Questions

[dirty moose]

Hey guys. So after a long weekend of capping. (for me at least. Capped 4 cards)
I have a bunch of questions after doing all that capping.

I'll start with this. A horses best line. When is it ok to use the very best line a horse has?

I have a few more later on.
Thanks guys.

[Bill V.]

I don't get too caught up in too many rules
I have no problem using a horses best ever line if its a plus line
and its recent. Some races need to use the best ever line
Like todat at Parx there was a Starter 25 for horses that have
started for a claiming price of 25,000 and never won 2 races
So who fits this condition ? and have good plus recent races Horses that have recently broke their maidens in MC 25 or higher races or horse how have tried
this condition but have run into better horses.
In the race all my contenders just ran their best ever races

This also happens in most maiden races

anyway if the Best ever line is recent like less than 40 days
I don't see a problem at all

Trainers and owners want to run a horse when its at it best form
and often horses that just miss come right back and win

[Hoof 11]

I tend to avoid using a horses best line most of the time, but there is the odd time that i will. I got burned today by not using a horses best line, it looked to me that the horse was on the downward slide of it's form cycle, but to my disappointment, i was wrong!

What i recommend is, look at the horses best line in the Adjusted Speed Ratings, and what led up to the horse running that line, if you see a similar climb/pattern in the ASR' leading up to today, then you have a shot at the horse repeating that same line. Look for form cycles in the ASR', the way Ted has the ASR layed out is brilliant, you can see at a quick glance where the horse is in his/her form cycle. If you see a horse that has one amazing line, and the rest of the lines are mediocre, then there is very little chance that he/she will repeat that same best line. When you have a horse that has repeated it's best line 2 or 3 times, then there is a good chance of it happening again, you just have to figure out when that is going to happen.

A horse will tell you what it's capable of doing early in it's career, by the time it's 3 or 4 it has shown you it's best and worst, and as time goes by the horse accumulates injuries that will inevitably slow the horse down. As Bill mentioned, recency is important, if the horses best line was 2 years ago, there's very little chance of it happening again. If the horse puts up a personal best at the beginning of a season, there is a chance he or she can repeat that again this season, but it comes down to the horses form cycle characteristics..... but that's for another day.

It's really a judgement call when it comes down to it, experience will determine whether to use a best line or not, and even then you are at the mercy of the racing gods.

[Mark]

A horse race is a number of horses competing against a pace set by one or several animals. If a horse runs his best race, all other things being equal he was able to obtain his comfort zone running position and compete against a pace at which he excelled.
What is the pace of today's race? That's the question you should be asking. That will tell you what line to use.

[dirty moose]

Thank you for the great answers guys. I will talk all of into consideration as I keep learning. Mark, I haven't learn the match up completely yet (It's on the list) so I still a little difficult for me to predict pace.

I also want to come up with a streamlined way of capping a race, sort of a check list of questions. I find something that I forget to ask my self something about a particular horse.

I always start by asking my self; What are the race conditions? And I go from there.
What are some of the things you guys ask yourselves as your picking pace lines? I'm sure I ask some of the same but I'm also sure there's some I'm not asking my self.

Thanks again fellas.

[Mark]

In my view you start with Jim Bradshaw's 5 step approach to the Match Up.

Do your work!!