Arlington Race 8

[Bob Cochran]

This morning when i saw this race it appeared to be one with value.
Later, i noticed there were 2 scratches. #3, and #6.

The median energy for 6 fur. is 68.25 %

contenders are #'s 1 (E) -4 (OTE) - 7(E) -8 (OTE)

median energY:

#1= 68.40 %.....#4 = 67.90 %.....#7 = 70.60 %.....#8 = 68.50 %

pacelines used: #1 (L3) #4 (L2) #7 (L3) #8 (L4)

threw out #2 (L4), and #9 (L10)

top 5 APV and Class are #'s 1,4,9,8,7

Will have to wait to see the odds at 4:30 pm (if i can stay awake that long)

If i wager, #4 is the key-box

Let's wait and see.

BobC

[Bob Cochran]

It's a Go!
BobC

[tfm]

Like Saxby: she appears to have some 'fight' in her. She's getting hit a bit oddswise, however; won't take < 20:1

Horse to beat is Timeless Miss.

[Bill V.]

odds changed late
Win bets 8 9
ex 4/89

Bill

[tfm]

Another example of why I've stopped playing AP seriously. The 7 is a steady 4:1 throughout the betting. When the 2 is slammed at the gate and doesn't break, and the 7 is loose, 1st flash they post, the 7 is 5:2.

Now, let all the WHALE supporters over at PA argue that this one is just another case of money from all the pools coming in late rather than what it really is: PAST POSTING by WHALES. Happens regularly at AP.

[Bill V.]

I have to get over early horses

FEAR - False Evidence Appearing Real

Right there but I went around her

[Bob Cochran]

Oh well, that's why they call them CHAOS races!
BobC:

[tfm]

This wasn't a CHAOS race. Not before the fact and certainly it wasn't run as one.

[Bob Cochran]

Any race for nw2 lifetime that has lof and long lof horses in the race is
considered by myself as a "chaos" race. The #4 didn't fire. What happens if the #7 fails to fire ?

IMHO,
BObC

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Bob Cochran

Any race for nw2 lifetime that has lof and long lof horses in the race is considered by myself as a "chaos" race. The #4 didn't fire. What happens if the #7 fails to fire ?

IMHO,
BObC

hello Bob, everyone:

I am glad I saw this last post because I truly would like to know how you define a race to be chaos ??

Is a chaos race a race where every horse in the field has never raced farther than 5 1-2 furlongs and are now in a 1 1-16th mile turf race ? (This scenario often happens later in the 2-year-old season when it's time to stretch out and/or try the turf.)

Is a chaos race one that has some horses dropping 40% in claiming value, some horses coming off nine-week layoffs plus the two program favorites are trained by guys that win at a 6.5 per cent success rate ??

Is a chaos race one where the entire seven horse field is 7-for-168 (the nw 2-life variety) ??

And, is it a chaos race if there are a number of horses capable of winning, meaning your typical even or 'wide-open' race ? How does a generally 'tough' race differ from a 'chaos' race ?

Finally, is the race chaotic because of the glaring mish-mash of horses in the field, or is it really the handicappers' mind that's in a state of chaotic confusion ??

Thanks Bob for your recent postings and sharing of your handicapping thoughts.

Good luck, always.