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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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12-28-2018, 09:48 AM | #1 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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GP10 28Dec18
My initial interest in this race was because my friend Don E (aka the tazzerbobo) owns #10 Rumbago. For some, Rumbago would be an immediate toss because he's 20-1 ML. However, this is a big field of chronic losers and Rumbago is lightly raced with 5 ITM finishes in 8 races. He also has 2 turf wins at GP. He's returning in 12 days after a poor showing on dirt and when I line through his two dirt starts, I see that he's 4 for 6 ITM on grass. Now my interest is piqued.
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12-28-2018, 10:16 AM | #2 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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There are certainly negatives which is why he's 20-1. His best races have been when he's on the lead and he's breaking from post position 10. Not good. However, most of the early speed in this race will scratch out as "Also Eligibles," leaving just the #7 who is an Early on turf. Those two should clear the field and be on the lead down the backstretch. At 12-1, #7 is also lightly raced and returning in 22 days after a credible 4th place finish in a 12-horse field on GP's turf. Can one of them hang on and win? The #11 (4-1) also interests me. He's a Sustained with a good late kick who seems to have found a home on turf. The #12, #9 and #3 are dismal with a combined record of 3 for 61.
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12-28-2018, 10:26 AM | #3 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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So, the plan is to make small win bets on #7 and #10 if they have double-digits odds at post; play a small exacta box with #7, #10, and #11; and play a bigger exacta #11 over #7 and #10 and backwheel it. If one of my Earlies win, I don't think the other will run second, but it could happen so that's why I'll box them.
Of course, they could all run out of the money, too. |
12-28-2018, 11:35 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,305
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Gp r10
Thanks for posting this race Mick. Me I like the Dec 6 Tandem race. The 1-5-6-7 come out of this race. A ton of speed even with the scratches. I think the 7 is going to get caught up in the speed dual. So I like 5-6. And box a 1-5-6 ex. box as the 1 is ML 20/1.
Bob |
12-28-2018, 05:21 PM | #5 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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The #10 went off at 45-1 and the #7 at 32-1. They broke well, saved ground around the clubhouse turn and followed #1 down the backstretch. The #7 made a move on the turn, had a short lead at the head of the stretch and didn't give it up until the last furlong. Short of cashing a ticket, that's about all I could ask from those two longshots. My third horse, #11 (2-1), showed a nice turn of foot late and won, cruising to the wire.
That was fun and I appreciated Bob's comments. He was right in that the pace was a bit too fast for my Earlies. After 4 furlongs, the leader was :47 and change and I needed something more like :48 and a few ticks. |
12-28-2018, 08:34 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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GP race
Mick, did you notice that the 11 was the only horse that had all 4 numbers.
While I do not play Turf races this horse should win better than 50 % of the time. Rmath |
12-29-2018, 08:40 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,274
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The 4 numbers refer to PL,BPP,CSR,VDC ranks on the RX screen. Horse that have a ranking in all 4 factors are a prime win horses. In the last 100 races I capped 66 were won by a horse with all 4 numbers. Another 13 were won by horses with 3 numbers.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify Last edited by Lt1; 12-29-2018 at 08:56 AM. |
12-29-2018, 09:31 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Thanks
Thanks LT1.
I left out which ratings I was refering to , just to see if anyone was curious enough to ask. rmath |
12-29-2018, 09:35 AM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Mick, It is always nice to see my efforts were not in vain.
You always did pay close attention to what ever we were discussing. HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone. Rmath |
12-29-2018, 09:46 AM | #10 | |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Quote:
And for the new members who don't know Richard, he's something special. Doc Sartin wrote him multiple times in the Follow Ups with his W-2Gs published. |
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