Does Leverage Pace work day to day?

[kahunab]

Today I handicapped 28 races and theoretically cashed a trifecta ticket in 19 of the 28. I did not bet every race I handicapped. I have included my worksheet but first I want to give you a key to what is included. First above the line (2) are the Leverage Pace (Arrow) horses. The first one listed (1) is my key horse. Below the line (3) are the companion horses. The results (4) are listed top to bottom. If a number is circled that means it won, if it is boxed that means it placed, if it is triangled that means it is the show horse.

Here is my worksheet for the day. There are many of the races we should not bet because the probability of “winning the race and not making money is high.” So our quest becomes how do we identify winning betting opportunities?
The fields were of good size and many prices were ok. Not too many monster hits. I made some mistakes and maybe with your handicapping you could do better! So what do you think? What do you see that might be helpful?

[Lt1]

Nice work Dick.
Tim

[The Pook]

Dick…if you had boxed your selections in $1 triactors you would have bet $1680 and returned $1400 for a loss of 17%. If you had passed every race where your key was the off time favourite you would have bet $1020 and returned $1110 for a profit of 9%. I didn’t work it out but I think if you had ignored races where your key was one of the top two or three favourites you might have done even better.

Good handicapping overall.

Pook

[Jake]

I can't follow your wagering. The first horse is your key horse. So, on your write-up, doesn't it have to have either a circle or a box to indicate that your key horse either won or place? Otherwise, isn't your exacta key a loss here? What would your actual bet on the DEL#3 race look like written out? Thanks,
Dick.

[dadams6357]

Dick what was your ROI(return on investment)...
The one race has a T? Is that turf? If so you hit a 100 percent on turf...of course it was only one race.
I myself am not sure how to guess at what would be a profitable race in regards to betting a trifecta.
Can one look at the probable exacta payouts and expect that will predict what a trifecta is going to pay? I myself would say no...
Is that 17 wins out of 28? It would seem that if your ROI is high enough then that would dictate whether one is on the right path or not.
The only advice I could offer would be that of a student telling the teacher how to handicap.
Great job on handicapping that many races in a day...my approach is to handicap a race between the races. That gets my adrenalin a pumping knowing I have only so many minutes left before I bet.
Thanks for the post.
Don

[Jake]

Originally Posted by Jake

I can't follow your wagering. The first horse is your key horse. So, on your write-up, doesn't it have to have either a circle or a box to indicate that your key horse either won or place? Otherwise, isn't your exacta key a loss here? What would your actual bet on the DEL#3 race look like written out? Thanks,
Dick.

So, you are only playing trifecta's these days, no exacta keys? Dadams6357
question on determining wager value here is a good one. Are you using exacta probables
to determine where to go with your bet, or are all your wagering primarily trifectas these days with Leverage Pace?

Thanks for your post, a lot of effort on your part.

Jake

[Jake]

Originally Posted by Jake

So, you are only playing trifecta's these days, no exacta keys? Dadams6357
question on determining wager value here is a good one. Are you using exacta probables
to determine where to go with your bet, or are all your wagering primarily trifectas these days with Leverage Pace?

Thanks for your post, a lot of effort on your part.

Jake

Let me ask this in a different way, Kahunab? I understand your ABC slotting, but not your W-L numbers. Are you betting 3 different trifectas key bets every race?

I confused because your Leverage Pace Overview indicated this betting strategy:

"3. A Key Box Exacta is K boxed with 3 or 4 Companion horses in the forms of K with1,2,3,4 AND 1,2,3,4 with K."

"4. We will design our two Trifecta tickets that look this way. K with 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4 AND 1,2,3,4 with K with 1,2,3,4"

What am I missing here? Exacta key betting would have to be more profitable, I would think, if that the case of 3 key trifecta bets.

Thanks,

Jake

[The Pook]

Further to the above if you had passed every race where your key was in the top three morning line you would have made 4 bets. Betting the same $1680 would allow $7 triactor boxes or $420 each. You would have hit 3 of them for a return of $2861. A profit of $1181 or 70% ROI.

So with a no brainer approach of avoiding races where your key is in general agreement with the ML maker and thus the public, you would have a chance.

Executing that is another matter with all the work done to sit mostly idle.

Pook

[dadams6357]

Thanks for the feedback Pook.
Appreciate it.
Don

[kahunab]

Good Morning, Gentlemen,
I really appreciate all your responses and feedback. I believe this is how we help each other learn. I will try to compose a response that will try to answer all of the questions you have posed. It may take me a bit to put it all together, but I will be back with a more complete answer. Hopefully, today. It depends on what the Boss has in store for me.

Dick