Columbus Day Monmouth Dirt Route - TM 106 - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 10-09-2011, 07:59 AM

Here is the 5th on Monday from Monmouth

RichieP · 10-09-2011, 08:01 AM

,,

Bill Lyster · 10-10-2011, 12:21 PM

Lots of questions in this one for me, but here goes:

1 EP
2 P
3 EP
4 E
5 E/P
6 E-TURF-
7 S

The best races for the 4 are on the lead. the midsummer race, line 4 shows a win off a 111.7, but its the fastest race for this horse and probably influenced by hard track as paces since then are 112 give or take. This horse appears to outbreak the 5 having started 2nd and 3rd.

The 5 does not need lead, but its line 2 looks to be repeatable and it will fight for the lead, so my pace today is:

23.5 - 47.6 - 111.6

The mystery horse for me is the 6, as far as we know a turf only horse that needs open lengths; has been successful running 134.4 mile times and 135.4 in its last. The 6 furlong time has been in the high 110's, which is better than this field. The best of the rest converting to mile times is the 3 = 137.3.

In order the best showings of this field are off 2nd call times of 111.2, 112.7, 111.6, 111.7, 111.6 and for the 7 112.2

I think that this provides enough cushion to take the 6 as the primary pick. although this horse has been hiding in starter handicaps for 16K. The 4 and 5 have won at NW1X level, but more recently at or near this race level.

The 3 runs from 5th so with the 4-5-6 looking to combat the lead, he will be my second choice.

So 6 and 3.

Good luck

mikesal57 · 10-10-2011, 01:01 PM

scratch 1a

5-3 for me

PeteC · 10-10-2011, 02:30 PM

Hey guys, I’m going to get back to a “horse vs horse” matchup style here and see if that helps me…

I projected the pace at about 47.0 112.0 and I see several e/p types and as Bill said the mystery 6 horse, an E coming off of the turf.

1 vs 2 I’ll take the 2. #1 used to run well against 47 111 but recently has failed against slower and runs really close to the pace and will have to deal with the 6. #2 has run well from 4th and 5th at 1C and seems to be a better fit for this race.

2 vs 3 I’ll take #3. Has run well from 2nd 4th and 5th at 1C and has a faster power line (4) than the 2.

3 vs 4 Still on #3, the 4 usually likes to be up closer to the pace and should deal with too much pressure imo here.

3 vs 5 5 is another who likes to be 1-2-3 early. This one ran against the dirt fplr and did pretty well. This decision comes down to my feeling that there will be too much pressure by the 6, so I will still take the 3.

3 vs 6 this may be the race. Early or ote? The 6 fought against a faster pace than the others can handle on turf. My gut feel is for ote though and I will stick with the 3.

3 vs 7 7 is a deep closer. I focused in on line 5 and when I compared this to the 3’s power line I prefer the 3.

#3 is my pick.

Bill Lyster · 10-10-2011, 05:43 PM

The 3 hoss;

RichieP · 10-11-2011, 06:38 PM

EVERYONE is a winner here! Nice work man

10-10-2011, 01:01 PM	#4
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	scratch 1a 5-3 for me __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack Last edited by mikesal57; 10-10-2011 at 01:07 PM.

10-10-2011, 05:43 PM	#6
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	And the winner is.... The 3 hoss; Attached Images

10-11-2011, 06:38 PM	#7
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	EVERYONE is a winner here! Nice work man __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

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10-09-2011, 07:59 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Columbus Day Monmouth Dirt Route - TM 106 Here is the 5th on Monday from Monmouth Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-09-2011, 08:01 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	,, Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-10-2011, 12:21 PM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	scratch 1A Lots of questions in this one for me, but here goes: 1 EP 2 P 3 EP 4 E 5 E/P 6 E-TURF- 7 S The best races for the 4 are on the lead. the midsummer race, line 4 shows a win off a 111.7, but its the fastest race for this horse and probably influenced by hard track as paces since then are 112 give or take. This horse appears to outbreak the 5 having started 2nd and 3rd. The 5 does not need lead, but its line 2 looks to be repeatable and it will fight for the lead, so my pace today is: 23.5 - 47.6 - 111.6 The mystery horse for me is the 6, as far as we know a turf only horse that needs open lengths; has been successful running 134.4 mile times and 135.4 in its last. The 6 furlong time has been in the high 110's, which is better than this field. The best of the rest converting to mile times is the 3 = 137.3. In order the best showings of this field are off 2nd call times of 111.2, 112.7, 111.6, 111.7, 111.6 and for the 7 112.2 I think that this provides enough cushion to take the 6 as the primary pick. although this horse has been hiding in starter handicaps for 16K. The 4 and 5 have won at NW1X level, but more recently at or near this race level. The 3 runs from 5th so with the 4-5-6 looking to combat the lead, he will be my second choice. So 6 and 3. Good luck

10-10-2011, 02:30 PM	#5
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Hey guys, I’m going to get back to a “horse vs horse” matchup style here and see if that helps me… I projected the pace at about 47.0 112.0 and I see several e/p types and as Bill said the mystery 6 horse, an E coming off of the turf. 1 vs 2 I’ll take the 2. #1 used to run well against 47 111 but recently has failed against slower and runs really close to the pace and will have to deal with the 6. #2 has run well from 4th and 5th at 1C and seems to be a better fit for this race. 2 vs 3 I’ll take #3. Has run well from 2nd 4th and 5th at 1C and has a faster power line (4) than the 2. 3 vs 4 Still on #3, the 4 usually likes to be up closer to the pace and should deal with too much pressure imo here. 3 vs 5 5 is another who likes to be 1-2-3 early. This one ran against the dirt fplr and did pretty well. This decision comes down to my feeling that there will be too much pressure by the 6, so I will still take the 3. 3 vs 6 this may be the race. Early or ote? The 6 fought against a faster pace than the others can handle on turf. My gut feel is for ote though and I will stick with the 3. 3 vs 7 7 is a deep closer. I focused in on line 5 and when I compared this to the 3’s power line I prefer the 3. #3 is my pick.