Playing 5f races - Pace and Cap

BJennet · 06-16-2009, 08:11 PM

It seems to me that it's impossible to play 5f races like longer sprints. Winners often don't show up on the BL/BL because their extreme early energy limits them on the TE measurement. One solution that's worked for me (this is on the dirt, haven't tried it as much on grass), is to take the top-ranked four or five horses on F1, and of this group, bet the two with the top TE. I only have a limited sample of races, so you might want to try this only on paper, but it seems much more predictive than using the usual factors. Good luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

For The Lead · 06-16-2009, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BJennet

It seems to me that it's impossible to play 5f races like longer sprints. Winners often don't show up on the BL/BL because their extreme early energy limits them on the TE measurement. One solution that's worked for me (this is on the dirt, haven't tried it as much on grass), is to take the top-ranked four or five horses on F1, and of this group, bet the two with the top TE. I only have a limited sample of races, so you might want to try this only on paper, but it seems much more predictive than using the usual factors. Good luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Have you noticed how second fraction horses fare in these races?

Tim Y · 06-17-2009, 11:42 AM

At most tracks the e/l is king at these distances, but strangely it is NOT what to look for at 4.5f. Wonder why? maybe because mostly two year olds run that distance?

tom · 06-17-2009, 03:51 PM

Least deceleration at 4.5?

RichieP · 06-19-2009, 06:35 PM

Speaking of 5f races this is the 4th tonight at Churchill that will run in about an hour.

5f on the grass:

1) 3 V/dc ranked #1's (#9-5-1)
2) Binder Improver (#1)sitting in 4th tier Bl/Bl and moving to first V/dc
3) Lone late on E/l graph (#1) in race with multiple earlies

Complete chaos

Going with

off the ml for a biscuit

RichieP · 06-20-2009, 04:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

Speaking of 5f races this is the 4th tonight at Churchill that will run in about an hour.

5f on the grass:

1) 3 V/dc ranked #1's (#9-5-1)
2) Binder Improver (#1)sitting in 4th tier Bl/Bl and moving to first V/dc
3) Lone late on E/l graph (#1) in race with multiple earlies

Complete chaos

Going with

off the ml for a biscuit

Result:
Winner is the #5 at 5/2. #6 placed

My wagers are perfect display on how to bet around the win and exacta on Bl/Bl

tfm · 06-20-2009, 11:44 AM

This was an 'interesting' result to say the least. The 1, Rinterval, as shown in the chart, made a monster move last out in a race that, essentially, would've gone 1-2-3-4 otherwise. All she had to do yesterday was STAY CLOSE, and odds were she'd run down just about anything. And, if there were any moves in the race, she was a lock. However, her jockey chose to have her way back in the race and though she closed well, the race was over before she ever got started running. And the fractions weren't any faster, either.

Next time.

Tim Y · 06-20-2009, 12:51 PM

e/l e/l e/l e/l e/l

often the most important factor, angle called STYLE OVER SUBSTANCE

at just about ANY race track on the dirt

Early is alive and well no matter what the "group think" tells you

06-17-2009, 11:42 AM	#3
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	At most tracks the e/l is king at these distances, but strangely it is NOT what to look for at 4.5f. Wonder why? maybe because mostly two year olds run that distance? __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

06-20-2009, 11:44 AM	#7
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	This was an 'interesting' result to say the least. The 1, Rinterval, as shown in the chart, made a monster move last out in a race that, essentially, would've gone 1-2-3-4 otherwise. All she had to do yesterday was STAY CLOSE, and odds were she'd run down just about anything. And, if there were any moves in the race, she was a lock. However, her jockey chose to have her way back in the race and though she closed well, the race was over before she ever got started running. And the fractions weren't any faster, either. Next time. Attached Images Last edited by tfm; 06-20-2009 at 11:47 AM.

06-20-2009, 12:51 PM	#8
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	e/l e/l e/l e/l e/l often the most important factor, angle called STYLE OVER SUBSTANCE at just about ANY race track on the dirt Early is alive and well no matter what the "group think" tells you __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

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06-16-2009, 08:11 PM	#1
BJennet Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 311	Playing 5f races It seems to me that it's impossible to play 5f races like longer sprints. Winners often don't show up on the BL/BL because their extreme early energy limits them on the TE measurement. One solution that's worked for me (this is on the dirt, haven't tried it as much on grass), is to take the top-ranked four or five horses on F1, and of this group, bet the two with the top TE. I only have a limited sample of races, so you might want to try this only on paper, but it seems much more predictive than using the usual factors. Good luck. Cheers, B Jennet

06-17-2009, 03:51 PM	#4
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	Least deceleration at 4.5?

06-19-2009, 06:35 PM	#5
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Speaking of 5f races this is the 4th tonight at Churchill that will run in about an hour. 5f on the grass: 1) 3 V/dc ranked #1's (#9-5-1) 2) Binder Improver (#1)sitting in 4th tier Bl/Bl and moving to first V/dc 3) Lone late on E/l graph (#1) in race with multiple earlies Complete chaos Going with off the ml for a biscuit Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 06-19-2009 at 06:39 PM.