Plus within Zero 1st off layoff - Pace and Cap

Jeebs · 01-23-2017, 12:37 PM

Hello!

In today's (1/23) 2nd at Mahoning Valley, the #2 Tiz Erins Night ran 9 days ago going a mile at Turfway, running up close for 2 calls (1st by head 1/4m, 2nd by 1 1/2 at 1/2m) before fading precipitously through the field to finish dead last (6th by 18 3/4). To me, a textbook "plus within zero" effort.

Normally, I would consider examining the next line for something more comparable, but that "next line" was 238 days ago, going 5 1/2F at Mountaineer, which was a solid win while sitting 5th early on, nearly 5 lengths off a fast early pace. Even though this line is "stale", is it still OK to consider this line for analysis given how the 1st off the layoff was (+) and a non-comparable distance? Or is this an instance where I consider "No Line" and move on to the next horse?

raceman5 · 01-23-2017, 02:03 PM

Yea I would use it. Plus this horse enjoys an off track and the track today is sloppy.

Bob

dlivery · 01-24-2017, 12:10 PM

Jeebs

Shows good early pace and drops back is a good sign of fittness and ready to put a good effort.

01-23-2017, 12:37 PM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Plus within Zero 1st off layoff Hello! In today's (1/23) 2nd at Mahoning Valley, the #2 Tiz Erins Night ran 9 days ago going a mile at Turfway, running up close for 2 calls (1st by head 1/4m, 2nd by 1 1/2 at 1/2m) before fading precipitously through the field to finish dead last (6th by 18 3/4). To me, a textbook "plus within zero" effort. Normally, I would consider examining the next line for something more comparable, but that "next line" was 238 days ago, going 5 1/2F at Mountaineer, which was a solid win while sitting 5th early on, nearly 5 lengths off a fast early pace. Even though this line is "stale", is it still OK to consider this line for analysis given how the 1st off the layoff was (+) and a non-comparable distance? Or is this an instance where I consider "No Line" and move on to the next horse?

01-24-2017, 12:10 PM	#3
dlivery Grade 1 Join Date: May 2009 Location: Thornhill ON Posts: 438	Last line nice Jeebs Shows good early pace and drops back is a good sign of fittness and ready to put a good effort.

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01-23-2017, 02:03 PM	#2
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,363	Heck Yea I would use it. Plus this horse enjoys an off track and the track today is sloppy. Bob