New Pace performance request

[BJennet]

I know that a number of people here have been using New Pace on various tracks, and some, like Mike Sal, have been posting results for some of them. I was wondering if anyone else has compiled any NP performance stats based on samples of at least 200 races at any individual tracks.

It seems to me, from what I've seen so far, that there's relatively little deviation from the 73-74% average for all NP winners at most tracks, but I believe that there may be some that deviate more widely from this average, and am interested in knowing which these are. For instance, Mike recently posted a sample of 100 races from PARX, with only 64 NP winners, which I believe would also be true for a larger sample.

For what I'm looking into right now, I'd be interested to know if there's anyone observing success for NP (over 74% winners) at any of the following tracks: HAW, FG, AP, OP, LRL, SUF, or RP.

BTW, I'm looking only for samples including the basic four NP contenders with no filters or other factors added.

Thanks for any help.

Cheers,

B. Jennet

[rmath]

I only have 178 races at AQU so far. These are the ones that I ran for the Pic 4 contest, so there are a lot of Mdn. races with many first timers in them.
NP only 149/178 wins .837
103 /178 exactas .579

I hope this is what you want. I only keep win and place records and only the win payoffs. I am not interested in the exactas as I only bet to win or win & place if the odds are high enough. These %s are a little higher than at other tracks. Aqu appears to be an exceptionally favorable track to the NP numbers.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by rmath

I only have 178 races at AQU so far. These are the ones that I ran for the Pic 4 contest, so there are a lot of Mdn. races with many first timers in them.
NP only 149/178 wins .837
103 /178 exactas .579

I hope this is what you want. I only keep win and place records and only the win payoffs. I am not interested in the exactas as I only bet to win or win & place if the odds are high enough. These %s are a little higher than at other tracks. Aqu appears to be an exceptionally favorable track to the NP numbers.

Hi Rich,

Thanks very much, this is exactly what I was looking for, and the inclusion of maidens or races with FTS is irrelevant. I think this should be useful to any paceandcap clients who are reading this. BTW, have to say that I'm surprised by the result, because I'm trying to develop a theory that would explain NP performance, and these AQU stats would contradict it. Back to the drawing board!

Cheers,

B Jennet

[rmath]

Updated Aqu NP,
196 races
165 wins .842
114 exactas .582
I will keep you posted if you still need this info.
rmath

[mikesal57]

BJ...your going to find a hard time getting results from other tracks here on New Pace
besides Pino and Rich , I have tried to draw out NP users here and at Pace Advantage with not much luck..
Either there is no advantage or they are holding out on how they use it..
Just recently Dorianmode has joined in and shows us how he uses it as a "tool" in his handicapping approach.

In post #73, in my thread, I gave some results at other tracks ...comments?
Mike


P.S. - Even its creator is a no-show

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

BJ...your going to find a hard time getting results from other tracks here on New Pace
besides Pino and Rich , I have tried to draw out NP users here and at Pace Advantage with not much luck..
Either there is no advantage or they are holding out on how they use it..
Just recently Dorianmode has joined in and shows us how he uses it as a "tool" in his handicapping approach.

In post #73, in my thread, I gave some results at other tracks ...comments?
Mike


P.S. - Even its creator is a no-show

Hi Mike,

I think Ted was a bit overly optimistic that there would be much research done on this product. NP has been out for nearly a year now - long enough for most users to realize that it's going to lose money under most conditions, and is basically a niche product. It's possible that a few beside Pino and yourself have found some of these, but as I've said, I think these are more likely to be track-type and clas- specific, rather than applying only to individual tracks. NP was designed as a one-size-fits-all product, often to its detriment, but it also means that what works at one track should work at similar tracks.

BTW, I did comment on your race-summary post #73, if you want to take a look. Not to repeat everything, but if you continue to want to find value in win-betting NP, set your minimum bet no lower than 10-1, and include all above that level (or whatever you choose as an upper limit), and then recalculate and see if it can get into the black. As I said, I think exotic betting looks much more promising.

Since the posting on this subject is, as you say, barely existent, I'll try to PM you when I have more time.

BTW, please don't take anything Dave says about the profit potential of his products seriously.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by rmath

Updated Aqu NP,
196 races
165 wins .842
114 exactas .582
I will keep you posted if you still need this info.
rmath

Hi Rich,

Thanks for this update, but I think an update every one or two hundred races would be sufficient. My feeling is that the variance of NP's intra-track hit rate, as opposed to the track-to-track varianceof its hit-rate is low enough that even 200 races is providing a good picture of its performance.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[Dave Schwartz]

Huh?

[mikesal57]

just a joke Dave....

I would like the up date to just be within New Pace and not using any outside strategies

[Dave Schwartz]

Considering the hostility I am receiving here, I guess I missed the joke.