Track bias

[Segwin]

On page 5 of the matchup red manual it gives an example of 3 horses going from Belmont to Hollywood park. It talks about the win energy profile and how it is vastly different between the two tracks.

It also goes on to state that "As matters proceed, it became undeniably evident that the Start in Methodology is extremely sensitive to track biases.

Obviously there are track bias numbers out there that they worked with. Does anyone know where they got these numbers from?

Thanks.

[Bill V.]

They used their models and track profiles

[Mark]

Track Bias, in my opinion is most often an illusion. It is a product of the following in order of importance:
1. The energy distribution and running styles of the individual contestants in today’s race.
2. Track maintenance
3. Weather
Candidly, I believe the entire subject was created to explain the failings of Mainstream handicappers and so-called experts. It’s basically just Physics.
Races filled with equally matched Early runners will invariably run Presser or Sustained. Track maintenance can be manipulated to favor different running styles and energy distribution. The best example of this is the sealing of a track surface prior to inclement weather. A hard packed surface will favor Early energy distribution while a loose surface will favor horses that distribute their energy late. Large exotic wager carry overs will often lead to track preparation the opposite of what has prevailed recently.
Track maintenance where inclement weather is concerned is now a science. We see this science being practiced in all professional sports that play on an outside surface. I can remember days at Golden Gate Fields in the 90s after a big winter storm when the track was beginning to dry out all you had to do is bet the #1 and #2 Sustained horses and they would reward you handsomely. However, off tracks greatly reduce handle so track management has a vested interest in keeping tracks suitable for a “Fast” label, which by the way, is not scientifically measured.
Jim Bradshaw on numerous occasions distained all the Track Bias talk. His “Match Up” would detect any overt bias if one existed on that day. If during the first few races you see results that don’t match your handicapping Early vs Late and it is consistent then you may have reason to alter your selections to favor the perceived bias. But then they can harrow the track or roll it between races and you and you now have burned more tickets. The best advice is to stop wagering and watch or go play another track that is playing faithfully.

[Segwin]

Thank you Mark for the detailed post. As I navigate these waters I run into topics that need further investigation. An understanding of the statement such as "it became undeniably evident that the Start in Methodology is extremely sensitive to track biases" helps me to understand the big picture.

Anytime I've taken on a project I spend an enormous amount of time exploring all avenues. It's what makes life interesting.