Top Horse is "best" - Myth??

[RichieP]

Shoe's thread got me interested in some stuff easily checkable by referencing records. First off thank you big bro for making us THINK.

Ok is the best or top ranked horse the way to go? The following is this week's numbers using computer paying NO attention to anything but numbers. No class,trainer,layoffs etc.

This is 1000% mechanical folks from contenders to line selection. See if there is something you can take from it.

I bet 59 races using the Matchup and raw pp's in addition to these races. They are NOT included in this mix.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
66 races worked:

#1 ranked Bl/bl horse won 17 races at payoffs of:
6.20
14.10
5.40
5.60
4.80
8.80
7.80
6.40
5.40
8.00
9.20
8.20
7.60
10.70
4.80
4.80
14.40

#2 ranked Bl/bl horse won 15 races at payoffs of:
22.60
32.20
6.60
9.10
15.30
9.80
9.80
57.40
4.60
8.00
20.00
11.60
6.60
32.60
17.40

#3 ranked Bl/bl horse won 11 races at payoffs of:
16.80
6.20
21.40
7.20
5.80
4.00
10.40
5.60
11.80
6.40
41.20

Now to the early/late performance. Same 66 race dataset.

#1 ranked Epr horse won 14 races at payoffs of:
5.80
16.80
22.60
9.10
9.80
5.40
5.40
9.80
7.80
9.20
7.60
4.00
14.40
3.20

#1 ranked Lpr horse won 18 races at payoffs of:
6.60
14.10
6.20
5.60
4.80
57.40
10.00
7.60
10.70
16.10
5.80
4.80
4.80
32.60
5.60
11.80
27.20
41.20

These races are all surfaces and include maiden races. So while the#1 ranked Bl/bl horse outperformed other 2 tiers of Bl/bl is it really "best" to be on the top horse?

Food for thought I hope.
Richie

[admin]

wow Rich The second place BLBL sure pays the best

I have a question how do you determin who the best is on the early late
the biggest stick early or late?

or the total energy readout?

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by admin

I have a question how do you determin who the best is on the early late
the biggest stick early or late?

Early data is the Epr read on superscreen
Late data is the Lpr read on supercreen.

Simple basic stuff Bill. Really

[gl45]

Richie,
the only think I can see is: You selected the right pace lines. Nothing else.
Pino

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by lbj

Richie,
the only think I can see is: You selected the right pace lines.
Pino

If that's the case paisan then the "best" horse should outperform everything else. Isn't that an accurate statement thinking "logically"? So why doesn't it actually work that way ???


Food for thought and please remember the title of the thread.

Ciao
Richie

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by RichieP

If that's the case paisan then the "best" horse should outperform everything else. Isn't that an accurate statement thinking "logically"? So why doesn't it actually work that way ???


Food for thought and please remember the title of the thread.

Ciao
Richie

Rich, good example. Statistics or studies of this type help putting things in perspective as to always thinking the highest rated is necessarily the best. I am guilty of that from time to time especially if I am feeling lazy about handicapping deeper.

Did you use best SR or best Total Energy and I must assume it was from last three races?

Thanks,

Robert

[admin]

Thanks Rich

Sorry for the confusion i saw early/late

Hey BTW

Queen Jelly Bean Is running in the 8th at Philly
alittle late in the day
JellyBean

Bill

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by mufasa

Rich, good example. Statistics or studies of this type help putting things in perspective as to always thinking the highest rated is necessarily the best. I am guilty of that from time to time especially if I am feeling lazy about handicapping deeper.

Did you use best SR or best Total Energy and I must assume it was from last three races?

Thanks,

Robert

Rich, in case I did not make myself to clear with the post I am asking did you use as your pace line selection best SR last three races (or other) or did you consider best Total Energy last three races (or again other).

Thanks,

Robert

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mufasa

Rich, in case I did not make myself to clear with the post I am asking did you use as your pace line selection best SR last three races (or other) or did you consider best Total Energy last three races (or again other).

Thanks,

Robert

Robert
I did this:
http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2856

[socantra]

Originally Posted by RichieP

If that's the case paisan then the "best" horse should outperform everything else. Isn't that an accurate statement thinking "logically"? So why doesn't it actually work that way ???E

Food for thought and please remember the title of the thread.

Ciao
Richie

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that we are not looking for the horse who has run the best race. We are looking for the horse who is going to run the best race.

Good research. And thanks for the reminder that Doc spent the last few years of the Follow Up trying to drive home to us that mutuels on the late end are quite often much better.

Dick