Injured Horse?

[Segwin]

Would it be safe to say that this horse is injured (or something negative)?

[dirty moose]

Been claimed 3 times and been bounced around. Could be anything.
Four different track and a Parx makes a 5th different. Horse could be tired. Could be hurt.

[Segwin]

Hi DM,

It is safe to say that there is something wrong correct? His form has really taken a nose dive.

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

Everything depends on the match up of the true contenders but I think this horse is off form. Its now running for 1/2 it claiming price.

It has no form after 2 plus recent pace lines,
The class of today's race is a $5000 claimer.
Its last pace line was a $5000 claimer at MTH.
Based on what we know about the RC from Trackmaster
This looks like a harder race 92 to 83

This is just a rough guide I don't depend too much on these numbers
but they are a tool.

In my 2013 Parx database for $5000 claimers - They run very few $5000 claimers.
So I combined the open and NW1 -6MX conditions. T

To further add this also includes both Male and Female horses for a total of only 30 races.

I expect about a 23.3 46.8 and 112.6 pace of race.
I see nothing in its last few races to support an improvement
tomorrow. So I would not consider this horse a win contender

To me this horse needs something like a rest or vet
We shall see. The fact that J.Bisono is on it says they are desperate
as JB is a top rider at Parx (again just a tool).

[DontSayDont]

Line 10, the horse ran in a AL27 N3-L. Since that race it has won 2 times. How did it qualify for a C10 N3-L on 22 Sept. at Mth (Line 2)? It shows 4 wins lifetime.

[Bill V.]

Hi

When Toni ran in the Allowance race at CT on March 30 race 7 it had 2 wins

It won its third life time race on June 15th at Delaware
It was a Open $7.500 Claimer ( line 7 )

This race is the key because ...

When It won at Mth on August 9 ( line 4 ) it was its 4th win

Here are the conditions for the Sept 22 CL 10 N3-L race ( line 2 )

The conditions say "Races for under $8000 NOT considered in allowances"




So the win at Delaware was for $7500 and therefore it lets Toni run
in the race with 3 life time wins. Its possible that Toni won its maiden or second win for less then $8000.

Bill

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[Segwin]

Thanks Bill et al. for the thoughts.

I wouldn't bet this horse as it looks like it could use a vacation.

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

I got off track to one of your questions.

Is there a place to find out if a horse is injured ?

I don't know if anybody listed this for every horse

So unless you just follow 1 track and check the result charts everyday
and record all the information you will need to base your opinion on what you see in the PP's

Lets look at Toni again It races just about every 2-3 weeks you can see
this by the days since last race numbers RDSS uses
I see 16, 29, 52, 73 91. This means Toni has run 5 times in 91 days
or ones every 18 days. This hardly seems like the work load of a hurt horse

Here is a horse called Perfect Jewel

This horse has 2 breaks in its form cycle
Here is what I see
In line 6 Perfect Jewel pulled up It was a 2 year old
it then went out for 258 days ( bucked shins)?

It came back in line 5 and ran a zero race in a dirt sprint.
Then they put it in a route but also have decided that they don't mind losing the horse.
Because now its in a maiden claimer. It wins the race but nobody claims it.
The MC 32000 win says Perfect Jewel will probably be about a $16000 claiming horse.

So they try again on the turf in line 3 but again it runs a zero race.
Now they rest her again for 5 weeks
between lines 2 and 3.
In her return race they try a optional claimer for $22000.
Again it runs a 0 race. Then they drop her again to $16000.
She wins, Trainer W. Thompson gets the win but the horse is claimed by K. Demasi
Then the horse goes back in the barn for 7 weeks.
It tries to come back on Saturday but is scratched by the vet.
To me Perfect Jewel is a $16000 claimer who shows signs of
a horse with injury problems

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Lets look at Toni again It races just about every 2-3 weeks you can see
this by the days since last race numbers RDSS uses
I see 16, 29, 52, 73 91. This means Toni has run 5 times in 91 days
or ones every 18 days. This hardly seems like the work load of a hurt horse

That makes sense Bill, thanks.

[DontSayDont]

Hi Bill,

Thanks for posting the complete eligibility rules for that race. I see where 3 yr olds are eligible no matter the amount of wins. Only 4 yr olds and up, are eligible under the N3-L condition. The "or" after For Fillies Three Years Old, starts the second part of the eligibility rules.

Ray