Excessive Analysis - Pace and Cap

socantra · 06-11-2007, 08:31 PM

I just spent a half hour over on PA reading a thread analysing every second of the Belmont Stakes, including how wide each horse went, when each jockey asked the horse, the relative competence of the jockeys and endless other factors that may have affected the running of the Belmont last Saturday.

After a while, I just wanted to scream; " Hey guys; its just a horse race. One horse goes to the front and the others try to catch him." and "The jockeys are standing up on the back of 1000 pound animals running 35 mph, and have very little control anyway".

Its good to be back home. Thanks for the sanity of Jimmy Bradshaw, Richie, Bill, Ted and too many other people to mention on Pace and Cap. Its a very crazy world out there.

Dick

shoeless · 06-11-2007, 09:08 PM

Dick,I hate to sound like one of those PA guys but Rags was lucky to have Johnny V on her back.After that stumble from the gate a lot of jocks wouldnt have won that race.While it's true the horse runs the race that person who is on the horses back should get some of the credit.Jeff

socantra · 06-11-2007, 11:12 PM

Of course Rags to Riches was lucky to have John Velazquez in the saddle when she stumbled, just as Curlin was lucky to have Robby Albarado in the saddle when he stumbled at the start of the Preakness. These guys are all top notch athletes and deserve enormous amounts of credit.

Every jockey in the race was a Grade 1 professional. They all routinely make the difficult look easy and occasionally perform the impossible. They are the tops of their profession. That doesn't mean they control the running of the race.

I suspect that if Velazquez had complete control, he would have preferred that Rags to Riches not stumble.

Dick

shoeless · 06-12-2007, 05:33 AM

How about when a jockey gets out on the front end and is able to slow the fractions down so the horse is able to wire the field.Is the jockey controlling the race then?

admin · 06-12-2007, 06:31 AM

Hi Jeff
yes but how can we know that the jockey is going to
or can???

I think there might be a bit of a danger to
my handicapping if I had to wonder about that
before the race,

I agree with socantra
and do best with those words
a horse either sets the pace or is over taken by another horse

and I like another one from Jim Bradshaw
"Some horses are in the race just to get beat"
Have a great day
GS
Bill

Fast4522 · 06-12-2007, 06:47 AM

If the race was run again, the filly would win again, in this crop of 3 year olds there were no stars but the filly.

socantra · 06-12-2007, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

How about when a jockey gets out on the front end and is able to slow the fractions down so the horse is able to wire the field.Is the jockey controlling the race then?

Absolutely not. The jockey is not going to get out in front unless he has a fast front running horse and is not going to be able to set slow fractions unless there is no horse willing to pass him.

The horse runs the race and the pace depends mostly upon the matchup of the horses in the race. Obviously, some jockeys are much better than others, but even they can't make a slow horse go fast and very rarely have any success trying to change the running style of the horse.

Dick

socantra · 06-12-2007, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fast4522

If the race was run again, the filly would win again, in this crop of 3 year olds there were no stars but the filly.

Who knows. Any number of things can happen in a horse race and that particular race will never be run again.

It was a great race though and a very good performance by Rags to Riches.

Dick

shoeless · 06-12-2007, 05:04 PM

I have to disagee jockeys can slow the pace down so there will be some gas in the tank left at the end.There was a jock who rode the Philly,NJ and MD circuit named Rick Wilson.This guy was a master at controlling the race with early speed types matchup or not,it was like he had a clock in his head.Nobody is saying to worry about it but it does happen.

admin · 06-12-2007, 05:13 PM

Hello Jeff

I remember the name, Mom was always making exacta boxes
Bravo Wilson and Julie Krone
at Monmouth

Was RW a top jockey down in MD?

06-11-2007, 08:31 PM	#1
socantra Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Norman, OK Posts: 387	Excessive Analysis I just spent a half hour over on PA reading a thread analysing every second of the Belmont Stakes, including how wide each horse went, when each jockey asked the horse, the relative competence of the jockeys and endless other factors that may have affected the running of the Belmont last Saturday. After a while, I just wanted to scream; " Hey guys; its just a horse race. One horse goes to the front and the others try to catch him." and "The jockeys are standing up on the back of 1000 pound animals running 35 mph, and have very little control anyway". Its good to be back home. Thanks for the sanity of Jimmy Bradshaw, Richie, Bill, Ted and too many other people to mention on Pace and Cap. Its a very crazy world out there. Dick __________________ "Ils Sont Partis"

06-11-2007, 11:12 PM	#3
socantra Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Norman, OK Posts: 387	Of course Rags to Riches was lucky to have John Velazquez in the saddle when she stumbled, just as Curlin was lucky to have Robby Albarado in the saddle when he stumbled at the start of the Preakness. These guys are all top notch athletes and deserve enormous amounts of credit. Every jockey in the race was a Grade 1 professional. They all routinely make the difficult look easy and occasionally perform the impossible. They are the tops of their profession. That doesn't mean they control the running of the race. I suspect that if Velazquez had complete control, he would have preferred that Rags to Riches not stumble. Dick __________________ "Ils Sont Partis"

06-12-2007, 06:31 AM	#5
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	danger Hi Jeff yes but how can we know that the jockey is going to or can??? I think there might be a bit of a danger to my handicapping if I had to wonder about that before the race, I agree with socantra and do best with those words a horse either sets the pace or is over taken by another horse and I like another one from Jim Bradshaw "Some horses are in the race just to get beat" Have a great day GS Bill Last edited by admin; 06-12-2007 at 06:36 AM.

06-12-2007, 05:13 PM	#10
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Rick Wilson Hello Jeff I remember the name, Mom was always making exacta boxes Bravo Wilson and Julie Krone at Monmouth Was RW a top jockey down in MD?

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
tpr ratings analysis	shoeless	Pace Makes the Race / TPR Total Pace Ratings	8	12-27-2015 11:59 AM
New look paceline and analysis screens	RichieP	RDSS	10	11-20-2006 02:43 PM
Evd081206 Comparing Profile And Energy Analysis Races 1 - 5	partsnut	Selections	0	08-12-2006 05:00 PM
When detailed matchup analysis fails / thinking outside the box	RichieP	Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum	5	10-04-2005 06:41 PM

06-11-2007, 09:08 PM	#2
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	Dick,I hate to sound like one of those PA guys but Rags was lucky to have Johnny V on her back.After that stumble from the gate a lot of jocks wouldnt have won that race.While it's true the horse runs the race that person who is on the horses back should get some of the credit.Jeff

06-12-2007, 05:33 AM	#4
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	How about when a jockey gets out on the front end and is able to slow the fractions down so the horse is able to wire the field.Is the jockey controlling the race then?

06-12-2007, 06:47 AM	#6
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	If the race was run again, the filly would win again, in this crop of 3 year olds there were no stars but the filly.

06-12-2007, 05:04 PM	#9
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,646	I have to disagee jockeys can slow the pace down so there will be some gas in the tank left at the end.There was a jock who rode the Philly,NJ and MD circuit named Rick Wilson.This guy was a master at controlling the race with early speed types matchup or not,it was like he had a clock in his head.Nobody is saying to worry about it but it does happen.