(MNR 11-05-11) R3 Using RDSS 2

[partsnut]

(MNR 11-05-11) R3 Using RDSS 2

My projected order of finish would be: 7,9,2,5
My top 2 are highlighted and underlined.

[partsnut]

Results - Race 3

I missed this one but 2 out of 3 ain't too bad.

[Bill V.]

Nice work with RDSS

Here is a friendly suggestion For race 3 try again and dont use any 5.0 lines

I did the race just now. I did not bet it, My lines would be

1-1
2-1
3-1
4 No line
5 No
6 No
7-3
8-NO
9-1
10-2


Results are the exaxt same Val 4 and RDSS2
Then I hide to the top 5 total energy -primary line score

then I take out the worse ranked horse on the Val screen #7
(my own liking)

              MNR1105 3 5.5 D CL 3+F $8,100 CP=$5,000 7:50PM
 
                      BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (VAL4)
 
HIDE#  PNcNAME LdT  SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS   TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE
 
    2   3 FURIO1    78    4  23.3     EVEN   MNR 6.0D  5/1   19   3
 
    3   7 DANCI3    77    3  22.8     EVEN   MNR 6.0D  9/2   42   4
 
    4  10 TRUST2    75    6  19.5      2-1   MNR 5.5D  4/1   20   4
 
    1   1 CHA C1    72    7  16.8      3-1   MNR 6.0D  6/1   11   3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                     SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
                  ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐          │    PRIM     │  SUPP   │
                  │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│          │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│F│E│T│T│
┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│X│N│S│P│
│#│PNcNAME LdT│ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│ │T│ │P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤
│1│ 1 CHA C1  │ 72│ 7│4│4│23│4│19│4││4│4│4││EAR│ 0.8││2│4│4│1│4│4│4│4│4│4│3│4│
│2│ 3 FURIO1  │ 78│ 4│3│1│12│1│ 7│1││1│2│2││EAR│    ││1│3│1│3│2│1│1│1│1│2│1│2│
│3│ 7 DANCI3  │ 77│ 3│2│2│14│2│ 9│2││3│1│1││EAR│ 2.5││3│1│2│2│1│2│3│2│3│1│2│1│
│4│10 TRUST2  │ 75│ 6│1│3│21│3│15│3││2│3│3││EAR│ 1.9││4│2│3│4│3│3│2│3│2│3│4│3│
└─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘

[partsnut]

Bill V.

Nice work with RDSS

Here is a friendly suggestion For race 3 try again and dont use any 5.0 lines

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Your suggestions and advice are always welcomed and well taken.
You know these programs better then most.

Being new to RDSS, I welcome and appreciate your constructive advise.

Thanks.

Bill H.

[For The Lead]

I can't agree with Bill V on this one.

Here is a post I put up today that is very relevant since it is about last night's races at MNR. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=7872&page=2
First you have to pay attention to "how" the winners ran their races.

With regard to the 3rd race, I don't think it wise to leave out the best early horse in the race.
I am very aware of the nuances of using different distance lines in different distance races, but in this case, all there is in the way of recent lines for the #5 horse are 5 furlong races.
The idea is to use similar distance. Well, 5 furlongs is just 1//2 furlong shorter than today's 5.5 furlong race. Sometimes you just have to use what is available as long as the line is similar, which in this case, it is.
Completely eliminating a "primary contender" to win the race could certainly be detrimental to your bankroll.
As the race played out, the #5 led from the start (as expected) and into the stretch, where the #10 horse, who had been chasing in 2nd place (as expected), overtook the #5, winning the race with the #5 finishing 2nd.

Record keeping is a very good aide in helping you to know "how" the winner's are running their winning races. It helps you to identified the necessary style as you handicap the races. If early horses are winning, you certainly do not want to leave out early horses. If horses are winning from off the pace, you certainly don't want to leave those runners out.

For an example, take a look at the charts for the Breeders Cup races. Do you think it was "by accident" that most of the races were won from OFF the pace? Do you you think it was just because those races were for the best horses currently in training? Guess again. Churchill Downs is generally not real kind to early style horses.

Of course, if you like to bounce around from one track to another just looking for the "previously" fastest horse in the race and without regard to "how" winner's are running their winning races, well, that is another method and it doesn't require any record keeping.

A guy told me once, "the fastest horse in today's race is ALWAYS the horse that gets to the finish line 1st!" I believe he was right, regardless of how the winner got there.

[Bill V.]

Hi FTL
since you dont agree with my work up of the race
And I respect your opinion Since I posted my pace lines
can you tell your suggested pacelines ?

I will be happy to enter them into RDSS and or Val 4

Thanks
Bill

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi FTL
since you dont agree with my work up of the race
And I respect your opinion Since I posted my pace lines
can you tell your suggested pacelines ?

I will be happy to enter them into RDSS and or Val 4

Thanks
Bill

Hi Bill,

Actually I wasn't disagreeing with your paceline selection. I was disagreeing with your option to throw out the #5 horse for the reasons I stated above.
In fact, except for throwing out the #5, I agree with most of the horses you used and the pacelines you chose for them. The only difference between yours and mine would be these. I would not have used a line for the #7 horse (no useable line in the last 90 days. I know, it's close, but I have to draw the line somewhere). I would have used line 1 for the #10 horse. And in the case of the #5 horse, I would look at BOTH lines 1 and 3.

Now in addition to that, in this post http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=7872&page=2 I listed my top 3 contenders for the 1st and 2nd calls. If early horses are winning, I don't care about final time or final time speed ratings. Early horses will give you all you need when they win. In that case, I am most concerned with which horse(s) will be up close. (the top 3 positions at the 1st and 2nd calls).

This is all in connection with this post. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7872
So in the case of last night at MNR, if you were looking for the early horses, which is the style of horse(s) winning, the 1st and 2nd call horses should be of the most concern to you.

You can see at one of these links that last night at MNR, 8 out of 9 winners were 1st or 2nd at the first call. 7 out of eight winners were 1st or 2nd at the second call.

Tonight, 5 out of 9 winners were 1st or 2nd at the first call (7 out of 9 were 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the first call) and 7 out of 9 were 1st or 2nd at the second call.

So in the previous two nights at MNR, there were a lot of winners that were running up close, if not on the lead, at the first or second call. This tells me what I need to look for...early horses.

I don't make my betting decisions strictly by the information I get from line selections. For me it is just one of the tools I use, but that's me.

Anyway, you have my choice of horses and lines, I think it would be cool to see you run them through RDSS or VAL4 or whatever. I have already run them through my own program and just for the heck of it, through my old ENERGY program. I can tell you this, neither of those programs "picks" the winner in the traditional sense, but both programs get the right early horses.

As always, good luck to you.