Will Rogers Downs 1st - 4/24/17

[Jeebs]

Race Conditions:


Pacelines/Run Style:
#1 - Line 1/Sustained. Ran a visually strong race last out and ran a strong 159.1 TE against a 159.5 TE PoR. Top perceptor total. The horse appears to be capable of running to that line or better 3rd start off the long layoff.
#2 - Line 1/Sustained Presser. Ran to a top 160.0 TE against a 160.9 PoR last out and a top perceptor total. Shows predominant early sticks in its form. Can this 8YO move forward off that top effort?
#3 - Line 2/Sustained. Goes 3rd off the layoff today. Disappointed at short odds last out in this group and may not be sharp. Line 2 was competitive against a 160.1 TE pace and may simply be an "in and outer" type, with today being a "good" race in this cycle.
#4 - Line 1/Sustained Presser. M/L favorite has changed energy styles since moving to the Broberg barn. Wheels back in 6 days off a top TE pace and perceptor total after being out of competition for 5 weeks. Can this one squeeze another big race? Or will it bounce? Not a "win" type and often disappoints at short odds. As the old saying goes, "Caveat Emptor."
#5 - Line 4/Presser. Several visually good races in its recent form cycles. For this one to contend, it will have to run back to that 4th line from HOU (160.8 TE off a 162.2 PoR).
#6 - Line 2/Early. Line 1 was not usable because of what appears to be a timer malfunction, so we are forced to look elsewhere. Against PoR's in the 160's this one easily flames out. A non-contender cheap speed, but without the requisite information required to judge Line 1, Line 2 is the best gauge of its ability to handle today's matchup.
#7 - Line 1/Sustained. Its top effort against a 160.3 PoR was on a muddy track, yet the horse is 0/9 on off-tracks. Using a fast track line, it's 2nd best perceptor and 2nd best TE (158.9 vs a 159.5) was the best I could do.

Here was my Energy sort:


Having culled the non-contenders from the mix based on the sort, let's see how the contenders match up on Velocity PoH and TPR:


#2 has the top F1 (remember in routes, it is measured from start to the 1/2 mile, so it is essentially a compounded fraction). #5 is a strong TT runner, nearly 1.2 FPS better than #2. The favored #4 is the clear F3 runner, 2.0 FPS better than #3 and #5.

On TPR, #4 has a 3 point overall edge over #2. However, look at its E/L stick and look at its ESP style and %Med. This is a "Very Late" runner, which explains its frequent short odds disappointments. #2 is a lone "counter-energy" runner based on the E/L graph, even though I felt that it is a visual Sustained Presser. 2-3-5 are within 2 points of one another. Unless #4 is simply much the best in this matchup, the race appears contentious, perhaps too contentious to accept the likely odds on #4.

Bottom Line:


The split between Tiers 1 and 2 (#4 and #3) and Tiers 3 and 4 (#5 and #2) are tight, too tight IMO to bet #4 at the likely short price. This one stands out on 5 of the 7 primary factors, but is a one-trick pony, doing its running in the 3rd fraction, with weak Early and TT fractions. A poor proposition. Once enough money hits the pools, we should have a good grasp on where the 2-3-5 stand as far as creating a wagering situation.

Good luck and skill to those choosing to get involved here.

[Mitch44]

I've been at the site reading Follow Ups for the past few hours and missed your post. It would be unfair to say what I had using your data and trusting your pace lines. Anyway a nice EX. payoff considering the odds. I worked it thinking it was going off tonight and went to Bris and learned it had already went off.
Mitch44

[Bill V.]

Mitch, we think alike
For some reason I thought WRD was a night track ,

Jeebs tough race with the 6 missing line 1, I could not establish s fulcrum
The 4 is an older horse so I would not be worried about s bounce
That 95 lpr seems a little wacky ,

[Jeebs]

Will Rogers is strictly a day track. They run from March through May. Then Fair Meadows Tulsa in June and July, then Remington from August through December. FMT is a pain because the races appear to be hand timed and they don't keep fractions. This is apparent once racing shifts to Remington, because most recent lines are useless for Sartin handicapping. You either need to use lines from other tracks to estimate their recent form - and pray - or wait a couple of months for the Remington horse population to establish a series of lines. I actually wrote a scathing letter to Fair Meadows Tulsa in regards to the lack of fractional times and the detrimental effect it has on trying to handicap. Needless to say, crickets are chirping....

[Mitch44]

One thing this race illustrates is that Sartin & RDSS works at all tracks large, small, cheap and classy. The factors in RDSS are just awesome! I play tracks all over the country.Small tracks are just as form full and pay some good prices also as do major tracks.

As handicappers you need to find and use factors that are not track, class, distance, and surface specific. Their in RDSS and far superior to what most use. Of course this only applies to those that use a consistent approach and procedure. While we can play tracks all over the country we can't win there without a consistent approach and procedures.

Mitch44