2nd Opinion' please

[pktruckdriver]

Belmont Race 3

It seems that using the last 3 rule for Paceline selctions, if under 90 days, no offtracks and same distance, etc...I choose line 2 for horse 5 over line 1 for muddy track, but then there is the 6 horse, who I choose the muddy line because next line's over 200 days old, so I do not choose it. If I use the 1st line he is dead last and not worth consideration, guess this is where your gut must come into it, but I tend to be steadfast on my PL selection process, consistency I am told is more important, as changing each race never allows you to properly evaluate yourself, I think anyway.

Now the only Tandems in the race are the 5 and 6, which the 6 wins handily, and it seems the 5 had no trouble in the race , he just chose not to run that day, and this horse is a chronic 2 and 3 place horse (the 5 horse).

But to trust my process and believe the 15-1 ML a so-so bet or a great bet, this is where a 2nd or 3rd opinion may help me, please.

[noddub62]

when in doubt, pass

[partsnut]

pktruckdriver

2nd Opinion' please

---

Belmont Race 3

It seems that using the last 3 rule for Paceline selctions, if under 90 days, no offtracks and same distance, etc...I choose line 2 for horse 5 over line 1 for muddy track, but then there is the 6 horse, who I choose the muddy line because next line's over 200 days old, so I do not choose it. If I use the 1st line he is dead last and not worth consideration, guess this is where your gut must come into it, but I tend to be steadfast on my PL selection process, consistency I am told is more important, as changing each race never allows you to properly evaluate yourself, I think anyway.

Now the only Tandems in the race are the 5 and 6, which the 6 wins handily, and it seems the 5 had no trouble in the race , he just chose not to run that day, and this horse is a chronic 2 and 3 place horse (the 5 horse).

But to trust my process and believe the 15-1 ML a so-so bet or a great bet, this is where a 2nd or 3rd opinion may help me, please.

Hi Patrick,

I believe this race may have some potential.

(#5) Eltish Star is the best sustained horse and has the best final fraction.
If the pace goes fast then you have yourself a great bet.
However, there is always the possiblity of a slow pace but I would doubt it. Then (#1) Jack London is the clear threat.
Judging from the speed points in this race (28X1) To me, this indicates there will be some pace pressure in this race. I see the (#1 Jack London) as the counter energy horse and to round out an exacta box I would throw in the (#6 Mineswept) for a 1,5,6 box.

[pktruckdriver]

Thanks for the reply guys, I will follow it up to post time.

Best Capping Always

Patrick

[Ted Craven]

I agree with Bill H (partsnut) re wagers.

As to your paceline selection question, IMO, use the ranking readouts the program gives you (e.g. Perceptor Total) for line selection guidance. The #5's 2nd line is its best recent route and in line with what TE it has run to in its recent good lines. And #6 - use the muddy line of its last - it's the best evidence you have of what it can do now - it's the best ever line but it still puts the horse at the bottom of TE and BLBL.

The #5 is not a great horse, or a great bet, but at the price it may be a good bet. Try putting in #5's lines 2,3,4 and see how they compare to the rest of the field, if this gives you more confidence. Sometimes too much handicapping is 'too clever by half'. Also, you're not just asttempting to win a bet in this race by your consistent paceline selection and readout interpretation - you're really trying to win the next 10 races with similar scenarios: you may lose several of those 10, but you need to be in the game when some of them hit.

If it were me, and offered near ML odds on the #5, I'd spread my bet to Win and Place.

Good luck if you bet it!

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

I agree with Bill H (partsnut) re wagers.

As to your paceline selection question, IMO, use the ranking readouts the program gives you (e.g. Perceptor Total) for line selection guidance. The #5's 2nd line is its best recent route and in line with what TE it has run to in its recent good lines. And #6 - use the muddy line of its last - it's the best evidence you have of what it can do now - it's the best ever line but it still puts the horse at the bottom of TE and BLBL.

The #5 is not a great horse, or a great bet, but at the price it may be a good bet. Try putting in #5's lines 2,3,4 and see how they compare to the rest of the field, if this gives you more confidence. Sometimes too much handicapping is 'too clever by half'. Also, you're not just asttempting to win a bet in this race by your consistent paceline selection and readout interpretation - you're really trying to win the next 10 races with similar scenarios: you may lose several of those 10, but you need to be in the game when some of them hit.

If it were me, and offered near ML odds on the #5, I'd spread my bet to Win and Place.

Good luck if you bet it!

Ted

Thanks Ted

I was thinking if ML odds stayed close, I would maybe WP, but a PS would be best bet maybe given the horse's tendency to place or show, and this wagering strategy is only for this situation, not every race, as per the capping tells me.

[tfm]

Two points: The 1 is a TERRIBLE bet. He's a short price and I'm not confident (for a number of reasons) that he'll be able to handle (even) this less than stellar field. So, betting against him is probably a good idea. Unless, of course, he wins and you nail a one number exotic.

Not sure the 5 is the horse to play against the 1. Though the 5 might look good in terms of late kick for someone looking at races from a strictly numeric standpoint, in point of fact, he's really a TERRIBLE CLOSER. He only runs in races that fall apart. Moreover, he always seems to need help --- even in collapsing races. By this I mean that he needs another horse (or horses) to make prior moves. I don't see this race falling apart enough for the 5 to be a factor.

This is a PASS race for me as I don't have a 'positive' opinion and anyone of those not mentioned in the race could win it.

[tfm]

Good hit on the 5.

Belmont - Race 3
# Win Place Show
5 $21.40 $6.20 $3.90
6 . $3.20 $2.60
3 . . $2.80

Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$1.00 Exacta 5-6 $29.75

[partsnut]

Ted Craven:

I agree with Bill H (partsnut) re wagers.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Partsnut:

(#5) Eltish Star is the best sustained horse and has the best final fraction.
If the pace goes fast then you have yourself a great bet.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Partsnut:

Judging from the speed points in this race (28X1) To me, this indicates there will be some pace pressure in this race. I see the (#1 Jack London) as the counter energy horse and to round out an exacta box I would throw in the (#6 Mineswept) for a 1,5,6 box.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ted, I hope you cashed on this one. It paid well.
I had the exacta and the winner.

Thanks Patrick, you were right on. You put me on a winning race.

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by tfm

Good hit on the 5.

Belmont - Race 3
# Win Place Show
5 $21.40 $6.20 $3.90
6 . $3.20 $2.60
3 . . $2.80

Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$1.00 Exacta 5-6 $29.75

yes Sir 1st wagers in a long time( since Belmont) and I get a nice hit , Thanks to RDSS, and you guys.

I should stop now as I almost doubled my ADW deposit of 50.00, this would be the wise thing to do, or be very selective and have good pacelines for every runner in a race before wagering, no surprises

Thanks