Wood Memorial - 4/9/16

[GeneRayburn]

Some outside the box handicapping.

I'm really intrigued by Dalmore in this race. The first thing that got my attention was breaking his maiden at first dirt route 15 days ago and they ship all the way across the country for a Derby points prep race.

Instead of a tandem race analysis, I did a "tandem track" analysis with Cupid.

Fractions of Cupid's Maiden breaking 1/16 race at SA before trouncing the Rebel field and lengths behind

Fractions - ____23.8__48.6__1:13__1:43.6
Lengths back - __2____2____1.5_____0

Now Dalmore's

Fractions - ____23.8__48.4__1:12.8__1:43.2
Lengths back - _1.5____1____1.5______0

Very, very similar. Now Cupid earned a BRIS speed rating of 97 while Dalmore had a 93, so BRIS is saying that Cupid's track was quite a bit slower. Cupid was the 1-1 favorite of 7 in his race and Dalmore was 6-1 in a 6 horse field, so he wasn't a superior looking horse in that race. If Baffert was making this move with this kind of horse, he would get a lot of betting interest at the window.

A negative is that Desormeaux didn't make the trip to ride him, but stayed in Cali. to ride Exaggerator.



As far as a pace scenario goes, I have the early break lining up like this

6,8
1
7,4
5,2
3

The concern here is that they let Matt King Coal have the lead without pressure. Being that he was 3 and 2.5 lengths ahead at the pace call in his last two races, I'm going to assume he is one of those horses that "applies his own" pressure. I can envision Jose yanking on the reins trying to slow/conserve him down the backstretch. (I call that ride the instant kiss of death for a lone front runner.)

8 Outwork was unable to hold on to a lead on what appears to be a slowish? early pace, but he is a talented horse and could improve as this is only his 4th out. I will bet against at the low odds.

That leaves Shagaf who it appears the race sets up for, but as with 8 odds are going to be too low and I don't like how slow he finished his last two races.

That leaves me with who should be able to get into a position he is comfortable with while not having to burn up too much energy. A big concern is that he could get stuck wide around the first turn outside of the 1, 2, 4, 5 who all seem to like the same spot 2 to 3 lengths back in the pack early. But with the odds I'm likely to get, I'll take that shot. And if he is bet down, I'll bet double.

[lone speed]

At Aqueduct

[lone speed]

My two cents:

The "big horse" in this race is Outwork, hands down...win or lose.. Pletcher might instruct the jockey to take the lead behind Tale of S"avall and to force a faster early pace in the Wood.

Dalmore has the fastest 3rd fraction from its maiden race but it was against a 6 furlong pace of 112.80 on a deeper Santa Anita dirt course after the track had made preparations ahead of "El Nino" this past winter. Dalmore's 30.20 last fractions will be negated by a faster early pace in today's match-up.

Outwork's last race was very impressive as it was its first route race off the layoff and Outwork burned the second fraction in 23.60. I believe that this second fraction move is one of the top fractions so far from this year's Derby contenders.




Secondary contenders: I might look at Flexibility as he did finished second to Mohaymen who got squashed by Nyquist in the Florida Derby; and I will include Dalmore from way off the pace.

Good skills

[GeneRayburn]

I did good at picking the last place finisher. Got on the wrong California shipper. Good call on Outwork. I was trying to beat him. Sometimes you can't beat the talent.

[mowens33]

GeneRayburn, loved the thought process! Nothing wrong with trying to beat the favorite!!

Mike