New Survey - Pace and Cap

Lt1 · 10-26-2024, 12:14 PM

During the last Zoom meeting I mentioned that when Profit Line & Bris Prime Power had the same top 3 horse[ regardless of rank] one of those 3 won 84 of 100 races. Since Ted expressed interest in this I decided to run another 100 race test, My settings were 100% DTV with the rest being the same as being used by testers of this new approach. I did not limit myself to the best of the last 3 comparable surface and dist[though in many cases this was the line selected]. My intent was to give each contender its' best chance to win[which I always do]and as pointed out by Brohamer at Sar and Jorgesen and Palermo at the 93 Vegas seminar. The tracks used were Parx, MTH,LRL,DEL, TDN & MVR. No 2 yr old races or mdn races with FTS were included. I did all other mdn races all the way up to GI races. The avg field size was 7. Here are the results
100 races
Wins by one of the top 3 81
So in the last 200 races I have surveyed 165 races[82.5%] were won by one of the top 3 horses. To me this is a very effective stat which maybe of use in the new approach. Hopefully that will be the case.
Tim

shoeless · 10-26-2024, 06:10 PM

Thank You Tim for sharing this

Jeff

Lt1 · 10-26-2024, 11:21 PM

You are welcome Jeff.
Tim

shoeless · 10-31-2024, 04:48 PM

Tim

Knowing this makes it a lot easier as only have to enter 3 horses
in RDSS.

Worked in 1st race at Laurel on turf 8.00 winner

Thanks Again
Jeff

Lt1 · 11-01-2024, 03:08 PM

Jeff I didn't say not to look at the other contenders. Glad you hit,
.Tim

shoeless · 11-02-2024, 07:32 AM

Tim

I know thanks

Jeff

shoeless · 11-28-2024, 11:15 AM

This continues to do well Wednesday in 9th at Parx it had the 10-1
winner and the 2nd place horse in the top 3 for a $60.00 ex

When you put the horses in leverage pace it only had 2 blue arrows
horses the 9 and 1 which were the two that came in. Also the same for
NP.

Thanks again Tim

Jeff

Lt1 · 11-28-2024, 12:24 PM

You are welcome Jeff. I'm positive the % of winners in those top 3 will range between 80 & 85%.
Tim

shoeless · 11-29-2024, 12:27 PM

Much appreciated Tim

Jeff

shoeless · 12-02-2024, 05:35 PM

Tim

You may want to check 2 of 3, today at Parx it was
2 of 2 in the 6 th and 9th. The one in the 6th race paid 18.80.

Jeff

10-26-2024, 12:14 PM	#1
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,327	New Survey During the last Zoom meeting I mentioned that when Profit Line & Bris Prime Power had the same top 3 horse[ regardless of rank] one of those 3 won 84 of 100 races. Since Ted expressed interest in this I decided to run another 100 race test, My settings were 100% DTV with the rest being the same as being used by testers of this new approach. I did not limit myself to the best of the last 3 comparable surface and dist[though in many cases this was the line selected]. My intent was to give each contender its' best chance to win[which I always do]and as pointed out by Brohamer at Sar and Jorgesen and Palermo at the 93 Vegas seminar. The tracks used were Parx, MTH,LRL,DEL, TDN & MVR. No 2 yr old races or mdn races with FTS were included. I did all other mdn races all the way up to GI races. The avg field size was 7. Here are the results 100 races Wins by one of the top 3 81 So in the last 200 races I have surveyed 165 races[82.5%] were won by one of the top 3 horses. To me this is a very effective stat which maybe of use in the new approach. Hopefully that will be the case. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

10-26-2024, 11:21 PM	#3
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,327	You are welcome Jeff. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

11-01-2024, 03:08 PM	#5
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,327	Jeff I didn't say not to look at the other contenders. Glad you hit, .Tim __________________ Trust but verify

11-28-2024, 12:24 PM	#8
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,327	You are welcome Jeff. I'm positive the % of winners in those top 3 will range between 80 & 85%. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

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10-26-2024, 06:10 PM	#2
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,586	Thank You Tim for sharing this Jeff

10-31-2024, 04:48 PM	#4
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,586	Tim Knowing this makes it a lot easier as only have to enter 3 horses in RDSS. Worked in 1st race at Laurel on turf 8.00 winner Thanks Again Jeff

11-02-2024, 07:32 AM	#6
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,586	Tim I know thanks Jeff

11-28-2024, 11:15 AM	#7
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,586	This continues to do well Wednesday in 9th at Parx it had the 10-1 winner and the 2nd place horse in the top 3 for a $60.00 ex When you put the horses in leverage pace it only had 2 blue arrows horses the 9 and 1 which were the two that came in. Also the same for NP. Thanks again Tim Jeff

11-29-2024, 12:27 PM	#9
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,586	Much appreciated Tim Jeff

12-02-2024, 05:35 PM	#10
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,586	Tim You may want to check 2 of 3, today at Parx it was 2 of 2 in the 6 th and 9th. The one in the 6th race paid 18.80. Jeff