Step by Step 11.0 race

[admin]

This is my step by step look how I did this
weeks Friday night race of the week 8/25 race 7 Del Mar
I would like to say that there are no 100% rules
with the methodology.,Only guidelines and lately as per Doc's
suggestion ,Looking at a little more than just numbers
a little bit of intuition really helps

The race was 11 furlongs for Fillies and Mares 3 and Up
Many of the horses never ran any race close to this distance
I based much of my feeling on horse # 7 which won at 10
furlongs two races back with a raw final time of 200.2
Spec adjusted this to 211.1. I decided to use 10 furlongs
as the distance of the race.

The first step I did was the APV - Class Ratings
I posted this in the race of the week area I will repeat them here
I left out horse 8 but it was very weak 21.8% and 0.39
I added my notes to each horse they were vital in this race

[admin]

Oh kay From the APV-CR The 7 is the key in this race
at 7/5 ML and the class of the field I used line 2 a win at 10 furlongs in a
$150,000 Grade 2 race at hollywood Todays purse is $85,000

[admin]

This is a look at horse 7 with the original lines
shown after hitting the F2 button
Look at line 2 the final time was 200.2 on the EQulized line on top it became 211.1

[admin]

The 2nd favorite was the Entry The solid #1 looks good on APV and CR
so I will go to the 4th line. I'm looking at this race as 10 furlongs
and the purse of line 2 is $200.000 so I will give # 1 a break and us line 4
its adjusted final time is 213.1 It won its race Line 4 with a raw time of 201.2
close to the 7's 200.2

[admin]

This one rates well on the APV-CR so I will give it a line.
Line 3 from 9.0 furlongs looks like the race to use
with a final adjusted time of 213.3
Why not line 1? a win at 11 furlongs ?
the adjusted final time was 214.8
Plus I am using 10 furlongs as the distance

[admin]

A non contender with a very poor APV CR

[racer100]

Originally Posted by admin

This is my step by step look how I did this
weeks Friday night race of the week 8/25 race 7 Del Mar
I would like to say that there are no 100% rules
with the methodology.,Only guidelines and lately as per Doc's
suggestion ,Looking at a little more than just numbers
a little bit of intuition really helps

The race was 11 furlongs for Fillies and Mares 3 and Up
Many of the horses never ran any race close to this distance
I based much of my feeling on horse # 7 which won at 10
furlongs two races back with a raw final time of 200.2
Spec adjusted this to 211.1. I decided to use 10 furlongs
as the distance of the race.

The first step I did was the APV - Class Ratings
I posted this in the race of the week area I will repeat them here
I left out horse 8 but it was very weak 21.8% and 0.39
I added my notes to each horse they were vital in this race

Hello everyone,
I am new to this forum and a recent user of Spec 1.60 but I catch up fast. Bill, thanks for doing such diligent work on posting the analysis for this race. It is something we can all learn from. It seems to me that the key to your analysis here is the initial APV class rating. Can you elaborate in few words the rules that you use in arriving at this class rating under Spec 1.60? Is this a separate program that is available? or was it done by hand by you? Thanks in advance for your help.

[admin]

Hi Racer100

I use an old Sartin hand entry program called EXDC
Most of the older programs,as far as I can tell
had this same feature to calculate the APV and Class ratings

I use this program
Let me show you how I used it for a horse using Spec160 and EXDC
This horse won on Saturday. I listed it as
APV. 101.0
CR. 0.70

My attachment will map out were I look for the information
I hand enter into EXDC

I use these numbers a guide to the ability of a horse
against the others in the race not as a wagering factor
what I mean is
Superstone has an APV of 101.0% to me this means in its
most current races Its been running at this level - 100% is equal

But Its Class Rating is only 0.70
This tells me that its not doing that well in those races.
This raised a red flag for me as ,for me usually my winners
rate over .90 in CR
I probably don't want to give this horse too
much help. I used its last line with its highest
ever speed rating of 84 But if it were line 3 I would use
its last line unless it had an excuse

Here is my mapped out attachment
any questions are welcome I will try to explian my method

[shoeless]

Bill,Nice job on that,STAY WARM.Jeff

[racer100]

Bill, thanks for the very clear depiction on your selection process. I googled EXDC and found that it was posted as a zip file along with Thoromation but the link did not work anymore. Would you be kind enough to zip it up and post it here for download or point me somewhere where I can pick it up?
As a contribution to this board I found something very interesting that improves my selection win %. DRF recently introduced as a beta the Moss Pace Figures in addition to the Beyer numbers. I always found Beyers figures to be useless, but I gave a shot to the Moss Pace Figures which I use to select the best PP for either Spec 1.60 or Speed Handicapper 5.0 (Charles Carroll). Selecting the best pace line to use turned things around for me from hitting 30% wins (win horse) to about 75%. So far I have done only about 40 recent races at many tracks since the Moss Pace figures have recently been available but to me this looks impressive. I wonder if it will be consistent or will drop to 30% again. I strongly believe though that the selection of the most appropriate PP to represent the horse is crucial. It appears to me that selecting the PP by the best pace line is the way to go so far. Using Speed Handicapper 5.0 that gives the Carroll speed figures seems to work really well on the selected PP by Moss Pace to pick the win horse. However the trifecta is not necessarily in the top 5. Selector 1.60 picks less winners but its trifecta is in the top 5 most of the time with the Moss paceline selection. Anyway just food for thought...please post your impressions on how we can improve on this. Perhaps I should start a new thread on this. Thanks for your help.

Originally Posted by admin

Hi Racer100

I use an old Sartin hand entry program called EXDC
Most of the older programs,as far as I can tell
had this same feature to calculate the APV and Class ratings

I use this program
Let me show you how I used it for a horse using Spec160 and EXDC
This horse won on Saturday. I listed it as
APV. 101.0
CR. 0.70

My attachment will map out were I look for the information
I hand enter into EXDC

I use these numbers a guide to the ability of a horse
against the others in the race not as a wagering factor
what I mean is
Superstone has an APV of 101.0% to me this means in its
most current races Its been running at this level - 100% is equal

But Its Class Rating is only 0.70
This tells me that its not doing that well in those races.
This raised a red flag for me as ,for me usually my winners
rate over .90 in CR
I probably don't want to give this horse too
much help. I used its last line with its highest
ever speed rating of 84 But if it were line 3 I would use
its last line unless it had an excuse

Here is my mapped out attachment
any questions are welcome I will try to explian my method