Preview of 2018 BC Classic-mile and 1/4 Dirt

[lone speed]

On the eve of Breeders Cup Pre-Entries:

These are the definite entries as determined by Breeder's Cup system:
Accelerate, Pavel, Diversify followed by those who garnered points: Bravazzo, McKinzie, Axelrod, and Lone Sailor.


The rest of the field which is limited to 14 entrants are to determined by the BC panel. ( One tough job...)

Possible entrants to be determined by BC panel:

West Coast, Catholic Boy, Mind Your Biscuits ( Might be pre-enter in 3 races ), Thunder Snow, Mendelssohn, Collected, Yoshida, Gunnevera, and Roaring Lion.

[lone speed]

Accelerate will be the morning line favorite- multiple winner at the mile and 1/4 distance.








PS: I forgot to list the "upset winner of the Jockey Gold cup" Discreet Lover as a possible BC Classic entrant.

[lone speed]

Here is the chart for the Jockey Gold Cup:

Look at those internal pace fractions ( even though race is run at Belmont race track )

[lone speed]

Before the field is set for the 2018 Breeder's Cup Classic and even though Diversify will not be in the race; I wanted to evaluate Diversify's losing race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Diversify"s smashing win in the Suburban. Both races were run at Belmont race track.

Imho, I would like to comment that both effort were the same, even though the Jockey Club Gold Cup was a losing effort. The "Big" difference was that Mendelssohn forced Diversify to run a faster 4 Furlong split time in the Jockey Club Gold Cup race.

Diversify's huge effort in the Suburban race where he won by 6 1/2 L


Diversify dueled with Mendelssohn and ran to the 4 Furlong markers 3 ticks faster than he had run in the Suburban.




The pace fractions up close:




Once again, according to Jim Bradshaw and Huey Mahl; since Diversify was forced to run 3 ticks faster at the first fraction at 4 furlongs; he should run 6 ticks slower at the end of the race.

Diversify's Suburban final winning time was 1:59 and 4 fifths.......

In the Jockey Club Gold Cup; Diversify crossed the finish line in 2:01 and 1 fifth.

6 ticks difference in final time between Diversify's winning race in the Suburban and Diversify's losing effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Diversify's two efforts were the same even though the final race outcome were different.

Pace Makes the Race.

[lone speed]

It's not easy typing and watching the World Series at the same time...

Diversify finished in 2:01 in the Jockey Gold Cup as Diversify was 5 lengths behind Discreet Lover's winning time of 1:59.99 or 2:00 flat.

Diversify's Suburban winning time was 1:59 and 4/5...

The difference between 2:01 and 1:59 and 4/5 is 6 fifths or 6 ticks.....

[sureshotlink]

Jim Bradshaw & Huey Mahl, them guys were kind of a big deal...

[Mitch44]

Yoshida is an unknown in this race and true ability won't be known until after the race. Same for Catholic Boy. Neither is a toss and this is one tough race. If either one is bet the risk reward must be there. These aren't the only horses that are UNKNOWN FACTORS in this race.


Sartin would recommend this race be passed. I'd say be cautious with your bank roll and definitely get risk reward for whoever you bet. A favorite at low odds in this race makes no sense and every horse can be beaten. Much speed in this one.


Mitch44

[CheckMark]

Hey everyone. If you are on Pace Advantage, can you be ever so kind to post in my thread “2018 official Breeders cup selections thread” and post some picks in there? I want it to be a popular thread since this is the best 2 days in racing! Thanks if you do post in there. I will post in there too of course!

[lone speed]

in evaluating a race, if there are too many unknown factors, it does behooves one to pass the race. Every entrant should have 3 North American pace lines.

IMO, this BC Classic race has two entrants that will be tough to evaluate= John Gosden's Roaring Lion and Thunder Snow who has only one North American pace line.

Roaring Lion is a multiple Group One winner from Europe and is trained by a former Southern California trainer, John Gosden. If one decides to play this race; one has to evaluate if Roaring Lion is another Giant Causeway or Sahkee who both transformed their turf form and ran very well on dirt on their first attempt but both lost to Tiznow who won the Classic in successive years.

I will always remember Gosden's statement/opinion where he said that the last furlong that is run in most major French race course and several in England are run uphill. As a rule of thumb, you add two furlongs to the distances that were run. Example 6 Furlongs in French turf courses equates to 8 Furlongs or one mile. One mile from France equates to running 10 Furlongs in US tracks; usually.

The favorite, Accelerate and both Catholic Boy and Yoshida are not my top contenders in this match-up.

Good skills

[lone speed]

Excerpt from Howard Sartin's "The Dynamics of Incremental Velocity and Energy Exertion"