Using Median Energy - Pace and Cap

Peteman · 07-09-2015, 02:03 PM

Median Energy ranking,I do not have an early late graph on my old program that I cap with.. and never been any good with the ideas honestly,is the horse within a proper range say 68.50 an average of say the last 10 6f
races and finding a horse that is within that range for today race,
just never worked for me, or marking down if the horse that
Was very early or real late from the graph.This is a variation of Tim Y. Ideas.
Right now at TDN the top 3 in late energy,are the biggest predictors of place. Not Velocity at 5.5 and 6 fur. So toying with the idea here to model it. For a short term pattern recognize tool.
Say your winner from your program was 69.01.second
In ME% on the high end you mark him in as E-2,and your place was 67.42,lowest in ME% for your race you would put him in your spreadsheet as a L-1.We have all seen
Prices at the extreme ends of the graph before.So you would turn it into a predicting number like 58% 1-3 place
just curious as to how other people track this.

Pete

Lt1 · 07-09-2015, 02:44 PM

I also play TDN. On my model I record ep,lp,cpr ,vdc, and te rankings of the winner and place horses at each distance. I record the % med figure for both ie winner 68.01, pl69.5 and establish the parameters for both. Since I show 5.5f favoring lp horses I look at the top 3 lp horses and check to see if they are within the med % parameters. At 6f the winners are coming from ep horses so I look at the top 3 ep horses. Of course final odds dictate a bet or not.
Tim

Bill V. · 07-09-2015, 03:24 PM

I find the numbers are OK as a tool but I just look for who is over 69.5 and under 67.5,
As a guide to we who may be too early or too late.
But I have the early late graph for a clearer picture ( at least for me )

Peteman · 07-09-2015, 05:25 PM

Bill and Tim thanks for the input,First weeks playing Tdn,seems like bigger purses
and fields there this year,the 5.5 fur seems a little better than the 6 model.

Mark · 07-10-2015, 05:51 PM

Median Energy is track specific and can be distance specific at that track depending on Run-Up distances. Since by definition Median Energy = EP/Total Energy the pace of the paceline used will have a tremendous impact on the rating. If you want to use it make sure that your projected pace for the race is similar for all horses. Minor league racing caters to older horses that may at one time been good horses but wear and tear on them impacts the horses capabilities substantially. Often in these cheaper races the Early horses completely fall apart after the 2nd call and decelerate rapidly. This most likely accounts for a top3 Late Pace category winning most of the races. That is not normal at better tracks. Usually better Early horses will go wire to wire if they are not forced to run too fast early. Possibly a better factor to model is Deceleration on the Velocity-POH screen.

07-09-2015, 02:03 PM	#1
Peteman Grade 2 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 97	Using Median Energy Median Energy ranking,I do not have an early late graph on my old program that I cap with.. and never been any good with the ideas honestly,is the horse within a proper range say 68.50 an average of say the last 10 6f races and finding a horse that is within that range for today race, just never worked for me, or marking down if the horse that Was very early or real late from the graph.This is a variation of Tim Y. Ideas. Right now at TDN the top 3 in late energy,are the biggest predictors of place. Not Velocity at 5.5 and 6 fur. So toying with the idea here to model it. For a short term pattern recognize tool. Say your winner from your program was 69.01.second In ME% on the high end you mark him in as E-2,and your place was 67.42,lowest in ME% for your race you would put him in your spreadsheet as a L-1.We have all seen Prices at the extreme ends of the graph before.So you would turn it into a predicting number like 58% 1-3 place just curious as to how other people track this. Pete

07-09-2015, 03:24 PM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	wagercap I find the numbers are OK as a tool but I just look for who is over 69.5 and under 67.5, As a guide to we who may be too early or too late. But I have the early late graph for a clearer picture ( at least for me )

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07-09-2015, 02:44 PM	#2
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,477	I also play TDN. On my model I record ep,lp,cpr ,vdc, and te rankings of the winner and place horses at each distance. I record the % med figure for both ie winner 68.01, pl69.5 and establish the parameters for both. Since I show 5.5f favoring lp horses I look at the top 3 lp horses and check to see if they are within the med % parameters. At 6f the winners are coming from ep horses so I look at the top 3 ep horses. Of course final odds dictate a bet or not. Tim

07-09-2015, 05:25 PM	#4
Peteman Grade 2 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 97	Bill and Tim thanks for the input,First weeks playing Tdn,seems like bigger purses and fields there this year,the 5.5 fur seems a little better than the 6 model.

07-10-2015, 05:51 PM	#5
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Median Energy is track specific and can be distance specific at that track depending on Run-Up distances. Since by definition Median Energy = EP/Total Energy the pace of the paceline used will have a tremendous impact on the rating. If you want to use it make sure that your projected pace for the race is similar for all horses. Minor league racing caters to older horses that may at one time been good horses but wear and tear on them impacts the horses capabilities substantially. Often in these cheaper races the Early horses completely fall apart after the 2nd call and decelerate rapidly. This most likely accounts for a top3 Late Pace category winning most of the races. That is not normal at better tracks. Usually better Early horses will go wire to wire if they are not forced to run too fast early. Possibly a better factor to model is Deceleration on the Velocity-POH screen.