BEL 10-15-11 Race-1 - Pace and Cap

partsnut · 10-15-2011, 09:31 AM

I was very impressed with Bill V.'s explaination on how he uses KGEN.
I have to commend him for sharing it with all.
I've been experimenting with it and found very nice priced winners with it.

Today I singled out a race that in my opinion is " A Very Tough Race " and
came up with these choices as my top 2.
My choices are #4 and #6.
I would appreciate the opinions of others and how they came to their decision.

alydar_ David · 10-15-2011, 01:13 PM

You picked a hard race, Bill.

#4 Joey's Chance is in decent form and has the best turf sprint of all in his past performances (if you consider AQU mile a sprint, which I do).

#12 Winaholic has the best last race on the turf, but it was all the way back in February and at 8.5 furlongs. Also, it's a campaign horse with multiple layoffs. I'm not fond of campaign horses.

I could name others with a chance, but I'm sure you know who they are.

I don't think SP has too much weight here, but I might be mistaken as I don't have records for Belmont. In any event I'm going with FW.

Joey's trainer and jockey are unimpressive on the lawn, but at 8-1 I'm willing to take a shot.

Joey it is.

tfm · 10-15-2011, 01:57 PM

Not a great betting race.

I like #1A, Recharged. But I'm a bit surprised at the low odds on this one.

partsnut · 10-15-2011, 03:56 PM

TFM did a great job on the race.

Here's how they finished,

Bill V. · 10-15-2011, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by partsnut

I was very impressed with Bill V.'s explaination on how he uses KGEN.
I have to commend him for sharing it with all.
I've been experimenting with it and found very nice priced winners with it.

Today I singled out a race that in my opinion is " A Very Tough Race " and
came up with these choices as my top 2.
My choices are #4 and #6.
I would appreciate the opinions of others and how they came to their decision.

can you tell me your pacelines for your top 4 horses

thanks
Bill

partsnut · 10-16-2011, 08:17 AM

Bill V.

Quote:

can you tell me your pacelines for your top 4 horses

thanks
Bill

------------------------------------------------------------
1 - L(3)
4 - L(1)
5 - L(2)
6 - L(2)

Bill V. · 10-16-2011, 11:49 AM

Thank You Bill

I entered your lines into KGen i was checking to see if i got different results
I ran the race twice with each the 1 or 2 adjust. I see you used the 2 adjust. the 1 adjust has the 1 as the second choice, I agree that the 2 adjust was good in this case the with turf and dirt lines and a yld turf line

Another trick that helps me is when I run Thoromation I keep a finger on the
Pause button and run the race slowly and stop the screen along the way
I also stop the screen as soon as a horse hits the wire ( for win bets only)
As some times the horses bunch up at the end which I thought might be the case in your Bel 1 race today

Thanks

GS
Bill

10-16-2011, 11:49 AM	#7
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Run Thank You Bill I entered your lines into KGen i was checking to see if i got different results I ran the race twice with each the 1 or 2 adjust. I see you used the 2 adjust. the 1 adjust has the 1 as the second choice, I agree that the 2 adjust was good in this case the with turf and dirt lines and a yld turf line Another trick that helps me is when I run Thoromation I keep a finger on the Pause button and run the race slowly and stop the screen along the way I also stop the screen as soon as a horse hits the wire ( for win bets only) As some times the horses bunch up at the end which I thought might be the case in your Bel 1 race today Thanks GS Bill

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10-15-2011, 09:31 AM	#1
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	BEL 10-15-11 Race-1 I was very impressed with Bill V.'s explaination on how he uses KGEN. I have to commend him for sharing it with all. I've been experimenting with it and found very nice priced winners with it. Today I singled out a race that in my opinion is " A Very Tough Race " and came up with these choices as my top 2. My choices are #4 and #6. I would appreciate the opinions of others and how they came to their decision. Attached Images

10-15-2011, 01:13 PM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	You picked a hard race, Bill. #4 Joey's Chance is in decent form and has the best turf sprint of all in his past performances (if you consider AQU mile a sprint, which I do). #12 Winaholic has the best last race on the turf, but it was all the way back in February and at 8.5 furlongs. Also, it's a campaign horse with multiple layoffs. I'm not fond of campaign horses. I could name others with a chance, but I'm sure you know who they are. I don't think SP has too much weight here, but I might be mistaken as I don't have records for Belmont. In any event I'm going with FW. Joey's trainer and jockey are unimpressive on the lawn, but at 8-1 I'm willing to take a shot. Joey it is.

10-15-2011, 01:57 PM	#3
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	Not a great betting race. I like #1A, Recharged. But I'm a bit surprised at the low odds on this one.

10-15-2011, 03:56 PM	#4
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	TFM did a great job on the race. Here's how they finished, Attached Images