Another Interesting Race What do you do with this one?

[kahunab]

Gentlemen, here is a race that I think should engage some conversation. When you encounter a race like this, what do YOU do?

We are looking at DEL 5 on September 10th, a claiming 16K fillies, non-winners of 3 lifetime. 8.5 on the turf.

Let's take an initial look at our screens.









What are your initial thoughts? Where would you start? How do you evaluate this race?

Next Frame will have the contenders .

[kahunab]

So if we get down to the top 5 RX3, (remember we are talking about 90+% of the time we have the winner in the contender group.)







What can we learn from this race? I hope we get some good dialogue! Have at it!

[raceman5]

Easy race for me using the Match Up. The 6 and 7 were a tandem race. Now the 6 horse has also run his turf races against very slow pace races, you can see this by using the Bris race shapes. Now his June 18th race was a good turf line of 23.3 47.2 111.4. I simply used some Hat voodoo and substituted his last race running lines. Something software cannot do. I was very fortunate to spend a few 1 one-on-one sessions with the Hat at the bar (I bought). He showed me some awesome stuff. I miss him. I read the Hat compilation at least 4 times a year, and I always learn something I might have missed.

Bob

[dadams6357]

Dick
I am wondering if this is a trick question?
It looks like it is a turf race.
According to the flow chart one should use the top rx3 for dirt.
And morning line for Turf.
Unless I have misunderstood something.
Ah just got through celebrating my 74th birthday.
So that is my out, for not being responsible for anything I say or do.
If we go with your contender line.
6/8 have the best odds. Also 6b 8b so they have the same trainer. (which may mean something or not).
Of course looking at the segment screen it looks like 8 lost ground from 2nd to finish.
Looking at all the pretty colors it seems the 6 has the best colors for rmath/rx3/Ml/TPR.
So let me consult with the Wizard and get back to you.
Don

[kahunab]

Don,
No trick questions. Just a tricky race that has multiple areas of confusion. (At least for my old brain!) I just want to get us talking together because I believe we can learn from each other. (Must be the old teacher in me.) I really want to hear where the conversation goes.

Dick

[dadams6357]

Dick
I hear yah.
You must of been a good math teacher.
Because your a great teacher in the field of handicapping.
Believe me when it comes to math teachers, good ones are hard to find.
As usual hats off to you tim bill etc.
I have learned a lot.
Thanks
Don

[Lt1]

Ok here is my take on the race. From the entry screen I make any horse not in the top5 PL=BPP a non contender so out go 1,8,9. The next step is PL selection [see end of post for lines I used].
My next step is on the original screen I sort by speed rating. Now I employ a tactic given to us by MR. Bill[and posted by me on the site]. I go to the energy screen and note any horse that doesn't have color in all the factors shown. Here we see that the 2,8,9 have no color and I will down grade them for win. His next step is to go to the PMTR/TPR SCREEN and note any horse not within 10 points of the #1 score[164.7#4]. Only the 5 fails here. My next step is to go to the BL/BL screen and note any contender not in the top 4[ the #2 & 5 are #s 5 &6 also not their large bal #]. Next I go to the RX screen and do the same thing[the 3 & 7 are 5 &6]. Also note here is where I note the RMATH key horses[2,4,5] are the choices] Remember I have knocks against the 2&5. The segment screen confirms that the 4 will be my key. Also note on the segment screen the 1 is a Dick LSP & on the RX screen the 9 is an RMath LSP. So after do my other capping points the 4 &6 would be my win horses.
PL USED
1L3
2 L1
3 L1
4 L1
5 L1
6 L9
7 L6
8 L5
9 L6
Tim

[kahunab]

Several of you have shown how to get to the winner in this messy race so kudos to you guys!

One of the reasons I chose this race is because it has a lot of the markings of a Chaos race and I wanted to point that out as a sign to proceed with some care. Being able to identify an unpredictable race is a very important skill to develop.

Here is a screenshot of my look at the race before any demotions. Note that RX3 has 6 horses all rated within 2 points of each other essentially the same. Note that only two horses have a complete RMath score, 6 and 7. Note the BL/BL scores are widely different than the RMath scores and RX3 scores. Our two Leverage Pace horses don't have other good scores. Lots of holes. Is this telling us to pass or maybe not bet the farm if we choose to play.



Tim does a great job breaking down this race, so if you choose to play races like this listen to Tim.
I would call your attention to the same issues on Tim's screen after demotions. Look at the holes in the ratings and how many horses have very similar scores. 5 horses have RX3 scores between 6 and 9. Only one horse has a complete RMath score. Etc, etc.



Just another take on the race.

Dick

[Lt1]

Dick thanks for the kind words but since there were many questions with the contenders and the fact that the projected win prices were poor I most likely would have passed this race. However it did serve its' purpose( as a good training example) by showing folks how members come to their conclusions.
Tim

[stormbringer]

HELLO ! Who won the race??