SAR4 July4th Interesting Race

[kahunab]

When we first enter the race we observe on the Entries screen several important things. First, we have two foreign horses the 6 and the 8. The 6 has no American lines but it is #3 rated PL horse and #1 rated New Pace late horse, he is 3rd in the Morning Line, however he is a bit of a layoff horse with the worst Workout Rating of all the horses. The 8 horse has American lines and can be rated off of them. The 1 horse is a first time starter with OK work out ratings, 20 to 1 in the ML and no PL rating. (His PL number was 50). I made him a non-contender.

When we look at his, the 6's, Past performances, we note that he has raced at 97 and 96 racing class and done well. Today is a racing class of 94. He has good Class Rank to go along with a good PL (important in Maiden races) and a good morning line. We note all his positives and make him a Secondary contender just so we get a cleaner picture of the other horses. He is definitely in consideration for a companion horse.

We look at the Leverage/Pace screen and identify the top 5 RX3 horses as our primary contenders. We note 3 blue arrow horses, 9,8,2. The 9 is a Lay Off horse, 257 days, but is the #1 ranked horse in TE, BLBL, RMath Score, RX3, L/P, LPR, and TPR. A very strong looking horse. The 8 is #4 total energy, #3 BLBL, #2 RMath Score, #2 L/P, #2 LPR. The 2 is a Layoff horse, 153 days, #2 in TE, #2 BLBL, #5 RX3, #3 L/P and #3 LPR,EPR,TPR. They all have scores to recommend them. We note also that we have 21 early speed points hinting at a Late race. Our candidates for Key are the top 3 LPR horses.

We move to the New Pace screen and note that the 6, 8 and 9 are the top rated Late horses in a late race. The 5 looks to be the earliest horse but with 54% accumulation under great pressure from the 3 and the 7 and possibly the 2. The 8 is rated better than the 9 or the 2. The 6 must certainly be considered as a Companion horse.

The Segments screen confirms what NP told us. 8 and 9 are the best late. The 3, 5, and 7 will compete in F1 and SC. The 2 may add to the pressure. I chose to make the 8 my key horse because of the better New Pace rating and "recency" over the 9 and the 2. So I keyed the 8 with the 7,9,2,6. I dropped the 5 for the 6 because he was Early in a Late race and I did not think he could hold on.

[kahunab]

How did it actually run? Well the 7 a presser grabbed the lead, the Early never fought back and the 7 wired the field. The 8 and 9 pressed. The 9 ran in 2nd, ran out gas and the 8 passed him in the stretch. The 6 and 2 didn’t run.

[Lt1]

Dick great explanations on your thinking and approach used to make your selections. Congrats on your nice hit.
Tim

[kahunab]

Thanks Tim!
Sometimes it is helpful to me to rework a race and thinking it through again.

[Lt1]

That is what makes you a winner. By constantly reviewing your work or testing other ideas put forth by other folks you continually strive to improve your game. It is true in all professions. The ones that need the least improvement are the ones who put in the most work.
Tim

[kahunab]

Thank You Tim! I could say the same about you and your years of study!

May you handicap well, Obi!

Chewy

[Lt1]

Chewy an interesting name. Hopefully others will start to understand that to be successful one must do the work. There are no free lunches in life. There is enough info on site as well as folks willing to help those who truly want to win. All they need to do is to reach out. It took me 8 yrs , a lot of kicks in the butt, and a lot of help from a lot of folks with the patience of a saint to get me to reach the level I am at. Thank goodness for those folks[I can still hear the Hat saying[in a very stern voice, when I ask if I could come to Okla. to learn the matchup] " you don't need to come here the matchup is in the program what you need to do is get the true contenders and pick the proper paceline and its' about time you get your act together and get serious about doing the work needed"]. That and the Docs' one on one video[available in the library] was what did the trick.
OBT

[Lt1]

Dick it just now dawned on me about the name Chewy. Hans Solos' partner in crime[llol]. Good choice of a name.
OBI

[darmar]

Hey Chewy I love it that you have joined our cosplay group.
May the force be with you always
Luke

[kahunab]

Hrrggghh!