As the Derby approaches

[Tim Y]

Remember (I am not going to repeat the standards just yet as it is too soon) as the babies stretch out toward the big dance the first Saturday in May, several "name brands" are going to tell you by a combination of decreasing total energy and increasing percent median, that they are NOT going to make it to the next step.

Any of the colts with races that follow this all too familiar pattern of let's say 67.5, 68, 68.4 (in their last three distance preps) are telling you that 10 furlongs is TOO FAR for them, particularly if the early fractions are close to the same. They are running out of energy earlier and earlier. Patterns in the 67.2 to 67.7 with steady or increasing total energy are what you really want to see. Remember that they are allowed to stub their toe (as did Unbridled, Giacomo etc) with one lesser race before the big effort, but NOT three in a row.

This pattern has eliminated many an odds on colt and I am sure it will again. Watch them as they head toward Louisville. It has happened EVERY YEAR for the past 10.

[lsosa54]

I would think SP and HE would be strong factors for the Derby, but not just one run 3F types.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by lsosa54

I would think SP and HE would be strong factors for the Derby, but not just one run 3F types.

Those are expressing the same things. You always have to look at then as a tend of at least three efforts. Bob n' John (one of the favorites in the Belmont) was eliminated on that increasing trend alone and he stopped like a cheap watch because his numbers were screaming distance limitation.

The odd ball in that string was Barbaro, who helped define a style I had believed many others (Creme Fraiche, Hard Spun, and Nashua for example) showed: POSITIONAL FRONT RUNNERS who stay "just ahead" no matter how fast or slow the pace and have no set ESP style.