reality vs. POSSIBLE reality

[tompkins]

Given those two options, I chose the former. Imagine a stockbroker making a decision on data 14 hours BEFORE the active day's trading tells him what the market is like when he wants to make that trade. Things change. Options yesterday MAY NOT be the reality today.

In my field, when we do pre-op bloodwork, we don't do it 14 hours before the operation since white cell counts and blood clotting times can vary right up until the time of the procedure. I would be visited by a malpractice attorney very quickly if I made a decision on data that old.

Races are very much the same, but to a lesser degree. A few weekends ago, something dramatically changed at Aqueduct. The speed died in EVERY CONTEST. Without keeping a running tab on each winner's early late balance projection, it would have be disastrous. Yesterday's logic, based upon hundreds of races, just was NOT the logic on that day and it was ONLY thre tracking of the early/late in every contest, that several of us picked up on the contra-bias (TODAY'S LOGIC) and survived the card.

I always do the cards superficially the night before but those decisions are tempered by what TODAY's races are feeding back to me. Otherwise those decisions are OFTEN irrelevant.

below is the reality of a day when the early/late balance was king. I would NOT have looked at this screen last night as much as I did today since it represents today's reality NOT last night's POSSIBLE reality.