contest race

[rmath]

Could any one explain the trackmaster SR and DTV for this horse s last race.

[pktruckdriver]

Look at the 3 horse and the winner the 9 horse, how can they be so different in adjusted speed rating, they should be closer it looks like, why so big a difference? I am totally confused, whe did not have the 10 or 9, but should we have?

[rmath]

The horse I posted above ran 2nd but I was not able to get him any higher than 6th on vdc.

[pktruckdriver]

The DTV is what we are confused about, one has 105 -4 and 90 , yet the 9 horse is 112 -3 76 ,

1st number raw speed rating

2nd number is DTV

3rd number adjusted speed rating


why so big a difference , please


I think we should have had the 9 or 10, no?

[pktruckdriver]

1 more thing what is Net Speed rating, all about? Should it be used to find winners, is it reliable? tHANK YOU

[Bill V.]

Patrick The big difference in adjusted speed ratings probably has something to do with the 12.0 Turf marathon distance adjusted to todays 8.5 distance
The 3 is from the same 8.5 distance but a dirt/poly line
In the Sartin Adjusted Speed rating scales turf speed ratings are almost always faster than dirt (poly) Doc mentions this in the video seminar tapes.

The Trackmaster speed ratings also have a class adjustment. here you are comparing a line from a grade 2 race to a 125000 restricted stakes race.

About the race
I would not have had the winner I have no recent comparable line to use and the horse is 20/1 ML a throw out in almost every race
This is a graded stakes with weight alllowance for the weaker horses.
The winner carried the high weight ! 122 lbs.


150000 Grade 2 stakes weight allowance for proformance

H1 P2 No recent turf form at a comp distance 4-12 and 2-9 APV 65 cr 2.43
H2 P4 Line 1 8-30 and 5-11 APV 53 CR 4.90
H3 E7 No recent Turf form 7-15 and 3-9 APV 91 CR13.15
H5 EP3 Line 1 5-22 and 1-13 APV 98 CR 4.84
H6 NF No recent turf form 20/1 Ml 3-13 and 1-6 APV 68 CR3.75
H7 SP1 no recent turf form 4-13 and 4-13 APV 57 CR 3.56
H8 E/EP Line 1 6-11 and 5-9 APV66 CR 4.53
H9 S1 No comparable recent turf 20/1 4-19 and 3-8 APV36 CR1.93
H10 E/EP Line 1 3-9 and 3-7 APV49 CR 3.13
H11 EP4 Line 2 last first try at GP 5-16 and 2-7 APV39 CR 3.05

[pktruckdriver]

Okay, thanks, BUT... Net Speed rating, and why a 61 DTV, also I did not noticed he was the only horse with high weights.

Yet his net speed rating makess him tops, could I read something about this, or prior post, I got run to hospital, be back later, sorry.

[lone speed]

Patrick.....

Upon further reviews of Mucho Mas Mucho pps, I am most interested in the 5th paceline back...I have no qualms about going for the power line as that line looks strong especially if there are some early speedballs to set some decent quick early fractions........last paceline is already strong since he closed on a fast 24 last fraction, so the horse is in shape after the layoff...but it s hard to evaluate that last paceline in todays matchup....10 and 12 furlongs races are hard to evaluate in Sartin' s programs......

Looking forward to your Rdss readouts with those pacelines included....sometimes, I have no problems entering two or even three pacelines for a contender that I want to evaluate...

[rmath]

Bill. look at the #1 post on this thread for the 10 horse, the adj pacelines and you will see the 61 DTV that Patrick is talking about.

I want to thank everyone who responded to this thread. There were several very interesting and informative responses that I will have to pay attention to.

Again thanks to all of you.
rmath

[partsnut]

Hi Patrick,

As you know I hold you in very regard as a fellow handicapper, good friend and a very kind person.
I felt your questions are excellent and as of yet have not been intelligently addressed. The reason could very well be, that they in fact, cannot be answered.
So in this spirit I thought I might add what I feel is indicative in this type of race.

I guess one can make a case for just about any race.
I feel the story of this race is the winners back class. Unfortunately and in my opinion, there is no software that can adequately address this "Angle".
Being that after scratches this horse did come up as one of my top 4 horses and depending on how one plays, this horse might have been considered for a bet if they were tracking the impact value of this specific angle. some people do play longshots such as this if in the long run this type of horse (Angle) shows a profit.

You can see my illustrations at the following link.
https://www.box.com/shared/pan6mpvz9u