Grade 1 clark - churchill - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 11-26-2010, 03:47 AM

The entrants

Bill Lyster · 11-26-2010, 03:49 AM

5-6-7-8-9

Bill Lyster · 11-26-2010, 03:57 AM

10 and 11

Bill Lyster · 11-26-2010, 03:58 AM

early pace scenario:

Thse are horse that could take the lead. Dubious faded off the fast early at Keeneland in last, but will fight if he gets 48.2 and 112.6. Redding can run early or early presser. His quarter miel time at HAW was 23.25, which matches up well eith the 23.4 from LS.

Regal need open lead; the quarter time at Sar was 24.7. So I chose Redding - 1 47 - 110.8 - 137.1 as my projected pace, tossing the 1 and 9

Bill Lyster · 11-26-2010, 04:09 AM

Contenders who can run against this pace and some of the tandems:

Thw 2 cant pass the 3; The 4 might be a contender is the 5 gives way, and the 5 getting the mile in 137 will be under pressure from the 3, so I am eliminating the 4 and 5 as well. The 7 will be running late but lost to the 3 by 3.3 lengths in last, out.

I think the 8 is interesting. He closed against 111.2 in line 3 and his last at Delaware backs down to 136.6

The 10 is slow.

My prime pick is the 3 with the 8 and interesting second choice at decent odds.

Bill Lyster · 11-26-2010, 04:20 AM

See the following screen shots to see how the 8 and 3 compare:

Win Willy's adjusted time at neat todays pace of race and the finish time in 1 sec + faster; segments shows 7.3 advantage at finish; perceptor has big advantage and in BL, it is tops.

Odds are 10/1

Good luck to all and I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving.

Big Willy

PeteC · 11-26-2010, 01:48 PM

Hi Bill-

Very nice lay out of your thinking on this race.

I ended up with the #5 as the best of the early and #3 best of the OTE group. I'll stick with #5 on top and #3 to finish second.

Thanks for posting this up!

Pete

Bill Lyster · 11-26-2010, 08:50 PM

results:

Finished 1st but DQ'd....Merry Christmas

11-26-2010, 03:47 AM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	Grade 1 clark - churchill The entrants Attached Images

11-26-2010, 03:49 AM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	clark grade 1 9f Furlongs, Friday 5-6-7-8-9 Attached Images

11-26-2010, 03:58 AM	#4
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	The early contenders early pace scenario: Thse are horse that could take the lead. Dubious faded off the fast early at Keeneland in last, but will fight if he gets 48.2 and 112.6. Redding can run early or early presser. His quarter miel time at HAW was 23.25, which matches up well eith the 23.4 from LS. Regal need open lead; the quarter time at Sar was 24.7. So I chose Redding - 1 47 - 110.8 - 137.1 as my projected pace, tossing the 1 and 9 Attached Images Last edited by Bill Lyster; 11-26-2010 at 04:06 AM. Reason: added pace line commentary

11-26-2010, 04:20 AM	#6
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	Why I like the 8 in this race See the following screen shots to see how the 8 and 3 compare: Win Willy's adjusted time at neat todays pace of race and the finish time in 1 sec + faster; segments shows 7.3 advantage at finish; perceptor has big advantage and in BL, it is tops. Odds are 10/1 Good luck to all and I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving. Big Willy Attached Images Last edited by Bill Lyster; 11-26-2010 at 04:24 AM. Reason: added comments

11-26-2010, 08:50 PM	#8
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	results: Finished 1st but DQ'd....Merry Christmas Attached Images

11-26-2010, 03:57 AM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	last horses 10 and 11 Attached Images

11-26-2010, 04:09 AM	#5
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	clark grade 1 9f Furlongs, Friday Contenders who can run against this pace and some of the tandems: Thw 2 cant pass the 3; The 4 might be a contender is the 5 gives way, and the 5 getting the mile in 137 will be under pressure from the 3, so I am eliminating the 4 and 5 as well. The 7 will be running late but lost to the 3 by 3.3 lengths in last, out. I think the 8 is interesting. He closed against 111.2 in line 3 and his last at Delaware backs down to 136.6 The 10 is slow. My prime pick is the 3 with the 8 and interesting second choice at decent odds. Attached Images Last edited by Bill Lyster; 11-26-2010 at 04:16 AM.

11-26-2010, 01:48 PM	#7
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Hi Bill- Very nice lay out of your thinking on this race. I ended up with the #5 as the best of the early and #3 best of the OTE group. I'll stick with #5 on top and #3 to finish second. Thanks for posting this up! Pete

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