Reconstructing the Rebel

[Tim Y]

Whenever there is a horse overlooked in the wagering, I try to go back and find
a reason. Win Willy, although he had NONE of the velocity rankings to put him
close to the big favorite, had competed in all his races, IN HAND, at a %medians
near those that win races at the Derby prep distances (around 67.2- 67.5).

As I have found often at Aqueduct and other courses, the energy distribution of
a horse is often more important than the absolute velocities especially in a
horse that is maturing versus a 4 or 5 year old. Might have been something to
look at down the line.

[Ted Craven]

Could be.

In addition to that, someone knew something and had a remarkable opinion about Win Willie at 2 minutes to post, as the RDSS tote analysis had it ranked (a distant) second to Old Fashioned.

I know all about how it is impossible to determine anything useful from toteboard patterns, just to forstall the anticipated education (and I had early on eliminated that horse on Total Energy, though I certainly agree with the utility of Energy Distribution observations), but I've seen too many wins at long odds (and bet a few) supported by tote action when Energy analysis fails (FTS, Foreigners, Layoffs supported by works only, etc) to write off that supplementary analysis.

Someone or group thought the horse could stretch out just fine yet reserve his energy sufficiently for Fr3, or perhaps was looking over your shoulder, Tim, and capitalized on that.

Further, Old Fashioned was worn out by the predictable early challenge of Silver City, thus setting up for an Other-Than-Early. Who were the Sustained/Lates, from an energy disbursement (let alone a positional) perspective?

Perhaps a (deconstructed) triumph of the marriage of positional and energy disbursement analyis, along with a peek at the toteboard insider knowledge (which doesn't exist ).

Ted

[Tim Y]

Improving and never tapped resources right there. Reminds me of many of the late season Remsen winners except for the velocity

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Improving and never tapped resources right there.

Indeed!

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

...In addition to that, someone knew something and had a remarkable opinion about Win Willie at 2 minutes to post...
Ted

Win Willie had the third fastest last race of the nine horse field. In addition he broke through his two year top in his first race a three year old, always a good sign.

Considering the above, his win payoff of $115.60 was astounding!

[RichieP]

The winner was a Ginsu

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by richiep

the winner was a ginsu

[Bill V.]

Rich and I knew a guy at the Meadowlands we called fast Eddie
he always bet horses with two names and both parts of the horses
name started with the same letter like Win Willy W-W

He called these two named horses Ginzus

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Win Willie had the third fastest last race of the nine horse field.

David,

3rd fastest last race by what measure? (although the TrackMaster SR does say 4th, almost 3rd...)

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

David,

3rd fastest last race by what measure? (although the TrackMaster SR does say 4th, almost 3rd...)

Ted, by Thoro-Graph. That was his T-Graph sheet (one form of it) I posted.

When a young horse's third or fourth outing results in a better performance than their initial outgoing it indicates strong development.

Once a 3YO breaks their 2YO top you can expect future forward movement. This is the most explosive pattern in thoroughbred racing. Ideally, you want to wait three to four weeks from their top race before betting them, preferably with a bad race in between. Many times you'll wait six to eight weeks to bet. Sometimes with a 3YO there is no wait.

This is part of what makes handicapping this time of year so exciting. You can expect horses to run like they never have before in their life. Ergo, some nice prices.

If a colt or filly does not run a new top in their first two or three races as a 3YO it's a negative sign; they aren't developing as they should. Granted there are exceptions, but that's the rule of thumb.

None of this is my creation. It's old Sheet logic I learned in the 70's and still holds true today. And you can measure it in a variety of ways. For example, Total Energy would be one way.

I'm sure you know most or all of this, but I wrote the above for those unfamiliar with these concepts.