Sunday Marathon from GP - 9th - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 02-28-2010, 02:24 PM

Field of 8 after early scratches. First the conditions then the entrants

Bill Lyster · 02-28-2010, 02:25 PM

The last 4 runners

Bill Lyster · 02-28-2010, 03:00 PM

2 line 1 gets 138.5 and line 4 nets 137.4, neither very good
3 line 2 134.0 pressing the lead
4 fourlines 2-134.1, 3-135.5, 5-134.7, 6-135.5 obvious leader who does not always do well when the going is not firm. The Arlington race was listed as good but might have been deeper than that. Couldn't win at SA race 9 on good turf and won by a nose at Monmouth

Because of less than firm conditions use line 3 as pace line so, 47.6 -111.6-135.5

5 lines 2 and 6 almost same at somewhere around 137.5 before adjusting for lengths beaten
6 line 1 = 136.1 and line 4 is 133.9 or 134; a sustained horse that runs well
7 Foregin first time starter that probably runs on surfaces less than firm most of the time. Only mile race would not be competitive here, but ???? due to no fast paces ran against
8 line 2 is 136.6, but seems to close on all turf surfaces
9 one slow paced race to use.

If 3 truly presses Presious Passion and the ground is less than firm, these two cancel each other out, leaving the 6 to run them down

The 2 has closed off the project pace, but never won. The 3 has pressed the projected pace and if PP runs off as is usual, the 3 should have first run. If 3 presses the 4, both lose.

The 5 has never really faced this pace. The 6 has closed off this pace and has to be respected.

The 7 won a 10f marathon after a long rest and is an unknown commodity here, but may benefit from less than firm conditions.

The 8 won a grade 2 last out off a crawling pace, but has closed against the expected pace.

The 2, 4 and 8 have either won or placed in graded events.

I think that the 2 comes from too far back, that the 3 will try to stay too close to the 4. So my bets are the 6 and 8 to win, and an odds check on the 7 if say more than 5/1.

Bill Lyster · 02-28-2010, 03:50 PM

Scratch the 9, nowa 7 horse race

Bill Lyster · 02-28-2010, 05:16 PM

Final bets are 6 to win/place and 3 to place/show.

Also 8 on top in tri against the best closers and the 6-3

Bill Lyster · 02-28-2010, 06:11 PM

Favorite wins at 8/5 with Winchester 2nd - not much price in the end,,,

02-28-2010, 02:24 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	Sunday Marathon from GP - 9th Field of 8 after early scratches. First the conditions then the entrants Attached Images

02-28-2010, 02:25 PM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	The last 4 runners Attached Images

02-28-2010, 03:00 PM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	Best mile times for entrants 2 line 1 gets 138.5 and line 4 nets 137.4, neither very good 3 line 2 134.0 pressing the lead 4 fourlines 2-134.1, 3-135.5, 5-134.7, 6-135.5 obvious leader who does not always do well when the going is not firm. The Arlington race was listed as good but might have been deeper than that. Couldn't win at SA race 9 on good turf and won by a nose at Monmouth Because of less than firm conditions use line 3 as pace line so, 47.6 -111.6-135.5 5 lines 2 and 6 almost same at somewhere around 137.5 before adjusting for lengths beaten 6 line 1 = 136.1 and line 4 is 133.9 or 134; a sustained horse that runs well 7 Foregin first time starter that probably runs on surfaces less than firm most of the time. Only mile race would not be competitive here, but ???? due to no fast paces ran against 8 line 2 is 136.6, but seems to close on all turf surfaces 9 one slow paced race to use. If 3 truly presses Presious Passion and the ground is less than firm, these two cancel each other out, leaving the 6 to run them down The 2 has closed off the project pace, but never won. The 3 has pressed the projected pace and if PP runs off as is usual, the 3 should have first run. If 3 presses the 4, both lose. The 5 has never really faced this pace. The 6 has closed off this pace and has to be respected. The 7 won a 10f marathon after a long rest and is an unknown commodity here, but may benefit from less than firm conditions. The 8 won a grade 2 last out off a crawling pace, but has closed against the expected pace. The 2, 4 and 8 have either won or placed in graded events. I think that the 2 comes from too far back, that the 3 will try to stay too close to the 4. So my bets are the 6 and 8 to win, and an odds check on the 7 if say more than 5/1.

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02-28-2010, 03:50 PM	#4
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	Scratch the 9, nowa 7 horse race

02-28-2010, 05:16 PM	#5
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	Final bets are 6 to win/place and 3 to place/show. Also 8 on top in tri against the best closers and the 6-3

02-28-2010, 06:11 PM	#6
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	Favorite wins at 8/5 with Winchester 2nd - not much price in the end,,,