Screen Shots For r9 1-11 ex

[Lt1]

Ok let's try this again



Ok the results were 10-7-4-9
Checking our screen shots we see the winner #10[10.80] tiers 4th on bl/bl and 3rd on rx. Let's do an analysis to see if we can move the 10 up on bl/bl.
#7 Recency Defect %med too late.
#9 no defects ok%med
#4 Recency defect, str loss, DSR, Failed last
#10 Recency defect ok %med.
Pretty easy call here the 4 gets the downgrade and the 10 moved to 3rd so now 3rd both screens and a use in the ex.
Tim

[darmar]

Excellent play today Tim glad to see you are doing all the heavy lifting right now.
I will.be back on Saturday ( hopefully)
Darryl

[Lt1]

Ok wingman
Obi

[57viking]

Tim, do you consider any of the defects higher than others?

[Lt1]

The declining form defect is the one I consider the most serious followed by str loss and running line defects. The recency defect is one that requires some lead way. I have expanded Scotts' old 28 days to 45 simply because horses at any level don't run as often as in the past. I also tend to be a little more lenient with horses trained by the better trainers[still count the defect]. These folks have access to farms[which don't report w/os] and they know their horses. I scan the pps to see if the horse has done well off lo.
Tim

[Lt1]

Although not a defect keep an eye out for declining speed ratings with no excuses involved. This is a very subtle way of seeing a horse that maybe going off form. Conversely improving speed ratings usually indicate a horse rounding to form.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Tim,

I'm a little confused about recency defect, especially the 10 who won its last race 23 days ago? Is it because there have been no works.

[Lt1]

That's correct Bill. A 4f work is needed within a 21 day period. Again since Moscow is a good trn I note the defect but don't worry about that much. I guess if one wants they can establish their own time frame to require a w/o since last race.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Tim,

In April 2020 you and Mick combined to boil down the Scott form factors and at the end you added the results of some of your studies. In one of the exchanges above you mentioned ("I have expanded Scotts' old 28 days to 45 simply because horses at any level don't run as often as in the past.").

In the first form factor, 'recent action' there is only one mention of a 28 day period, but several of the qualification standards reference a 21 day layoff and I was wondering if you expanded those durations as well based on your current handicapping observations, to encompass the 45 day period mentioned earlier in this post? If you don't have the file handy I can forward it to you.

Thanks,

Bill

[Lt1]

Hi Bill. That's the one I expanded to 45 days. What I do now is up to 21 days since last race no work out needed. Between 22 & 45 days I demand that the horse show a 4f work within the last 15 days. If none showing the it gets the zero. It's a pretty liberal standard so horses getting a zero here are pretty suspect. The same goes for running line and str loss. If the horse has run within the last 45 days I rate that line[if applicable ie surface dist etc]. After 45 days I usually accept a 4f w/o with the last 15 days as ok also. In other words I want to see some activity. Most good trainers horses will meet this standard.
Tim