'For the Lead' Guidelines - NEW Compilation

[Mitch44]

Just as a point of clarity for new members to RDSS and some old heads "you're guidelines" are your own and don't follow the guidelines of Sartin teachings.
Mitch44

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Just as a point of clarity for new members to RDSS and some old heads "you're guidelines" are your own and don't follow the guidelines of Sartin teachings.
Mitch44

There is the possibility that some elements of Sartin could be improved upon, just say'in.

[fastcharlie55]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

There is the possibility that some elements of Sartin could be improved upon, just say'in.

To learn you need an open mind to new ideas.....thank you for your input

[shoeless]

FTL

No matter what anybody says thanks again for taking the time sharing your thoughts on contender and pace line selection.

You have helped me very much

Shoeless

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by shoeless

FTL

No matter what anybody says thanks again for taking the time sharing your thoughts on contender and pace line selection.

You have helped me very much

Shoeless

Shoeless, you are certainly welcome.

[For The Lead]

While I’m at it, I would like to give Neil S the credit he is due and deserves.

Here is a guy that joined this site in September of 2007. In more than 10 years he has made just 65 postings. It appears that although he doesn’t post much himself, he certainly reads what others post. And when he reads something that sparks an interest, he follows through, giving what he decides to work on the time necessary for a full evaluation. This is apparent to me from what he wrote in a recent post. Here’s what he said in post #27 of this thread.

“The beauty of FTL's guidelines is that they provide a framework for consistent, disciplined analysis of a race. One needs patience and discipline and must bypass races with short priced horses as well as those with multiple unknown factors in order to be successful. By playing multiple tracks one gets more opportunities to locate value and the types of profitable situations that makes the guidelines work best.
From a percentage standpoint there may be more winners with other selection methods, however I find that betting older or questionable pace lines does not guarantee any greater success in locating the actual winner if you are a two horse better. It may even cloud the readouts with lines and rankings that are perhaps better looking than they should be.”

If you read this closely and compare it to what Bill Lyster has written here, you find find similarities.

Here are a couple of posts he made recently telling of how 2 $10 bets won him well over $1,500!

I have been a user of Phase I for most of the years I've been a Sartin disciple and over the last two years have used the line selection guidelines posted by For The Lead. In my results I have noticed that the bulk of the winners I've gotten in the #1 and #2 slots have been mostly low priced runners, however occasionally a beautiful long shot does come. I have been very patient targeting horses to win in either the #1 or #2 slots with morning line odds of 4-1 or higher. If both the #1 and #2 horses are 4-1 or higher I bet both to win and do a simple 2 dollar exacta box. It has been a bit of a slow start to the year, but my patience was rewarded today in the 8th race of the opening day card at Oaklawn when I registered a remarkable score to say the least.
Both of my top two contenders were clearly above 4-1 so I made 3 dollar win bets on both and boxed them in the exacta for 2 dollars. With both my win bets at 29-1 and 25-1 respectively I was already thrilled with the result but when the exacta popped at $1123.20 I was in Sartin Heaven to say the least!!! An amazing return for a 10 dollar wager netted a healthy profit of $1205.60.
As you can clearly see there was very little magic in my line selection but if one remains patient and disciplined in their line selection and wagering approach amazing things can truly happen.

Here is his rundown of the horses in the race:
#1 Far Right 15-1 - No line. Horse ran a 0 race in a similar spot last out at FG
#2 Futile 12-1. - Line 2. Last race was at 1 1/4 miles which is more than a furlong further than todays distance. Chose a line at today's distance which is a winning effort at Churchill.
#3 Sightforsoreeyes. 30-1- No line based upon FTL's guidelines
#4 Dan the Go to Man 12-1 - Line 1 a wire to wire win in a similar spot at RP
#5 Stcksstatelydude 5-1- Line 1 which is a (+) line in a similar spot at FG
#6 Goats Town 20-1. Out
#7 Royal Squeez 20-1. Out
#8 Shotgun Kowboy 6-1- Line1. Solid + race effort against similar
#9 Dazzling Gem 7-2 Line 1. Same race as #8
#10 Sonneteer 12-1 Line 1 which was a solid effort at LA. Usually don't trust LA lines but noticed some solid efforts last year at OP.
#11 Untrapped 3-1- Line 1 which was a solid effort in the Zia Park Derby
#12 Cheif Know it All 10-1- Line 1 same race as #11

Here are the TPR's for the horses getting a line and the top 4 contenders:

#2. 172.5 2
#4. 169.5
#5. 157.5
#8. 169.5
#9. 169.5
#10 177 1
#11. 171 3
#12. 170 4


Another Oaklawn Score Thanks to FTL

Oaklawn has proved to be a profitable oasis for me thus far thanks mostly to following the Guidelines of FTL. Today's 6th race at Oaklawn was the source of another solid result:

As both of my top two TPR's were 4-1 or higher I bet both to win and boxed them in the exacta. Was delighted as Cheponara scored and paid $42.80 with First Alternate running second to complete the $278.80 exacta.
I bet 3 dollars on each to win boxed for 2 dollars to receive 343 dollars for a 10 dollar investment. Following the guidelines gets great results yet again!!

Here is his rundown of the horses in this race.

1.Unidvided 6-1 - No line as only rateable line in 90 days was a 0.
2. Nucla 6-5 - Last line which was a Maiden win in the slop at FG
3. Cheponara 10-1 - Last line which was a mile win at CD
4. Caramel Cream 15-1 - No line as last line was a 0 against common opponent First Alternate.
5. Glamorized 6-1- Although you could excuse the last line as it was the first over the OP surface this meeting it was a 0 against First Alternate and Line 2 is more than 90 days old.
6. Memorial Drive 7-2 - Last line which was a Maiden win at FG
1a. Charmin Dixie 6-1 - Same situation as #5 as although last line was first over the OP surface it was a 0 against First Alternate and line 2 was too old.
7. First Alternate 5-1 - last line which was a 2nd earning it a + line.

Here are the 4 contenders and their TPR rankings:

Nucla 155.5 (3)
Cheponara 167.5 (1)
Memorial 150 (4)
First 154 (2)

Neil S., thank you for your input and I wish you continued success!

[Bill Lyster]

There are so many.

Perhaps one of the best are guidelines to identifying running styles. This is really the foundation of all race analysis IMHO. there are obvious early horses and not so obvious early horses and being able to see the 'not so obvious' will help eliminate a lot of chaos.

Perhaps one of the most underrated/misunderstood or misused screens in all of RDSS is the SEGMENTS screen. There are several races where FTL shows how this screen can be utilized to better your handicapping.

I've asked this question several times over the years, but the most common answer is 'some times they do and some times they don't'. And the question is, what happens to a presser who ran 2 back of a 44.8 when the pace is 45.4? Is he two back or leading by 1?

Well, this situation is often depicted on the SEGMENTS screen (on the right hand side), in the Incremental Matchup section where the little horses are, and invariably pressers who ran against faster paces than the early horses are shown leading or near leading at 1F. However, in most cases this graph is not depicting the reality of today's race!

In several examples backed up by race charts FTL teaches that EARLY horses are EARLY and they lead no matter what, until they cannot lead anymore. So what this does is force us to 'picture' the pace of race with the early, or best early horse leading at the 1F call. In my view this practically eliminates the graphic depiction of any non-early horses' 1F info.

Keeping in mind who is leading, you can then look at 2nd fractions of the field horses to see who has the best 2nd fraction and hope to determine who can be making up ground on the best early horse. First deal with the other early horses. If they are deficient in 1F and have 2F's that are equal to or slower than the lead early, you can discard them for win consideration and go on to assessing the rest of the runners. Even if these lagging early horses have monster 2F numbers, if they have not made it up close to a 0.0 lengths back at 2C, they will not compete because they NEED TO LEAD and cannot get there by the 1F Call. This is where line two of this post comes into play big time.

Winning pressers or sustained horses need strong 2F's to get into contention. If they are several lengths back at the 2C (left side where computed beaten lengths are shown) their win burden to overcome the early horse increases as the size of the lead at the 2C gets larger.

As I was writing this I had an idea for some research. It would be interesting to see how dedicated pressers reacted to strong first fractions by their race leaders, that is does their 2nd fraction POH get larger or smaller significantly when the pace changes. If their normal running position is 2 back, do they speed up to maintain 2 back or are they 3 or 4 back? or do they get closer to the lead? You could track the results from race charts or more current races in the PPs. This is just a note to self so I don't forget the idea.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Just as a point of clarity for new members to RDSS and some old heads "you're guidelines" are your own and don't follow the guidelines of Sartin teachings.
Mitch44

Actually, as a further point of clarity for all who may be reading this, the guidelines I use are the ORIGINAL SARTIN GUIDELINES with two additions of my own. Those two additions are the ML guideline and the 90 day guideline.

The “Original Sartin Guidelines” are the guidelines he used with his original group of truck drivers.
They are the guidelines he used when he originally intended to “contract” with just 1,000 clients and guaranteed those clients would get 63% winners using them and following his teachings.
Here is a post by Bill V.


As many readers already know, the two guidelines I added are as a result of research done on my database of millions and millions of horses and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of races. That research showed horses that fall within my two additional guidelines win at such a small frequency as to render them insignificant.

So the guidelines I use ARE SARTIN TEACHINGS.

[Mitch44]

Hi Bill,
Personally I don't believe in giving up anything going into a race in reference to percentages to the game.

I believe also that until one can obtain a 63% with two horses they should stay clear of any freelancing and adhere to the guidelines that have proven their mettle. At that point one should always be trying to improve their game, be open minded to new ideas or concepts developed by their research and testing, to hone their skills to a fine art. At that point they can become a jazz player and play that funky music at the same time knowing what guidelines or other brain farts are useful. 63% is demonstrated performance as I've seen you do Bill V.


Mitch44

[DaveEdwards]

Awesome thread. I've really appreciated reading this. Thanks to everyone that has posted.