Total Energy

[shoeless]

I was listening to one of the Vegas seminars where Jim B was talking
about using the EXDC program.He said that the horse with the top total
energy is the fastest horse in the race.If this is the case then why not just bet the top 2 total energy horses.

[partsnut]

Originally Posted by shoeless

I was listening to one of the Vegas seminars where Jim B was talking
about using the EXDC program.He said that the horse with the top total
energy is the fastest horse in the race.If this is the case then why not just bet the top 2 total energy horses.

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Jeff,
If it were only that simple.
If you will notice,most horses do not match or repeat their best efforts.
As well, a fast horse whose running style does not fit the way the race sets up will be at a disadvantage. Example: a slow pace favors an early type and a fast pace favors a late type. The exceptions being an early horse with the best sustained that can overcome a fast pace or a late horse overcoming and staying close to a slow pace. Racing luck, poor or intentional jockey rating, judgement and position are some more factors you may want to consider.
Happy New Year to you and Janie.

[shoeless]

Parts,

Happy New Year to you and your wife as well.


Even if there is a disadvantage match up wise fast horses win races.I
also realize that this would work the best assuming you pick good
pacelines.

[Seven Furlongs]

My sense about total energy is akin to what partsnut said. If you consider the idea of a 2 to 1 relationship between 1 extra energy unit expended early resulting in 2 units of energy lost at the end, then a too-early pace for a horse should result in a slower time, thereby giving a lower energy total due to a flabbier 3rd fraction. If the horse runs at a pace where it does not need to expend extra units of energy to keep up, then it can run to its ability and thereby produce a higher total energy time.

I suppose what I'm saying is that total energy is somewhat a function of the pace the horse ran against. Of course, this idea is probably a bit elastic as it depends on the class of the horse.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by shoeless

I was listening to one of the Vegas seminars where Jim B was talking
about using the EXDC program.He said that the horse with the top total
energy is the fastest horse in the race.If this is the case then why not just bet the top 2 total energy horses.

Good Morning, Shoeless. Did you just have your second cup of coffee?

One of the best assets anyone can have in this game, is the ability to "think".

What is the difference between "total energy", "final time", "speed rating" or even a "Beyer number"?
Do they not all represent the same thing, which is how fast a horse negotiated a distance?

You are not the first person to, all of a sudden, "realize" what total energy means.
The problem is, the fastest horse doesn't always win.
And when picking lines, many people could end up with "different" horses being "the fastest" because they all used "different" lines. So which horse really IS the fastest or has the highest total energy?

A guy I know used to say the fastest horse ALWAYS wins.
When a race was over he would look at the speed ratings.
If the horse that won had the highest speed rating in its' last race, he would point to it and say "see? it was the fastest horse!"
But that didn't always happen.
So in that case he would say "it must have been the fastest horse. It WON didn't it?"

[shoeless]

Parts and Zip Zap,

You have a race 6 fur same track horses ran last time

A wired the field 22.0 45.1 110.0

B was 4 lengths off second call and won 22.0 44.2 109.2


Today A is once again the lone speed who will you bet


FTL,

Good post and Im beat was up 5:15 today to go to work

[shoeless]

I think it's B Jennett who does well with this,from his posts he seems
to be an excellent at picking pacelines.

FTL and Bill V also seem to do very well picking pacelines.

I used to be but cant seem to do it any longer

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by shoeless

I think it's B Jennett who does well with this,from his posts he seems
to be an excellent at picking pacelines.

I think you will also find from his postings that he sticks with the high end races where horses are more likely to repeat a good performance.

[gl45]

Jeff,
your brain is clutter with too much handicapping information from outside sources. Stick with what you know best. How many times with discuss races before the fact and we pick the right pace lines in 5 minutes or less. We only used Syn2, and good handicapping judgement.

[shoeless]

Pino,

Your right about my brain being cluttered

You pick good pacelines too

I was just wondering about TE and how important it is