Wagercapping - "Bill V" approach in action! - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 06-29-2009, 09:23 AM

I got this email last night regarding RDSS and the Bill V approach laid out in the RDSS tutorial section

RichieP · 06-29-2009, 09:27 AM

Here is the spreadsheet attached to that email.

Any questions/comments feel free to jump in.

Shows a sweet 50% win % betting 2 horses and a terrific 42% positive ROI.

The gentleman gave permission and encouraged me to put this up to help some of the MANY new RDSS users.

Thank you

RichieP · 06-29-2009, 11:57 AM

Just received this followup on the races shown here.

ok

tfm · 06-29-2009, 12:59 PM

These are very good results no doubt.

However, this is pretty small sample. Not doubting that it'll port over but......

Recently, I had a > 40% return on winners betting one horse per race over just more than 100 races/bets. Since then, I've had a free fall. (For a number of reasons: an incredible string of tough beats ---2nds and photo losses---; and too much exacta/double action).

While I have no doubt that one (including myself) could show such results, it would probably take a larger sample (something around 1,000 races) to hammer the point home.

I think it's time to do away with all these myths about what is and isn't possible in terms of ROI. I'm tired of reading about 5% ROI (and begging for rebates) being something to strive for.

Ted Craven · 06-29-2009, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tfm

I think it's time to do away with all these myths about what is and isn't possible in terms of ROI. I'm tired of reading about 5% ROI (and begging for rebates) being something to strive for.

Hear, hear. Doc would say, he wouldn't cross the street for less than 25% ROI (or was that 50% ?). Regardless, and allowing for hyperbole, records like this serve to drive home that it IS possible to achieve such results, first and foremost to oneself, then by inspiration, to others. It serves to highlight, as the initial writer said and elaborated on further, what to focus on, what to not get distracted by - once you have a successful analysis and wagering method.

I know that Doc received hundreds of these type of forms in his day, many showing similar or better results, but like tfm skeptically (and wisely) says, let's see how it bears up over many more cycles. Not that I have any doubts it would - IF one maintains selectivity and mental focus.

FWIW, I will provide in RDSS the record keeping tool to automate the keeping of such records, in $1, $2, $10, $20 etc normalized betting units, timestamped if you like to prove they were selected pre-race; exportable for posting anonymously (or for bragging, here). Even if no one else sees them, if you see and heed them and constantly fine-tune what they tell you (or draw inspiration from others), it's another brick in the foundation of the Methodology.

Ted

tfm · 06-29-2009, 02:54 PM

Ted

You pick a lot of winners. Many of those on this forum pick a lot of winners. Hell, even I pick a lot of winners. In fact, I just passed on the winner of the 3rd at DEL, a turf race, my specialty, at 5:1, because I was arguing a point at another forum. So much for worrying about when my next one is coming in.

However:

You're developing software, I'm contracting out my services, and the others, for the most part, have a day job.

My point is not that it can't be done over the short term OR the long term. But as an empiricist, I need to see long term evidence. Not necessarily from others but from myself. I'm presently working on that now. And, it's not about picking winners. It's all the peripheral issues that come with this: the money management, the confidence issues, etc. This game is brutal and anyone going in without the proper perspective will be in for a rude awakening.

Between this forum and Paceadvantage, I'd warrant that we probably have 99.9999999% of all the winning players in the world covered. Of course, there aren't so many of them around in the first place, so, simple math dictates that, there can't be so many of them on these forums.

I mean, let's face it, based on my projections, and betting an amount I'd be comfortable with, with a manageable number of races per day, I'd certainly make LESS per year than just about any job I presently qualify for and invested equal time and effort towards. And this is certainly the case for just about anyone else I know who's presently playing.

06-29-2009, 09:23 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Wagercapping - "Bill V" approach in action! I got this email last night regarding RDSS and the Bill V approach laid out in the RDSS tutorial section Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

06-29-2009, 11:57 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Just received this followup on the races shown here. ok Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

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06-29-2009, 12:59 PM	#4
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	These are very good results no doubt. However, this is pretty small sample. Not doubting that it'll port over but...... Recently, I had a > 40% return on winners betting one horse per race over just more than 100 races/bets. Since then, I've had a free fall. (For a number of reasons: an incredible string of tough beats ---2nds and photo losses---; and too much exacta/double action). While I have no doubt that one (including myself) could show such results, it would probably take a larger sample (something around 1,000 races) to hammer the point home. I think it's time to do away with all these myths about what is and isn't possible in terms of ROI. I'm tired of reading about 5% ROI (and begging for rebates) being something to strive for.

06-29-2009, 02:54 PM	#6
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	Ted You pick a lot of winners. Many of those on this forum pick a lot of winners. Hell, even I pick a lot of winners. In fact, I just passed on the winner of the 3rd at DEL, a turf race, my specialty, at 5:1, because I was arguing a point at another forum. So much for worrying about when my next one is coming in. However: You're developing software, I'm contracting out my services, and the others, for the most part, have a day job. My point is not that it can't be done over the short term OR the long term. But as an empiricist, I need to see long term evidence. Not necessarily from others but from myself. I'm presently working on that now. And, it's not about picking winners. It's all the peripheral issues that come with this: the money management, the confidence issues, etc. This game is brutal and anyone going in without the proper perspective will be in for a rude awakening. Between this forum and Paceadvantage, I'd warrant that we probably have 99.9999999% of all the winning players in the world covered. Of course, there aren't so many of them around in the first place, so, simple math dictates that, there can't be so many of them on these forums. I mean, let's face it, based on my projections, and betting an amount I'd be comfortable with, with a manageable number of races per day, I'd certainly make LESS per year than just about any job I presently qualify for and invested equal time and effort towards. And this is certainly the case for just about anyone else I know who's presently playing.