Race 8 Saratoga 8608

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted

I used line 1 for both the 1 Horse and 5 Horse
The 5 rates better on BLBL

Nice call on the 1
any explanation why you used the 1 over the 5?

Thanks Good work on hitting the exacta

Bill

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Ted

I used line 1 for both the 1 Horse and 5 Horse
The 5 rates better on BLBL

Nice call on the 1
any explanation why you used the 1 over the 5?

Bill,

As I mentioned in my email, I did that race afterwards and didn't bet it.

2 reasons for noticing the #1:

for the #4 (the lone visual E) I used line 4 (best Perceptor Total, also best Tpp, Hidden). This made the #1 the very best at the 1st 2 calls on Segments CBL, also most opposite (least Late) on the E/L - and I always try to find a reason not to eliminate these types for in-the-money, even if they have lower Total Energies.

When I eliminated to 5 horses, thus, I eliminated the #4 and chose to eliminate the #5 because all its races after coming to North America were severely underwhelming.

I then had this:




#1 Belle looked most 'opposite' to likely Winners. I agree it depends on what line is chosen for the #4. If you use the last line for the #4, it becomes the best at the 1st 2 calls Segments screen, then the #1 doesn't look as outstanding or opposite.

I think it's a question of rigour: if I use the same decision making rule set each time, I get some and miss some others. When trying to select lines to represent a horse today, I do like to err on the side of a Turfer's better L/ep, Tpp and Hidden (and considering Total Energy and Perceptor Line Score).

FWIW, I really would have looked hard at the #10 to see why it should be a candidate to Win today at first asking after its layoff. Not really too big a question, as the #2 and #8 seemed pretty clear.

yours,

Ted

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted
Thank you for that clear explanation

I am on the road so If you refer to my post from the selections area
Bill selection post it will help

I sure don't come up with my contenders or lines anything as
sophisticated as you do

But as you said you do,. I do the same procedure ( as basic as it is )all the time
I stepped right past the winner in tier 2
I have a problem betting turf horses- More so at longer distance that have better ep ratings than Lp

Using my "binder method" I went with the 2 horse between the top 2
rated 2 and 8

For my second win bet I went to the 4th rated 10 Horse
It was the "red " # 1 Class rated horse and as my post shows
I went with the better readouts in LP Hidden and Total energy

I didn't see much in the tier 3 # 5 horse
I thought the 10 was better than the 8 for reasons already mentioned
so The binder pick was tier 1 and 4

I saw the layoff , maybe your right I may have been asking a
horse to do too much with a 3 vdc readout I think Doc mentions
no fear of layoff horses tier 1 and 2 VDC
but not Tier 3

anyway your way seems a much better way

Putting in lines and hoping they run to the readouts
works for me

Looking to learn
Bill