TAX Day Longshot play

[kahunab]

The 4th race at Tampa on Tax Day had some very interesting points to observe. As we look at the Leverage pace screen we note that we have pretty good agreement with the PL,BPP and RX3 scores. So I feel confident we have good contenders. Note the secondary contender with the red arrow pointing to the 4 horses CSR. Since CSR is a rating of the last 4 lines, I use it as a rating of is the horse ready to run. The top 5 CSR horses do amazingly well. Could we have a Werpy Long Shot here?



Now it gets interesting! Note the 4,5, and 6 all meet the criteria for a Long Shot play. They are secondary contenders or non-contenders who gain ground in every segment. Finish well in the TS-F3 panel and have a VDC of less than 4.The question is which one is ready to run? Since these rankings are based on one line, let's use a multiple line rating to separate. I think we can use CSR as a final separator for the answer to that question.



It looks like on the BL/BL screen and the Primary screen we can examine the CSR scores, in this field of 10 the 5 is rated 10th, the 6 is rated 6th and the 4 is rated 4th. You can also check the differences between their scores on the Primary screen below. The 4 is only 2.5 lower than the best while the 6 is 5.3 and the 5 is 10.8 off. For these reasons I chose to Key the 7 with the 2,3,4,9 in a trifecta play. Note the 1 horse who is originally a contender has a CSR rank of 7th and 6.8 units behind the best ranked 2. (One can open the horses PP page and click on CSR to get a new ranking if there is a problem with the ranking. I did not do that for this exercise but if you click on the 7’s CSR he will become #1 in rank.)





We can see below that the 5 and 6 were never a threat but the 4 ran very well as our long shot. Our Key and other contenders ran as predicted. In fact, RDSS gave us the top 5 finishers and a very nice $0.50 trifecta.

[darmar]

Really nice layout and explanation on the non contenders in this race Dick.
Many good points that can be the difference in making a profitable play
Thanks Darryl

[kahunab]

Thanks, Darryl. I am glad it was helpful.

Dick

[moffett]

Been a member for several years but just now taking a deeper dive into RDSS.
Appreciate all your efforts and explanations as well as those of several other contributors.

[dadams6357]

Beautiful explanation Dick.
Details amazing.
Another lesson well learned.
Much thanks for what you do.
Don

[dadams6357]

Dick
Just curious on the POF screen did the 4 horse show anything.
Or no rankings across the board.
Thanks
Don

[kahunab]

Thanks, Don, I am glad it was clear and helped.

When you refer to the POF screen I am assuming you mean the Velocity-POH.

Here it is:



Is that what you are looking for?

Dick

[dadams6357]

Dick
Thanks for feedback.
Appreciate it.
Don

[ignacio todoberto bernal]

Thanks Dick!!!!!!
ignacio