Poll - Pace and Cap

Procefus · 10-11-2015, 11:08 AM

Sartin Methodology 2 Horse Win Betting and Ave Mutual per 20 Race Cycle

I would like to know how many of our Sartin Methodology faithful, feel/Know they are achieving a 55% hit rate on a two horse Win wager with average Win Mutual of $8.00 ? per 20 Race Cycle (11/20 = 55%)

Your input and feed back is greatly appreciated

Doug

Bill V. · 10-11-2015, 05:16 PM

I might sound like the beer advertisement but
I don't always keep 20 race cycles but when I do I usually get 11
Wins and an average of $9+

I wager to find the winner but I make most of my profits finding
good value VDC contenders
That pay well even if the place or show .
I also make good profit using these VDC horses
in doubles and pick 3-4 bets.
I generally only bet P3 or P4 with a partner

Lt1 · 10-11-2015, 11:08 PM

I don't keep 20 races cycles anymore but so far this year I've bet 1282 races and won 792 with an avg win price of $9.70. I also play dds and have won 492 of 817 this yr.
Tim

Procefus · 10-12-2015, 11:02 AM

Bill & Tim Thank you for sharing.

I guess I should share.

SAR Meet '15
Non-Mdn races with fields 5+
Total of 257 races
145 Wins for hit rate of 56.4% in Top 2 VDC
Ave. Mutual $7.92

Although the Meet seemed to be productive it appears it was very challenging.

(No Horizontals or Verticals, although the data reveal they appear quite lucrative. What do you feel is an acceptable Win rate and Price in those pools?)

Any Tie Breaking Tips?

All the Best,
Doug

P.S. Currently working BEL & KEE meets

rmath · 10-12-2015, 12:33 PM

Procefus,
My win % is 63 with an average mutual of 9.00+
I play mostly DD with a hit rate of 55%+
I also play Pic 3s when I find three playable races in a row.
My pic 3 hit rate is 40%+.
Rmath

Brian Chamberlain · 10-12-2015, 01:21 PM

Thanks for sharing guys. I am having fun getting re-introduced to Sartin Methodology after a decade hiatus and sure appreciate Ted and all the leaders of this forum.

Question: On these win rates, are y'all betting two horses to win? In other works when you say you play 1200 races, is that one unit per race, two units per race, or it changes a lot, etc. Just trying to get a handle on your actual ROI, me being a financial guy.

Take care,
Brian Chamberlain
Grapevine, Texas

Bill V. · 10-12-2015, 01:54 PM

I have at least two horses covered in my bets
Mostly it's 2 win bets. Sometimes it's 1 horse to win and another to win/place. Sometimes I might have a 2nd horse for WPS Sometimes it's 2 horses in the double or P3 -P4
I once in a while will just have 1 horse WPS

Brian Chamberlain · 10-12-2015, 03:40 PM

Thanks Bill, thats close to how I do it, depending on the odds.
Brian

Procefus · 10-13-2015, 11:37 AM

To follow up:

BEL thru 10/12 & KEE thru 10/11

BEL
73/141 = 51.7% Hit Rate
Ave. Mutual = $6.95
ROI = .90 (-10%)

KEE
31/48 = 64.5% Hit Rate
Ave. Mutual = $8.44
ROI = 1.36

(SAR ROI was 1.118 for the Meet)

Conservative, small $200 Bank Roll(s), $2 Win on top 2 C's
Having trouble with Hides so haven't been using them.
Also having trouble breaking ties when comes to my final two

(out of work and resources are limited)

All feedback and ideas are greatly appreciated

Thank you ALL !

atkinsrr · 11-01-2015, 07:49 PM

Hello to all...haven't been here in a while....been very busy with racing and working....thought I'd put in my 2 cents worth on this discussion....I still keep 20 race cycles but do it a little differently than most....since I only involve myself in the win pool my 20 race cycle includes win bets and pic 3's and pic 4's....with the pic 3's and 4's I always have more than 2 horses on my ticket for each race and there are times when I bet 3 horses to win on my win wagers ...sometimes 2 and sometimes only one...depending on the situation...including the Breeders Cup I have handicapped 361 races for the year won 139 lost 112 passed 110 win % 55.3% with ave mutual $10.49....my biggest earnings are from pick 4's on big Stakes days when the pools are large...i.e. late pic 4 in this years Breeders Cup had 3.3 million in the pool and when I hit A.P. in the classic the 50 cent p4 paid $765.00....also had Tonalist paying $1900 Honor Code paying $1600 and Effinex paying $14,000...had to use all the favs on my tickets but beat 3 of them...needed to beat AP for a monster payoff....I strongly rec using DOCS 20 race cycle report with the backside being used for other records and notes that you may want to keep...really helps me....best wishes to all....Randy A.

10-11-2015, 11:08 AM	#1
Procefus Grade 3 Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Gun Barrel City, Texas Posts: 71	Poll Sartin Methodology 2 Horse Win Betting and Ave Mutual per 20 Race Cycle I would like to know how many of our Sartin Methodology faithful, feel/Know they are achieving a 55% hit rate on a two horse Win wager with average Win Mutual of $8.00 ? per 20 Race Cycle (11/20 = 55%) Your input and feed back is greatly appreciated Doug

10-12-2015, 12:33 PM	#5
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	Win% Procefus, My win % is 63 with an average mutual of 9.00+ I play mostly DD with a hit rate of 55%+ I also play Pic 3s when I find three playable races in a row. My pic 3 hit rate is 40%+. Rmath

10-12-2015, 01:21 PM	#6
Brian Chamberlain RDSS Student Join Date: May 2014 Location: Grapevine, Texas Posts: 51	Win Rates Thanks for sharing guys. I am having fun getting re-introduced to Sartin Methodology after a decade hiatus and sure appreciate Ted and all the leaders of this forum. Question: On these win rates, are y'all betting two horses to win? In other works when you say you play 1200 races, is that one unit per race, two units per race, or it changes a lot, etc. Just trying to get a handle on your actual ROI, me being a financial guy. Take care, Brian Chamberlain Grapevine, Texas

10-12-2015, 01:54 PM	#7
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	2 horses I have at least two horses covered in my bets Mostly it's 2 win bets. Sometimes it's 1 horse to win and another to win/place. Sometimes I might have a 2nd horse for WPS Sometimes it's 2 horses in the double or P3 -P4 I once in a while will just have 1 horse WPS Last edited by Bill V.; 10-12-2015 at 01:59 PM.

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
RDSS Export to Synergism Poll	Ted Craven	Synergism	32	10-19-2012 04:12 PM
Official Contest Rules (please respond in the Poll to enter the Contest)	Ted Craven	Contest Admin Stuff	1	05-31-2012 12:48 PM
Poll Question	shoeless	General Discussion	12	10-05-2009 02:33 AM
Take out, rebate poll on PA	Charlie D	General Discussion	0	06-07-2009 03:06 PM
Poll Question	shoeless	General Discussion	28	09-01-2008 09:36 PM

10-11-2015, 05:16 PM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	I might sound like the beer advertisement but I don't always keep 20 race cycles but when I do I usually get 11 Wins and an average of $9+ I wager to find the winner but I make most of my profits finding good value VDC contenders That pay well even if the place or show . I also make good profit using these VDC horses in doubles and pick 3-4 bets. I generally only bet P3 or P4 with a partner

10-11-2015, 11:08 PM	#3
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,376	I don't keep 20 races cycles anymore but so far this year I've bet 1282 races and won 792 with an avg win price of $9.70. I also play dds and have won 492 of 817 this yr. Tim

10-12-2015, 11:02 AM	#4
Procefus Grade 3 Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Gun Barrel City, Texas Posts: 71	Bill & Tim Thank you for sharing. I guess I should share. SAR Meet '15 Non-Mdn races with fields 5+ Total of 257 races 145 Wins for hit rate of 56.4% in Top 2 VDC Ave. Mutual $7.92 Although the Meet seemed to be productive it appears it was very challenging. (No Horizontals or Verticals, although the data reveal they appear quite lucrative. What do you feel is an acceptable Win rate and Price in those pools?) Any Tie Breaking Tips? All the Best, Doug P.S. Currently working BEL & KEE meets

10-12-2015, 03:40 PM	#8
Brian Chamberlain RDSS Student Join Date: May 2014 Location: Grapevine, Texas Posts: 51	Thanks Bill, thats close to how I do it, depending on the odds. Brian

10-13-2015, 11:37 AM	#9
Procefus Grade 3 Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Gun Barrel City, Texas Posts: 71	To follow up: BEL thru 10/12 & KEE thru 10/11 BEL 73/141 = 51.7% Hit Rate Ave. Mutual = $6.95 ROI = .90 (-10%) KEE 31/48 = 64.5% Hit Rate Ave. Mutual = $8.44 ROI = 1.36 (SAR ROI was 1.118 for the Meet) Conservative, small $200 Bank Roll(s), $2 Win on top 2 C's Having trouble with Hides so haven't been using them. Also having trouble breaking ties when comes to my final two (out of work and resources are limited) All feedback and ideas are greatly appreciated Thank you ALL !

11-01-2015, 07:49 PM	#10
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	Hello to all...haven't been here in a while....been very busy with racing and working....thought I'd put in my 2 cents worth on this discussion....I still keep 20 race cycles but do it a little differently than most....since I only involve myself in the win pool my 20 race cycle includes win bets and pic 3's and pic 4's....with the pic 3's and 4's I always have more than 2 horses on my ticket for each race and there are times when I bet 3 horses to win on my win wagers ...sometimes 2 and sometimes only one...depending on the situation...including the Breeders Cup I have handicapped 361 races for the year won 139 lost 112 passed 110 win % 55.3% with ave mutual $10.49....my biggest earnings are from pick 4's on big Stakes days when the pools are large...i.e. late pic 4 in this years Breeders Cup had 3.3 million in the pool and when I hit A.P. in the classic the 50 cent p4 paid $765.00....also had Tonalist paying $1900 Honor Code paying $1600 and Effinex paying $14,000...had to use all the favs on my tickets but beat 3 of them...needed to beat AP for a monster payoff....I strongly rec using DOCS 20 race cycle report with the backside being used for other records and notes that you may want to keep...really helps me....best wishes to all....Randy A.