WOX 07-06-11 Race (4)

[partsnut]

WOX 07-06-11 Race (4)

This is a race of interest for me.
My techniques may differ from many of the boards handicappers
but I am always will to learn new techniques.
I would welcome opinions on this race and comparison screen shots
showing the group how one came to their decision.
I believe we can always learn from each other. There is no disgrace in
picking the wrong horse in a race. We all do it on a daily basis.

I'm very impressed with the RDSS E/L projections and some of the screen shots that have been posted by Ted's mom. I believe she has developed into a top rated handicapper. Evidently, RDSS works for her.
Nice work, mom.

Here is the 4th race at today's WOX and the way it plays out for me.

[partsnut]

I figured I may as well include my Energy screen shots.

[barb craven]

Thank you for those kind works Parsnut, but I have to tell you, I put those cards up with the results and EL/2 readouts because it was requested by some people on the board. I by no means caught them all, but the ones I did were double digit ones. I just happen to be one of the lucky ones who are testing the alpha RDSS2. Woodbine is on an upswing for the moment, but who knows for how long.
Barb (Ted's proud mom yes, but Barb in my own right)

[barb craven]

Pardon my ignorance, but where is WOX?

[JimG]

Originally Posted by barb craven

Pardon my ignorance, but where is WOX?

Hi Barb,

That is the 3 digit code used by brisnet to denote Woodbine.

Jim

[partsnut]

barb craven:

Thank you for those kind works Parsnut

Hi Barb, Please feel free to call me "Bill".
We have a couple of Bills here. I'm Bill H.

The Alpha RDSS2 sounds exciting. I haven't tried RDSS in quite a while but
hopefully will do so in the near future.
There are certain features that I have been watching in your screen shots
that I believe have merit.

If you are at liberty to say, I have a few questions?
Will the new software eliminate the users pace line selection and will it incorporate Dave Schwartz's "New Pace"?
Dave says that "New Pace" does not pick pace lines. If it doesn't then will it incorporate his impact values for distances and surfaces at all tracks? Or possibly, Ted has formulated his own?

From what I've read, this is supposed to be a new concept which if so, would be refreshing. Hopefully it will have an accurate contender selection algorithm which in my mind is the heart of the handicapping process.

[barb craven]

[quote=partsnut;71683]barb craven: Hi Bill
No the RDSS2 won't eliminate the user's need for pace line selection, but will give you several options that will be automated according to your wants and/or needs... As for the other questions, I don't want to presume to talk for Ted, but I think if you haven't already, you should go to http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=78 and http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=92 and read them. They will answer most if not all your questions of what will be included in RDSS2 Beta. It's going to be exciting when all the features are incorporated.
Barb

[partsnut]

barb craven:

Hi Bill
No the RDSS2 won't eliminate the user's need for pace line selection, but will give you several options that will be automated according to your wants and/or needs... As for the other questions, I don't want to presume to talk for Ted, but I think if you haven't already, you should go to http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=78 and http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=92 and read them. They will answer most if not all your questions of what will be included in RDSS2 Beta. It's going to be exciting when all the features are incorporated.
Barb

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Barb, thank you for your response. I'll follow the links and try to get a better understanding of the new product.

[Ted Craven]

Bill,

The upcoming EL 2.0 module in RDSS 2.0 is my implementation of all Dave's rules from his NewPace video (and subsequent amendments by him). With the exception that we are using Speed Rating data supplied by TrackMaster (Equibase) and also familiar Ratings calculated internally by RDSS (Total Energy, Adjusted Speed Rating, Perceptor Total) - the rules used are as faithful to his product as I can make it and any errors (so far) are mine.

As such, it does indeed use a method of automatically identifying a statistically sound range of "Speed" ability. It is a semantic quibble whether or not it 'selects pacelines', but it does consider the horse's entire Past Performance. It doesn't use other aspects of any of Dave Schwartz other software, impact values, etc - it is stand alone.

There's got to be pushing a hundred races published here using this method. Richie P compiled a short (profitable) study from Evangeline using EL 2.0, and though no one has published a larger (multi-hundred) statistical study I can refer to, anecdotally the contender selection seems to be fairly sound. Users will be the judge. I believe Bill Lyster intends to conduct just such a larger study when the upgrade to EL 2.0 I am working on is ready for Beta testing Round 1, later this month.

EL 2.0 (NewPace) is just a small part of RDSS 2.0 - and it requires a related betting strategy to take best advantage of it (outlined in Dave's video and also in his subsequent Basics of Winning video series). In my opinion, it becomes most useful in exotic vertical wagers - less so for Win. You do need to license NewPace from Dave in order to use it in RDSS2, but I thought that many NewPace users would appreciate having a software implementation of it other than Dave's HSH product, and simultaneously get the opportunity to discover the strengths of the modern Sartin Methodology. Calculating the NewPace numbers and ranks by hand (or entering them manually to a spreadsheet) will get old very fast!

Aside from NewPace, RDSS 2.0 will have several automated Paceline Selection Strategies, as well as the means to 'roll your own'. Being bold, yet consistent in paceline selection is what sometimes gets you onto horses the crowd does not like, which is our only hope for long-term profit.

cheers,

Ted

[partsnut]

Barb,

I can't read this link because I am refused access to it.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=92