Help Wanted

[shoeless]

I really need help on learning the best way to decide if a race will be run early or late.I realize it's a tough question and some of you may be thinking why should I tell him.But Im hoping I will get some replies to this.Im using Synergsm and when you setup the race it's either based on FW,Early or Sustained.The manual says use FW when it doubt but if you can decide early or late I find the readouts to be more predictive.Yesterday at Tampa in the 7th I ranked it FW and the horse came up 3rd.If I would have done it early he was 1st and he paid 23.00 to win.Any thoughts?Jeff

[partsnut]

Shoeless:

I really need help on learning the best way to decide if a race will be run early or late.

Jeff, as we have discussed on a few occasions, speed points and running style of each horse in a race should in most cases determine if a race will be run early or late.
You might wanted to research what Dr, William Quirin has written on this subject.
Also, Randy Giles has lots of material on this subject which can be found on the "Pace Appraiser" Blog.

[shoeless]

Parts,Thanks I think Quinn has also written stuff on that subject as well.Jeff

[Forego]

Originally Posted by shoeless

I really need help on learning the best way to decide if a race will be run early or late.I realize it's a tough question and some of you may be thinking why should I tell him.But Im hoping I will get some replies to this.Im using Synergsm and when you setup the race it's either based on FW,Early or Sustained.The manual says use FW when it doubt but if you can decide early or late I find the readouts to be more predictive.Yesterday at Tampa in the 7th I ranked it FW and the horse came up 3rd.If I would have done it early he was 1st and he paid 23.00 to win.Any thoughts?Jeff

if you play tampa regularly you can try sorting the sprints early shoeless. i keep a profile and it is definitely biased early.

routes are a bit more fairer with a slight early tilt. maybe fw there and then see if you get comon horse showing in top 2 or 3 when you sort early too.

before each race then maybe look at the past performances for any weird races like a lot of early speed where you might consider tempering your early sort

your records should help you greatly with that software in my opinion.

[chris]

So do it both ways, and then decide. The decision of how to sort may not be as important as whether to bet or not. Either way, 1st or 3rd, at 10-1 this looks like a good bet I often run two or three scenarios on a race I'm serious about and then let the odds be the final arbiter. This invites a more open look at the race, and acknowledges the complexities inherent in each handicapping decision. If it were otherwise, we would all have the winner ranked on top each and every time. When I find myself in moments of indecision, I"m comforted with the observation that if I'm confused, the crowd is probably overwhelmed, and the worst thing that can happened to me if I'm mistaken. is that I'm wrong about this "race." I can live with that.
It also lightens me up and puts a smile back on face.
Regards,
Chris

[Houndog]

Originally Posted by chris

So do it both ways, and then decide. The decision of how to sort may not be as important as whether to bet or not. Either way, 1st or 3rd, at 10-1 this looks like a good bet I often run two or three scenarios on a race I'm serious about and then let the odds be the final arbiter. This invites a more open look at the race, and acknowledges the complexities inherent in each handicapping decision. If it were otherwise, we would all have the winner ranked on top each and every time. When I find myself in moments of indecision, I"m comforted with the observation that if I'm confused, the crowd is probably overwhelmed, and the worst thing that can happened to me if I'm mistaken. is that I'm wrong about this "race." I can live with that.
It also lightens me up and puts a smile back on face.
Regards,
Chris

Chris, I like your logic behind this post. I especially agree with your comment that if I am confused about a race the crowd is overwhelmed. This is not an arrogant feeling on my part, it is my belief the majority of people do not use the tools that we do here.

[Houndog]

Originally Posted by shoeless

I really need help on learning the best way to decide if a race will be run early or late.I realize it's a tough question and some of you may be thinking why should I tell him.But Im hoping I will get some replies to this.Im using Synergsm and when you setup the race it's either based on FW,Early or Sustained.The manual says use FW when it doubt but if you can decide early or late I find the readouts to be more predictive.Yesterday at Tampa in the 7th I ranked it FW and the horse came up 3rd.If I would have done it early he was 1st and he paid 23.00 to win.Any thoughts?Jeff

Jeff, I thought since I am a Brisnet member I would take advantage of the Ultimate PP's Giveaways. They have a race summary at the end of the pp's for each race. Anyhow from 12/09 thru 01/14 out of 64 races at 6 furlongs 41% of the races went W/W. By Bris's designation which may not be the same as what we use 48% of winners had an early designation, 22% had an e/p designation, 23% presser, and 6% sustained.

The average B/L's at the first call was 1.5 lengths, and 1.1 at the second call. I think with this information one could make a case for using the Early sort, followed by the FW sort. With this information I would not use the Sustained sort. This of course could change in the future, but so far this is what has happened so far at 6 furlongs at Tampa Bay.

[Houndog]

With the stats for 6 furlong races at Tampa Downs, these should be used at guidelines. Since every horserace is unique the Match-Up procedure should take precedence. You may find that they are in agreement most of the time. If you can figure out the "gray areas" this to me is where the money is.

"Gray areas" to me are horses that are matched closely in ability, horses with a very good paceline that is not readily apparent to the betting public. In close calls I like to do as Chris suggested in his post. I let the odds be my guide.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by shoeless

I really need help on learning the best way to decide if a race will be run early or late.Jeff

Jeff
The Hat devotes an entire chapter to helping us determine this very thing. 24 pages starting on page 81 of his new book.

One IMPORTANT thing if I may quote the Hat from the bottom of page 81:

" I will take you through a few exercises to help you grasp the concept of Early or Other than Early. Try to follow the CONCEPT and DON'T make the MISTAKE of SECOND GUESSING or saying I would have used this line. This is my race and my example." - Jim Bradshaw from "The Matchup2 with the Five Step Approach

His concepts and ideas ARE transferrable to software use IMO IF one keeps an open mind and really LISTENS to what he is saying.

For myself when I would NOT understand something he was teaching me and would get "famished" he would tell me " Rich LISTEN or your tongue will make you DEAF".

Richie

[shoeless]

Thanks for the helpful suggestions.