Old Style -- TPR

[alydar_ David]

The last two days have been gravy trains for old style TPR applications. You can use any of a variety of programs to get the numbers. You can also do it by hand using a pencil, a piece of paper and a $5 calculator.


Going by the book, using:

1) L.A.S.T. paceline guidelines

2) Considering contenders within 5 points of the top TPR

3) Assigning them "early" or "late" designations

4) Betting best "early" and best "late"

*And for ties I use the "pig factor." *snort*

Let's take a look at a few of them from today.

[alydar_ David]

Saturday 11/10/2007
PHA 7th Track Condition: Fast

#1 was scratched

Here's everybody:

[alydar_ David]

Here are horses within 5 points of the top TPR:

[alydar_ David]

I should mention that TOT = TPR

As you handicap the race you can note the running styles. Or, you can let the computer do it for you:

[alydar_ David]

We consider all five of these horses to be contenders. We've also stipulated that we're going to call each of them early or late.

#8 S/P will be late with a 94
#3 EP will be early with a 92
#1a E will be early with a 95
#7 E will be early with a 90
#4 S will be late with a 94

The best early horse has a 95. The #1a is our early horse.

There are two horses tied for late. They each have a 94. That's #8 and #4.
I used the pig factor to separate them and picked #4. *snort*

[alydar_ David]

LRL 9th was on the turf.
The turf was firm.
Scratches were #2, #2x, #8 and #10

(For some reason the Syn upload from the hard drive isn't working for this race, maybe I had a blonde moment saving it)

We'll muddle on anyway.

Here were the top contenders using L.A.S.T. that were within 5 points of the best TPR. (I know this because I write them down on a piece of paper when I'm doing the races. This is a lesson learned the hard way...many times over.)

#4 101 89 190
#3 90 98 188
#5 96 92 188
#1 89 96 185
#7 88 97 185

All of them are "Sus" which we'll call late. Remember, they're either early or late for this procedure. We're only looking at EPR and FFR to make our picks.

#3 is the best late with 98.
#7 is the next best late with 97.

Those are our two bets:

[admin]

in your philly example
You are showing race 7 horses
the winner # 4 Wire Whip paid $6.60
Jeff and I both had it .

The winner of race 8 was #4 signoella we got a big HELLO
from Keith Jones on that one

Thanks for you presentation
I am using the EPR and LPR and TPR numbers
as a tool I find them very helpful

Thanks Bill

[Turbulator]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

We consider all five of these horses to be contenders. We've also stipulated that we're going to call each of them early or late.

#8 S/P will be late with a 94
#3 EP will be early with a 92
#1a E will be early with a 95
#7 E will be early with a 90
#4 S will be late with a 94

The best early horse has a 95. The #1a is our early horse.

There are two horses tied for late. They each have a 94. That's #8 and #4.
I used the pig factor to separate them and picked #4. *snort*

Two follow-up questions, and I think I've got this.

You don't use the best of last three comparable, but you use the last line exclusively unless it falls under one of your exceptions--is that right?

Looking at post #3, you take the best EPR for the early horses, and you take the best LPR rating for the late horses, and these are your two choices.

Doing this I get the 3 and the 4, not the 1a and the 4. Either it's a typo or I'm overlooking something. If it's a typo, I've got it, and thanks.