May have asked before , but please???

[pktruckdriver]

I was wondering , if you did not mind , there really are not that many of us that we could hurt someones local track or play ground any if we found it.

So the question is this:

What track do you love using RDSS at the most on, and would sharing it here be detrimental to you if you did, God I hope not, if so then please do not say, otherwise please share with us what you know works for you, and on what tracks, please????

ANy questions ask me, please

Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

I guess some tracks are easy enough to choose, like

Delaware
Tampa
Woodbine

But what the smaller ones, are they worth looking at, like

PID
PM
AlB
any Louisiana tracks

Just wondering how this may be to you or maybe why it does not work ?

Thanks
Patrick

[dlivery]

Hi

What I have found is you have to know your track this is not zig zag all over and play with what is winning for you.

Keeping paper or what ever records as you play the race you will see how this will build your confidence your track profile for you to use.

This is how I do it what ever works.

Dlivery

[seattlesnake]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

But what the smaller ones, are they worth looking at, like

PID
PM
AlB
any Louisiana tracks

Just wondering how this may be to you or maybe why it does not work ?

Thanks
Patrick

If its good enuff for Doc to come back and race on....must be good enuff to bet on....

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

I guess some tracks are easy enough to choose, like

Delaware
Tampa
Woodbine

But what the smaller ones, are they worth looking at, like

PID
PM
AlB
any Louisiana tracks

Just wondering how this may be to you or maybe why it does not work ?

Thanks
Patrick

The best tracks to play have nothing to do with whether or not they are "big, small or in between". The length of the meet is the determining factor. In other words, tracks like Woodbine, Penn National, Philadelphia Park, Mountaineer Park and Charles Town. The tracks with short meets such as Del Mar and Saratoga are the worst. The reason on BOTH counts is summed up in two words, RECORD KEEPING".

Track profiling records and decision models should be well defined. In other words, keeping these records on the basis of just distance and surface is not enough.
These records should be kept not just by distance and surface, but also but sex and class. So, both records should be kept in the following way.

Maiden claiming
Maiden Special Weights
Claiming races
Allowance races
Starter Allowance races
Handicap races
Stakes races

In every classification, these records should be kept by distance, surface and sex

With maiden claiming races, you can split these records into groups based on claiming price if you so desire.

With maiden special weights, they are pretty much straight forward

Handicap and stakes races are straight forward

That brings us to claiming, allowance and starter allowance races.

In claiming races, in addition to distance, surface, sex and the wide range of claiming prices, there are "conditions". If you don't know what they are, here is a partial list.
NW2L - non winners of two races lifetime
NW3L - " " " three " "
NW4L - " " " four " "
NW16M - " " of one race in the last six months
NW26M - " " " two " " " " " "
There are many more and you would be amazed at how different each of these can be.

The same thing holds true for Allowance races. Some of the condition possibilities are:
NW2L
NW1X
NW1$X
And there are many others. And, an allowance race is an allowance race is an allowance race IS NOT TRUE. There is a world of difference between an Allowance race for NW2L and an Allowance race for NW3$X.

And Starter Allowance races can be the same way.

When records are kept in this fashion, a 4 week meet or a 6 week meet just don't get it! There simply isn't enough time/races to build a profile or model that is meaningful in any way.

[pktruckdriver]

Thanks FTL

This scenario could lead to 20+ model's for each track, may I inquire as to how many model's you have currently?

Do you use the export feature or your own program to Model with?

Again Thanks
Patrick

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Thanks FTL

This scenario could lead to 20+ model's for each track, may I inquire as to how many model's you have currently?

Do you use the export feature or your own program to Model with?

Again Thanks
Patrick

If all you have is 20 models for a track, then you don't have enough.
Elsewhere in this thread I listed 7 groups. If all you do is break those 7 groups down to males and females you already have 14 models.
Then you have to break each model down to surface. That's 28 models.
Then you have to break each one down to distance. Some tracks race at more distances than others. Let's take MNR as an example. ON THE DIRT, they run 5f, 5,5f, 6f, 8.0f, 8.3f and 8.5f. So, you have 7 groups, males and females, that's 14 models. Then you have 6 distances for each of those. This brings you to a total of 42 models, just for dirt racing. Personally, I keep additional models for each of these broken down by race conditions. Is it a lot of work? Yes. But until you do it and see the results, the value just isn't apparent.
If you haven't read my post to Bill V., here is the link. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7069
I just touched, very lightly, on the benefit of breaking down models there.
EVERYBODY'S track profile should be the same for each profile since everybody is using the same information from the winner of the race.
The REAL VALUE is in the decision model, where the information is based on each individuals line selection. This is where good and consistent line selection pays off.

As to your question regarding exporting or using my own program? I use my own program where results are stored in a data base. From that data base I can pull out any model I want.

The reality of all this is, two of the groups I mentioned were "handicap and stake" races. Think about it. How many of those race are you going to get at ANY track. They are almost not worth modeling.
Next, except for the west coast and Florida, turf racing is a seasonal affair. They run turf races in the summer and that is it. And keep in mind that there is only a couple of those turf races in a given day. I find modeling turf races at tracks other than the west coast and Florida an exercise in futility. And even at those places, it takes a while to accumulate races that will make them meaningful.
For me, dirt racing (or poly) is the meat and potatoes of racing.

[pktruckdriver]

Okay if I go with 1-2 tracks only then any suggestions on thos tracks?

GP or Calder ? Probally not

Finger Lakes or the winter home Tampa

Woodbine

Mountaineer very long meet

Penn National, long meet, but many cancels in winter

Delaware, not sure of length of meet??

It seems that Monmouth/Saratoga/Keeneland/Churchill are all out, no?
Yet I do moderate to OK at Mon and CH , then maybe spot plays there?

Well did I leave any prospective track out, please?

patrick

[gandalf380]

Patrick

I personally like Woodbine and Louisiana Downs. Don't bite off more than you can chew. Start with only 6f. When you consistently beat them, add another distance.

Charlie

[gl45]

Patrick,
get a life. Stop asking for help and just put some work if you want to be successful. From Pace Advantage to the present forum a bunch of people did give you excellent advices...what have you learned...I guess nothing, and if is the case....keep gambling your money away.
Good luck....you need some.
gl45