll be looking to bet against him.

#1 High Marion is next on the morning line at 7/2. She's almost a carbon copy of the above with early and late pace, but is coming off the claim after running with better recently. The horse is fast enough to win. I'm not wild about the horse running at this class today though, especially at 7/2.

#2 Zip N Go is next at 9/2. He's fast enough and is in form. The bad news is he's cheap and suffers from a Total Energy deficiency. On the other hand, there's a lot of speed in the race, a whole lot, and he might be able to come from behind. Tough call, but so's this whole race. That's the idea. :>)

#3 Far Away Bell is the only horse that can run to 1F par. And he's the only race that can exceed second call par. He only has three speed points; so that's a drawback. But he's number one in Total Energy and he's 10-1 on the morning line. That alone make him a play in my book. Combine that with his pace advantage and you've got a top pick at a price.

#5 Ding Dang Outlaw at 6-1 is the best closer and the trainer is good in this scenario.

I'll bet #3 to win at a price. The rest we'll play by ear.

Fast4522 · 01-27-2006, 07:51 PM

Hey David, here is Fast Fred's Power output for EVD Race 9, with #7 being a scratch.

admin · 01-27-2006, 09:43 PM

Here are two screen from SMT
BL/BL and quad rater stick graphs

I will bet the 1 and 2

cprescigno · 01-27-2006, 10:24 PM

I'm waiting to get closer to odds here. Right now I'm leaning to
WIN/WIN 3-2
Tri 3-2-4
But I'm waiting to see odds. The 6 worries me a bunch here on paper or when I put in his line 4 back or 6 back. 4 back is very recent.

I didn't like the odds so I just made a small 3-2 Exacta to keep things interesting.
Guess I was looking too high on that BL Screen
RESULT
8-1-4 All at real nice prices.

Here is Spec's BL/BL

01-27-2006, 07:51 PM	#8
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	Hey David, here is Fast Fred's Power output for EVD Race 9, with #7 being a scratch. Attached Images

01-27-2006, 09:43 PM	#9
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Smt Here are two screen from SMT BL/BL and quad rater stick graphs I will bet the 1 and 2 Attached Images Last edited by admin; 01-27-2006 at 09:56 PM.

01-27-2006, 10:24 PM	#10
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	I'm waiting to get closer to odds here. Right now I'm leaning to WIN/WIN 3-2 Tri 3-2-4 But I'm waiting to see odds. The 6 worries me a bunch here on paper or when I put in his line 4 back or 6 back. 4 back is very recent. I didn't like the odds so I just made a small 3-2 Exacta to keep things interesting. Guess I was looking too high on that BL Screen RESULT 8-1-4 All at real nice prices. Here is Spec's BL/BL Attached Images Last edited by cprescigno; 01-27-2006 at 11:18 PM.

01-27-2006, 11:54 AM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	EVD 9th -- Friday, Jan. 27 EVD 9th -- Friday, Jan. 27 Doing a quick Gestalt of the card, a visual matchup suggests there might be a money maker in this race. Wot say ye,' gents'? Shall we have a hit n' a giggle?

01-27-2006, 05:29 PM	#2
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Dave, I'm up for it. Already have the card. Could use a nice hit to open up the weekend. Charlie

01-27-2006, 05:32 PM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Hi Aly! Man u pick these real "Beauts" ha? I NEVER bet 5f races. With real cash anyway. Here are my final 4. I see the # 4 is 12/1 ml and that comes from a line at todays distance. Big odds on ml. Ok I will bite. 2nd thing I notice is that for a sprint race my four most important categories are Epr-Lpr-Cpr-TT Each one of the 4 contenders is ranked BEST in one of the four. Nobody dominating here. At least from my "look" ok Paper betting the # 4 and at 2mtp the highest odds of the remaining 3 horses ( 2,1,5) Knock em dead matey as I know u are firing bullets here. The REAL kind. Not my paper blanks! Richie Attached Images

01-27-2006, 06:05 PM	#4
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Still haven't done the race, but I have a question. Richie, my experience with Val3 suggests that whenever a top rated horse shows a "3" BAL they don't seem to win. Granted, that's when displaying five contenders, not four contenders as seen above. But my question for you is this. Have you found the "3" BAL horses to run out? In other words, have you also found them to be false favorites? I'll ask Bill too, and anyone else who uses Val2 or Val3.

01-27-2006, 06:19 PM	#6
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	That's good to know. Thanks for checking your records, Richie. It's nice to identify false favorites; gives you more confidence to bet the others. I'm wary of those "3" BAL horses and your experience seems to echo mine.

01-27-2006, 07:06 PM	#7
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Okie doke. Here goes. #6 Kind Sir can ran to SP par and is second best on Total Energy. He's the 3-1 on the morning line and the probable favorite. In my opinion this horse is a vulnerable favorite. Why? Because he can't run to 1F or 2C par. That's bad news in a 5F race when you're the favorite. I'll be looking to bet against him. #1 High Marion is next on the morning line at 7/2. She's almost a carbon copy of the above with early and late pace, but is coming off the claim after running with better recently. The horse is fast enough to win. I'm not wild about the horse running at this class today though, especially at 7/2. #2 Zip N Go is next at 9/2. He's fast enough and is in form. The bad news is he's cheap and suffers from a Total Energy deficiency. On the other hand, there's a lot of speed in the race, a whole lot, and he might be able to come from behind. Tough call, but so's this whole race. That's the idea. :>) #3 Far Away Bell is the only horse that can run to 1F par. And he's the only race that can exceed second call par. He only has three speed points; so that's a drawback. But he's number one in Total Energy and he's 10-1 on the morning line. That alone make him a play in my book. Combine that with his pace advantage and you've got a top pick at a price. #5 Ding Dang Outlaw at 6-1 is the best closer and the trainer is good in this scenario. I'll bet #3 to win at a price. The rest we'll play by ear.