How do you know? - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 05-10-2009, 12:33 PM

Mr Charlie,You asked if a 74 and change would make this horse a contender[i think you meant 47 and change].How do you know that will be the pace of todays race?Every race is different and unless your an expert of projecting pace[which i doubt very seriously]you dont know.Why do you think only a handful of people can do it?I never met Hat but did talk to a couple of people who knew him and it seems he would extract times from different pacelines to come up with a projected pace.Until you can do that you really dont know what it is.As far as Im concerned there are only 2 people here on board that can come close to doing the match up and that would be Richie and Emilio.

It's funny how quite a few people say how Pizzolla's fulcrum methods are out of whack,but do they really know what the fulcrum is supposed to accomplish.It is a contender guide but your supposed to set a conservative time for it,it's not just so you are able to get rid of a bunch of horses.Your also supposed to leave in horses if they are 2\5th of a tick off.In my opinion this would be a much better way to project a pace of the race.

Charlie D · 05-10-2009, 12:55 PM

You don't know what the Pace will be, this is why it is called a Pace PROJECTION

Projection: calculation of some future thing

You come on here AFTER the fact posting this that and tuther, come on before and show your expertise, in other words. PUT UP or SHUT UP

Hi Jeff and Charlie Please just take a deep breath
Please be good guys There is so much good that can be learned and shared

I just want to have a friendly place !!
come on guys help me out

Thanks
Bill

shoeless · 05-10-2009, 01:08 PM

Getting a little testy and not treating others respectfully,better be careful BIG BROTHER is watching

Hi Jeff and Charlie Please just take a deep breath
Please be good guys There is so much good that can be learned and shared

I just want to have a friendly place !!
come on guys help me out

Thanks
Bill

gandalf380 · 05-10-2009, 01:20 PM

Hey Charlie D

For what its worth, I always had my best results when I try to project the pace of the race. To some extent, it is guesswork, but you can come awfully close most of the time as horses tend to be creatures of habit. In my opinion, it is extremely difficult to handicap a race without having an inkling of the pace of the race.

Charlie B

Charlie D · 05-10-2009, 01:31 PM

Bill I agree with you there is so much good that can be learned and shared - a lot of it is contained on this website

Charlie

I hope you continue to have your best results using the Projected Pace method.

Bill V. · 05-10-2009, 01:53 PM

Hello guys

Thanks

Just my idea but I find after looking at the basic best paceline of the last three races at a comparable distance I get a good idea of the projected
pace from the adjusted screen on RDSS

This is from Finger Lakes todays first race

Bill V. · 05-10-2009, 01:57 PM

here is what did happen

05-10-2009, 12:33 PM	#1
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,614	How do you know? Mr Charlie,You asked if a 74 and change would make this horse a contender[i think you meant 47 and change].How do you know that will be the pace of todays race?Every race is different and unless your an expert of projecting pace[which i doubt very seriously]you dont know.Why do you think only a handful of people can do it?I never met Hat but did talk to a couple of people who knew him and it seems he would extract times from different pacelines to come up with a projected pace.Until you can do that you really dont know what it is.As far as Im concerned there are only 2 people here on board that can come close to doing the match up and that would be Richie and Emilio. It's funny how quite a few people say how Pizzolla's fulcrum methods are out of whack,but do they really know what the fulcrum is supposed to accomplish.It is a contender guide but your supposed to set a conservative time for it,it's not just so you are able to get rid of a bunch of horses.Your also supposed to leave in horses if they are 2\5th of a tick off.In my opinion this would be a much better way to project a pace of the race.

05-10-2009, 12:55 PM	#2
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	You don't know what the Pace will be, this is why it is called a Pace PROJECTION Projection: calculation of some future thing You come on here AFTER the fact posting this that and tuther, come on before and show your expertise, in other words. PUT UP or SHUT UP Hi Jeff and Charlie Please just take a deep breath Please be good guys There is so much good that can be learned and shared I just want to have a friendly place !! come on guys help me out Thanks Bill __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Bill V.; 05-10-2009 at 01:19 PM.

05-10-2009, 01:08 PM	#3
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,614	Getting a little testy and not treating others respectfully,better be careful BIG BROTHER is watching Hi Jeff and Charlie Please just take a deep breath Please be good guys There is so much good that can be learned and shared I just want to have a friendly place !! come on guys help me out Thanks Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 05-10-2009 at 01:19 PM.

05-10-2009, 01:31 PM	#5
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Bill I agree with you there is so much good that can be learned and shared - a lot of it is contained on this website Charlie I hope you continue to have your best results using the Projected Pace method. __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

05-10-2009, 01:53 PM	#6
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Pp Hello guys Thanks Just my idea but I find after looking at the basic best paceline of the last three races at a comparable distance I get a good idea of the projected pace from the adjusted screen on RDSS This is from Finger Lakes todays first race Attached Images

05-10-2009, 01:20 PM	#4
gandalf380 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: central islip ny Posts: 1,196	Hey Charlie D For what its worth, I always had my best results when I try to project the pace of the race. To some extent, it is guesswork, but you can come awfully close most of the time as horses tend to be creatures of habit. In my opinion, it is extremely difficult to handicap a race without having an inkling of the pace of the race. Charlie B

05-10-2009, 01:57 PM	#7
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Results here is what did happen Attached Images