The hard way

[froggy]

Here's a race I won (the hard way).

[froggy]

I went back for several days and got the %med of all the winners of tonights distances. Then I threw out the highest and the lowest and them averaged them out.
For 5.5f the magic number was 69.28 with 68.80 low and 69.53 high.

[froggy]

Three horses came within the parameters.
My reason for doing it with this race was because only one horse measured 169.11 in tot energy and 4 others were within .67 of each other.
Which one would be my second choice?
Then when I started to review %med the high energy horse didn't fit,
but three others did and with nice odds of 3/1, 9/2, and 18/1.
So I dutched them for $2, $3, and $5.
6, 8, 10
I crossed my fingers and waited.

None of the top 3 program horses came in

The winner #8 paid $36.60

Froggy

PS:
I wonder where I learned how to do that.

[admin]

Hi Froggy


Just to try something I entered your lines and wanted to see
what BLBL/VDC came up with
results =nothing

Then I did the race myself with my lines and
this is my BLBL/VDC

The winner # 8 is not looking to well
I don't think I would have won

The APV and Class numbers for this race were pretty close
so my win bets based on these readouts would have been
after hiding the 8 , would have been 7 and 1

[froggy]

Bill,

You are right things were relatively close.
And when things are close it seems ranking has little meaning.For me it seemed the only decider was the % med and of course it helped to cross my fingers.

I thought either the 6 or the 10 would win, but then the 8 came on strong.

As for using line 3 for the 1,
I usually don't go back past about 3 months for a pace line for bottom level claimers unless they have some super works and line 1 was at this distance.

On the 4,
I never use an off track pace line unless it is the only one.

In any event none of these lines put them in the % med ball park.

I got 6 out of 10 last night and one of them in the top 2 in race #4 paid over $30.

One could say it was a good night.

If I had an easy way to make a track model using E/L I would do it.
I'm open to suggestions.

Froggy

[admin]

Doc asked me once to do something
He asked me to keep track of what the winners
E/L readout was and to just add 1 thing
what the horse paid

I did this for about 60 races at philly
I made seperate models for
5.5, 6.0, 6.5, and 7.0 and the 8.0 8.3, all on the dirt

I sent it to Doc he was very impressed and told me he would put it into the follow up but it never made it.
Anyway what I saw was most winner were in a cluster of about
8-10 points the ones that were too early paid less
or Very high
The ones that were later than ave. paid better

Thanks for the recap of your pace line selectoin
It was very interesting .

I just went best of the last 3
and against the projected pace
Oh by the way We both were
dead on on our projected pace
estimates I checked the charts and
I believe it was 22.3 and 46.4

Nice work
Bill