Once we have the 5 contenders and the 3 arrow horses, where do we go from here?

[kahunab]

Jake commented and asks the question:
So, let’s what might be the next steps here?

Handicapping for me reduces down to position and energy. The mechanics are the Sartin factors. RDSS is a great set of tools that allow you to sample both position and energy accurately, as long as your pace-line selection is appropriate. This isn’t rocket science, even if it sounds like it at times, but does lend itself to some rigorous logical inference. What you sample (factors) and when you sample (fractions) strongly matter. In fact, that provides the framework to envision likely matchups.

So, my questions which I have attempted to get answered by you, originate from those above premises. The first part of Leverage Pace is brilliant, for handicapping ease, while the latter half of Leverage Pace seems badly ill-purposed to me; my reasons for saying this were stated in my last posts.


I would re-phrase the question to: Now that you have 5 contenders and 3 arrow horses what is next in the process? Here is where things get a bit murky in my mind. The big task is to figure out what is the pace scenario and which of our key horses benefits. (I hope I am understanding this correctly. OLD brain you know!)
From my point of view, the answer lies in pattern recognition. I wish there was a marker that popped up and said, “Key this one!” What I have learned is to look in several screens and find a pattern that suggest a good play.
I chose a couple from today that demonstrate what I mean. We can examine other patterns in the future if you like.
Here are two races from Finger Lakes today. Lets look at all the screens.
First the Leverage Pace Screen. We note the 2 horse is marked with an EPR that says he should get the lead. We have 19 Quirin Speed points which indicate a late race. Where is the rest of the early pressure coming from? The 2 has 8 of the 19 points. It doesn’t look like a heavy pressure race from the surface. The 2 is very strong. Look at his 4-score advantage as well as his RX3 advantage.



The BL/BL screen also indicates the 2 will get the lead. I love his #1FW and FX. His balance score indicates that his energy expenditure matches the other horses in the field.

Now we look at the Segments screen. Notice the Beaten lengths in the first fraction. What a huge advantage.



Now the New Pace screen. When you look at this screen you note that even though there are 19 early speed points, 8 of the early speed points come from a horse that can’t compete. His history says he will be slow. He is on the bottom of the graph. With every other horse near the top being a late rated horse, I pick the 2 horse as my key.



The results, how did it run?

As we can see, it ran just like we expected. The 2 and the 6 broke from the gate and by the 2nd call the 6 horse had blown up and was 5 lengths behind. He was to slow to put the pressure on the 2. A presser closed to get 2nd , he was 9 lengths off at the wire.



Can you see the pattern here over several screens? I hope you noticed that I did not get too precise.

[kahunab]

Let's look at another one which is rather similar but just a bit different. We have 15 Quirin Speed points which would indicate a Neutral race, but is it? Of our 5 win candidates, the 3 has 7 early speed points nobody else is close. He also has the best 4-Score and 2nd RX3. Even though he is not an arrow horse, his Leverage Pace score is close and I would consider him as the Key. If not him I would probably go contra energy with the 5. That is my original premise.



Again here we see the 3 as the #1Early, 1,2 in FW and FX. My 5 horse has good scores across and is the #1 NP Late horse. Both horses have good balance with energy expenditure.



Now the segments screen. Notice again the huge 1st fraction advantage. My 5 looks ok but I am leaning more toward the 3. His pattern looks strong to me.



Now the New Pace screen. We have a E7 at the top of the speed graph. He has a 71% Accumulation score which indicates he can get the lead. The 6 horse is a S1 which means he will be back a ways but probably close with some speed. He certainly is not a Early horse. The horse with the 2nd most early speed points is the 7 with 5 ESP and he doesn’t look fast enough to keep up. We basically have a lone Early scenario. Lets look at how it ran.



So our 3 broke as we expected and wired the field. Our arrow horse the 5 ran 2nd and we would have been ok with naming him the key horse. The 6 horse that New Pace called Early but was really late, ie was 8th at the 1st call, but was the 2nd fastest horse finished 3rd.



I hope you see what I mean by pattern recognition. I try not to get number blind and get into my mathematical bent. I.E., he is two points stronger here, has 4% better energy here, etc. You all know what I mean. As a friend of mine said, “We get into measuring with a micrometer and a horse race is cutting with a chain saw.”

Happy Handicapping! We can look at more patterns down the road.

Dick

[Lt1]

Dick thanks for sharing these 2 races. I also played FL today and if I may be so bold I would like to point out a few other things folks that use the 4 number approach[like me] should have picked up As a quick review to qualify as a key a horse must rank 1-1 1-2 or 2-1 under either VDC-CSR or PL & BPP. In R1 the #2 & #5 would have been our key horse contenders with the #2 being the pick since its' 1=1 ranks are on the PL & BPP side while the #5s 1 &2 ranks are on the VDC & CSR. Richies' numerous studies indicated that PL &BPP side was the stronger of the 2 sides therefore the 2 becomes the key. In R5 the 1 &3 are the key horse contenders with the 3 being the choice since its 1=1 is on the PL=BPP side while the 1s #s are in VDC & CSR. So as you point out there are patterns that stand out to help arrive at our key horse selection.
Tim

[Jake]

If I might join in here, this is all good stuff. Thanks to both for posting your reasoning in these example races. Nice to follow along. Thanks, Dick!

[kahunab]

Here is an interesting race from the Breeders Cup Friday races. I admit up front that I did not play this race because of the 5 Foreign horses and a couple of other reasons I will point out as we go through. First we note the best 4-Score horse is the 10. He has the best R3 score. He is the #1 LPR horse and the #1 CPR horse. He is looking more and more like our Key horse. We note the 21 Quirin Speed Points suggesting this might be a late race. Is there Early pressure? The most Early behavioral horse is the 6 with E8 meaning he loves to be on the lead, next we have the 12 who is a P7 meaning he is a presser who likes to be up close. The 5 is an EP6 meaning he will be up close and behaviorally will take the lead if he can get it. Our arrow horse the 10 is an EP5 and will be there with the 5. All the 5 Foreign horses look to be sustained late runners. Note also that there are only 3 horses with complete 4-Scores. The presence of 5 Foreign horses could affect that but in normal races complete 4-Scores are better than only 1,2 or 3 parts of the 4-Score. Right, Tim?



We note on the BL/BL screen that our 10 horse has great energy balance is 4 meaning that his E/EP is number 3 and his L/EP is number 1 for a total of 4 which means he distributes his energy perfectly for this race. Foreign horses excepted. Note also how his late scores support his late run.



Here on the Segments screen I note the one negative for our 10 horse. It appears that he is 15.5 lengths back in the first call. Usually, horses that fall more than 10 lengths back in the first fraction can’t recover enough to win. Not also that the 11 can run a very powerful 1st fraction and the 6 horse should be about 6 lengths back. Early horse who can’t get the lead are almost always in trouble. There are questions about most of our contenders. The 10 still looks the strongest to me. With his close up front running style and 5 early speed points and great close I would still make him my Key horse.



Here is the point of this whole dialogue. On the New Pace screen, we observe when considering the totality of the horses past performances all the speed is late, including the Foreign horses. All the fast horses are late, including the Foreign horses. The 9 is the favorite and Foreign. 2nd and 3rd speed horses are the 1 and 4. They are both late. I don’t have a ton of data, but my anecdotal data says this is a fair way to evaluate Foreign horses.



How did our evaluation do?
Our Key horse won! He was up close and closed it down in the stretch as we predicted. The 1 came from way back in a huge late run. The 4 also was way back and closed for 3rd. The 5 horse another EP6 ran up close and faded a bit in the stretch. Our 11 horse with the monster 1st fraction ran on the lead early and blew up as we expected with all the speed being late.



I hope this gives you some ideas. I thought the race had some very instructive ideas. I just wish I had bet the Key horse with the fastest 3 lates and my other two arrow horses. But with too many questions I just watched. Rats!