Pen 4th wed 9/8 - Pace and Cap

mikesal57 · 09-08-2010, 12:47 PM

interesting cheap race
how do most of these horse run ?

except?

barb craven · 09-08-2010, 01:11 PM

I know you're a matcher Mike, but I've had some success with Penn. At 5f I look at TT, which for me would be the 4.

PeteC · 09-08-2010, 03:20 PM

Hey Mike-

Tough race at that tricky (for me) 5 furlong distance...

I only see three horses who have won or finished very close from 3rd position or further back at the 1st Call: #6, #7, and #9. I don't see a dominant early horse among the others, so I'll look at these three horses as my OTE runners.

I eliminate #6 because he hasn't done anything since the win first time out. #9 won last out running 3-5-1-1. It looks like she was in a mix of horses up close to the pace through the first two calls ( 3rd beaten 1/2 and 5th beaten 3/4).

Two races back #7 beat #9 but in that race #9 had to fight for the lead through the first 2 calls and only got beat 3/4 of a length at the end.

I give a bit of an edge to #9, and hopefully she can lay a little further off the true earlies and not get mowed down late. How do you see it?

mikesal57 · 09-08-2010, 07:40 PM

The 2 by far has the best numbers...but a drop this low and should be bet more than 5/2 has me thinking..

taking the 4 & 7

gl
mike

Rverge · 09-08-2010, 07:46 PM

the 2 is a 8/5 ml. does one take the 5/2 or 2-1 as a overlay?
2min 9/5? or the 3 2nd ml fav @ 5-1

Rverge · 09-08-2010, 07:48 PM

3 r4

Rverge · 09-08-2010, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rverge

the 2 is a 8/5 ml. does one take the 5/2 or 2-1 as a overlay?
2min 9/5? or the 3 2nd ml fav @ 5-1

2 4/5

i never bet fractions.... 2 won by 3+

mikesal57 · 09-08-2010, 08:26 PM

race 6

a better race to bet with no drastic drops

speed with 5 -6-12

betting 4 & 7

09-08-2010, 01:11 PM	#2
barb craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada Posts: 1,316	I know you're a matcher Mike, but I've had some success with Penn. At 5f I look at TT, which for me would be the 4. __________________ Listen...Learn...Stay Safe.

09-08-2010, 07:40 PM	#4
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	The 2 by far has the best numbers...but a drop this low and should be bet more than 5/2 has me thinking.. taking the 4 & 7 gl mike Attached Images __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack Last edited by mikesal57; 09-08-2010 at 07:42 PM. Reason: wrong key

09-08-2010, 07:46 PM	#5
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	the 2 is a 8/5 ml. does one take the 5/2 or 2-1 as a overlay? 2min 9/5? or the 3 2nd ml fav @ 5-1 __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.

09-08-2010, 08:26 PM	#8
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	race 6 a better race to bet with no drastic drops speed with 5 -6-12 betting 4 & 7 Attached Images __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

09-08-2010, 03:20 PM	#3
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Hey Mike- Tough race at that tricky (for me) 5 furlong distance... I only see three horses who have won or finished very close from 3rd position or further back at the 1st Call: #6, #7, and #9. I don't see a dominant early horse among the others, so I'll look at these three horses as my OTE runners. I eliminate #6 because he hasn't done anything since the win first time out. #9 won last out running 3-5-1-1. It looks like she was in a mix of horses up close to the pace through the first two calls ( 3rd beaten 1/2 and 5th beaten 3/4). Two races back #7 beat #9 but in that race #9 had to fight for the lead through the first 2 calls and only got beat 3/4 of a length at the end. I give a bit of an edge to #9, and hopefully she can lay a little further off the true earlies and not get mowed down late. How do you see it?

09-08-2010, 07:48 PM	#6
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	3 r4 __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.