Belmont Race 8 July 3

[Bill V.]

Here is my look at Ryans race from this thread

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9875

Using Phase 1 - Entropy - Thoromation

Step 1 - Phase 1
I run the last line on every horse
and note the top 5 TPR. I also include the # 1 EPR and #1 LPR ranked horses if they are not already in the top 5 TPR.

Readouts from the last line

#3 166.5  865 L 
#8 163.0  849 E
#2 162.2
#5 160.0 
#7 157.2

My lines and contenders

H1 No line
H2 Early Line 1
H3 Press line 1
H4 Question ? No line
H5 Press Line 3
H6 Question ? No line
H7 Sus Line 2
H8 Early Line 3

Entropy

Horse  ERS     Par Med    Dream TE      TD/VD
2  SUS          970          937             962
3  SUS          957          987             944
5  SUS          985          963             973
7  SUS          950          990             954
8  SUS          940          976             908

With a low Dream Race Total and TPR I will throw out the 5

Now the 2 3 7 and 8 go into Thoromation

The first preplay is EXDC Thoromation Matches the EXDC

My bets would be 7 and 3

[Ryan.p.coli]

Bill-

Love your analysis, as always. For my reference, do you have any issue using the last line on the #3 considering it was a tandem (losing by 3.5L to #7)? In that case, should I use the same tandem line or go to a different one?

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Ryan.p.coli

Bill-

Love your analysis, as always. For my reference, do you have any issue using the last line on the #3 considering it was a tandem (losing by 3.5L to #7)? In that case, should I use the same tandem line or go to a different one?

Ryan
I am not too sharp on the tandem concept. But I think the tandem
concept applies if two or more horses come out of the same race
But here the 3 seems like a non contender in the tandem method being 4th and so many lengths back.

Actually nothing about the 3 is encouraging. except its readouts.
Its line 1 is a shaky at best (+) pace line That is only because it beat half the field.
I am not totally sure why exactly the instructions for phase 1 are to ALWAYS
rate the last line first for all the horses. But line 1 for horse 3 puts it right up there in the the readouts with horse 7
At 15/1 I hope the 3 wins and is one of the few times a horse wins with a shaky pace line .

The 7 sure has been busy with 4 races in 35 days

[Ryan.p.coli]

7 and 1 both scratched

[Ryan.p.coli]

Bill- You like the 3 & the 8 now?

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Ryan.p.coli

Bill- You like the 3 & the 8 now?

Thanks Ryan

I took a morning shift so I am working today I will see if I can rework the race

[Ryan.p.coli]

Bill-

No worries if you don't get to it. I know RDSS like the #6 and #5 if one forgives some poor recent performances.

6 is coming off a 171 day layoff and hasn't finished better than 4th in over a year (this is a class drop).

5 wasn't a threat the entire last line. I think it's reasonable to take a stand against the 6. Depending on the odds, I like the horses we discussed earlier.